Comparison Of Three Uncertainty-Analysis Methods To Assess Impacts On Groundwater Of Constituents Leached From Land-Disposed Waste

Assessment of the environmental fate and behavior of constituents that have the potential to leach from waste-disposal pits that are associated with petroleum exploration and production activities is a problem of interest to industry and regulatory agencies. A stochastic modeling approach for the migration of constituents in soil and groundwater was developed to assess the impact on groundwater at receptors that are downgradient from a waste pit. The model evaluates uncertainties in constituent concentrations in groundwater due to uncertainties in waste-composition and hydrogeologic properties of waste sites, and it determines the probability distributions of constituent concentration at receptor points by using Monte Carlo (MC), First-Order (FO), and Point-Estimate (PE) methods. Application of the FO and PE methods to assess probability distributions requires an assumption of the form of the probability density function for concentration at a receptor point. A log-normal distribution is employed here. A comparison of the three uncertainty-analysis methods is performed to evaluate the efficiency and accuracy of the FO and PE methods relative to the MC method. Results suggest that for non-reactive and conservative constituents the level of accuracy provided by FO method is similar to that of the MC method. The computational effort for the FO method is about 1 percent of that for the MC method. For nonconservative constituents, the FO method compared less favorably with the MC results. Thus, the use of the MC method is warranted, for nonconservative constituents or for cases where a higher degree of precision in the probability distribution is needed. RÉSUMÉ: L'industrie et les organismes de contrôle s'intéressent particulièrement au problème de la prédiction du devenir et du comportement environnemental de composés susceptibles de lixivier des pollutants à partir de puits de stockage de déchets associés à des zones d'exploration et de production pétrolières. Une modélisation stochastique de la migration de composées dans le sol et les eaux souterraines est proposée en vue de prédire l'impact sur les eaux souterraines en des points de prélèvement situés en aval-gradient d'un puits de stockage. Le modèle fournit une estimation des incertitudes sur les teneurs des composés dans les eaux souterraines en fonction de la composition des déchets et des propriétés hydrogéologiques des sites de stockage; il détermine les distributions de probabilité de la concentration des composés à des points de prélèvement au moyen des méthodes de Monte-Carlo (MC), du Premier Ordre (PO) et de l'Estimation Ponctuelle (EP). Le recours aux méthodes PO et EP pour prédire les distributions de probabilité impose une hypothèse sur la forme de la fonction de densité de probabilité pour la concentration en un point de prélèvement. Une distrubution log-normale est utilisée ici. Une comparaison des trois méthodes d'analyse de l'incertude a été réalisée afin d'estimer l'efficacité et la précision des méthodes PO et EP par rapport à la méthode MC. Les résultats indiquent que, pour des composés conservatifs, le degré de précision atteint par la méthode PO est comparable à celle de la méthode MC. La puissance de calcul requise par la méthode PO est 1% environ de celle nécessaire pour la méthode MC. Pour des composés non conservatifs, la comparaison avec la méthode MC est moins favorable à la méthode PO. Par conséquent, la méthode MC est préférable pour les composés non conservatifs ou dans les cas où un meilleur degré de précision de la distribution de probabilité est nécessaire. RESUMEN: La evaluación del comportamiento de constituyentes lixiviables desde vertidos de residuos asociados a actividades de exploración y producción petrolífera, así como su posible impacto ambiental, es un problema de interés para la industria y las agencias reguladoras. Se ha desarrollado una modelación estocástica para estudiar la migración de los constituyentes en el suelo y el agua subterránea, con el objetivo de evaluar su impacto en receptores situados aguas abajo de un vertido. El modelo evalúa las incertidumbres en las concentraciones de los constituyentes debidas a las incertidumbre en la composición de los residuos y de las propiedades hidrogeológicas de la zona de vertido y determina las distribuciones de probabilidad de dichas concentraciones en puntos de recepción mediante los métodos de Monte Carlo (MC), Primer-Orden (FO) y Estimación Puntual (PE). La aplicación de los métodos FO y PE para evaluar las distribuciones de probabilidad reqiere suponer conocida la forma de la función de densidad de probabilidad para la concentración en el punto receptor. En este caso, se emplea una distribución log-normal. Se lleva a cabo una comparación entre los tres métodos de análisis de errores para evaluar la eficiencia y exactitud de los métodos FO y PE respecto al MC. Los resultados sugieren que para constituyentes conservativos no-reactivos, el nivel de exactitud suministrado por el método FO es comparable con el del MC. El esfuerzo computacional para el método FO, en cambio, es alrededor del 1% del método MC. Para constituyentes no conservativos, es método FO no compara tan favorablemente frente a los resultados del MC. Por tanto, el uso del método MC está obligado para constituyentes no conservativos y para casos en los que se requiere un alto nivel de precisión en la distribución de probabilidad.     

Der Werdegang der Geosynklinale

Zusammenfassung In der geosynklinalen Vorgeschichte mancher Kettengebirge gibt es zwei Phasen mit verschiedener paläogeographischer Konfiguration: 1. mit Dehnungstektonik, 2. mit Kompressionstektonik. Der Höhepunkt der vororogenen magmatischen Tätigkeit fällt in eine Zwischenphase mit geringerem submarinem Relief.Kurzfassung eines am 12. März 1960 vor der Geologischen Vereinigung gehaltenen Vortrages. Eine ausführliche Arbeit über die Geosynklinalentwicklung der Westalpen (mit umfangreichem Literaturverzeichnis) erschien im Bull. Geol. Soc. America, Juni 1960, unter dem Titel Paleotectonic Evolution of the Central and Western Alps.     

Genetic relationship between silver–lead–zinc mineralization in the Wutong deposit,Guangxi Province and Mesozoic granitic magmatism in the Nanling belt,southeast China

More than 50 % of the world's total reserves of tungsten are in China and most tungsten deposits are located in the Nanling range in southeast China. This study explores the potential genetic relationship between tungsten–tin (W–Sn) mineralization and shallower Ag–Pb–Zn deposits in the Nanling range based on data from the Wutong deposit, Guangxi Province. The lead, oxygen, carbon, sulfur, and strontium isotopic compositions of minerals at Wutong indicate that a single crustal-derived fluid was responsible for mineralization. Wutong likely formed at relatively low temperatures (～200–300 °C) and low pressures, as indicated by the similarity between homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions and those estimated from S isotopic compositions of minerals. The hübnerite age (92.3–104.4 Ma) indicates that the Wutong mineralization is likely related to nearby Late Yanshanian (Cretaceous) S-type granites derived from Proterozoic crust. This mineralization event coincides with the last W–Sn mineralization event and the Cretaceous peak of mineralization in the Nanling range.     

The Association of Solar Flares with Coronal Mass Ejections During the Extended Solar Minimum

We study the association of solar flares with coronal mass ejections (CMEs) during the deep, extended solar minimum of 2007?–?2009, using extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) and white-light (coronagraph) images from the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO). Although all of the fast (v>900 km?s^?1), wide (θ>100^°) CMEs are associated with a flare that is at least identified in GOES soft X-ray light curves, a majority of flares with relatively high X-ray intensity for the deep solar minimum (e.g. ?1×10^?6 W?m^?2 or C1) are not associated with CMEs. Intense flares tend to occur in active regions with a strong and complex photospheric magnetic field, but the active regions that produce CME-associated flares tend to be small, including those that have no sunspots and therefore no NOAA active-region numbers. Other factors on scales similar to and larger than active regions seem to exist that contribute to the association of flares with CMEs. We find the possible low coronal signatures of CMEs, namely eruptions, dimmings, EUV waves, and Type III bursts, in 91 %, 74 %, 57 %, and 74 %, respectively, of the 35 flares that we associate with CMEs. None of these observables can fully replace direct observations of CMEs by coronagraphs.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Eastern Marmara Region

The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard in Eastern Marmara Region using an improved probabilistic seismic hazard assessment methodology. Two significant improvements over the previous seismic hazard assessment practices are accomplished in this study: advanced seismic source characterization models in terms of source geometry and recurrence relationships are developed, and improved global ground motion models (NGA-W1 models) are employed to represent the ground motion variability. Planar fault segments are defined and a composite magnitude distribution model is used for all seismic sources in the region to properly represent the characteristic behavior of the North Anatolian Fault without the need for an additional background zone. Multi-segment ruptures are considered using the rupture model proposed by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003). Events in the earthquake catalogue are attributed to the fault zones and scenario weights are determined by releasing the accumulated seismic energy. The uniform hazard spectra at 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years hazard level for different soil conditions (soil and rock) are revealed for specific locations in the region (Adapazar?, Düzce, Gemlik, Izmit, Iznik and Sapanca). Hazard maps of the region for rock site conditions at the selected hazard levels are provided to allow the readers perform site-specific hazard assessment and develop site-specific design spectrum for local site conditions.     

Andalusite in granulites of the bohemian massif

Summary In granulites of South-Bohemia not only the usually occurring Al₂SiO₅ polymorphs, kyanite and sillimanite, were found but also andalusite. Its presence indicates that the metamorphic development of these granulites is characterized by a high PT-gradient. The granulitic rocks of the Bohemian Massif can be regarded as a facies series ranging from the granulite facies through the amphibolite facies to the hornblende-hornfels facies. The lower limit of the PT-conditions of this series should be placed below the position of the triple point of Al₂SiO₅.

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Andalusit in Granuliten der Böhmischen Masse

Zusammenfassung In den Mineralparagenesen der südböhmischen Granulite wurde neben den üblicherweise auftretenden Al₂SiO₅-Modifikationen, Disthen und Sillimanit, auch Andalusit gefunden. Seine Anwesenheit weist darauf hin, daß die metamorphe Entwicklung der erwähnten Granulite durch einen ausgeprägten PT-Gradienten gekennzeichnet wurde. Die Granulitgesteine der Böhmischen Masse kann man als eine Faziesserie ansehen, die von der Granulitfazies über die Amphibolitfazies bis in die Hornblende-Hornfelsfazies reicht. Die untere Grenze der PT-Bedingungen dieser Serie ist unter die Lage des Tripelpunktes von Al₂SiO₅ zu setzen.

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With 5 Figures     

Stress Measurement by Overcoring at Shallow Depths in a Rock Slope: the Scattering of Input Data and Results

This paper describes a field experiment of stress measurement using the overcoring method performed in a rock slope, called Rochers de Valabres (located in France’s Southern Alps Region), a field laboratory site prone to rockfalls. Six measurements were conducted at shallow depths from the surface, moving deeper along a sub-horizontal borehole. The experiment was conducted in heterogeneous and anisotropic gneiss, with the overcored rock elastic properties, as evaluated by biaxial and uniaxial tests, being widely scattered. Since stress calculations are sensitive to all input data uncertainties, strain inversion was, thus, performed using an experimental device and Monte Carlo simulations. The experimental device allows the assessment of rather broad confidence intervals for both stress magnitude and orientation. The results indicate that the stress state in the surface area is quite heterogeneous and may be correlated with topography. The measurements show a nonlinear stress distribution with distance to the free surface, along with high values of principal stresses, despite the vicinity of the surface. Although influenced by local topography, orientations of the principal computed stresses are characterized by a high turnover due to local heterogeneities. The results are roughly in accordance to a 2D finite element model of the site.     

Onset of magmatic accretion within a magma-poor rifted margin: a case study from the Platta ocean-continent transition, eastern Switzerland

Exhumation of subcontinental mantle rocks and its exposure at the seafloor is known from different magma-poor passive continental margins. However, the transition from largely amagmatic passive rifting to seafloor spreading is still poorly documented. In this contribution we use MOR-type gabbroic and basaltic rocks to characterize the magmatism associated with the formation of an ancient ocean-continent transition preserved in the Platta nappe, eastern Switzerland. Gabbros form individual small intrusions into exhumed serpentinized subcontinental mantle rocks. Mineral and bulk-rock chemistry and simple modeling indicate that each gabbro body records different magmatic processes ranging from predominantly fractional crystallization to solidification without fractionation. Mg numbers and Ni contents of equilibrium olivine calculated from basalts and gabbros indicate that few mafic rocks are primary melts but most represent fractionated compositions ranging from T- to N-MORB. Whereas most mafic rocks may be explained by low to moderate degrees of melting of an N-MORB-type mantle, the source of some basalt is enriched in incompatible elements. This compositional variation seems to correlate with the spatial distribution of the mafic rocks within the ocean-continent transition whereby mafic rocks with T-MORB signatures occur close to the continental margin whereas N-MORB signatures are predominantly found oceanwards. As in an opening system time and space are closely linked, the chemical evolution of the mafic rocks along the ocean-continent transitions suggests continuous thinning of the subcontinental mantle and associated uplift of the underlying asthenosphere during the time between the crustal and the lithospheric breakup.     

Using subsurface metazoan fauna to indicate groundwater–surface water interactions in the Nakdong River floodplain, South Korea

Hydrological interactions between surface water and groundwater (GW) can be described using hydrochemical and biological methods. Surface water–groundwater interactions and their effects on groundwater invertebrate communities were studied in the Nakdong River floodplain in South Korea. Furthermore, the GW-Fauna-Index, a promising new index for assessing the strength of surface-water influence on groundwater, was tested. The influence of surface water on groundwater decreased with increasing depth and distance from the river. While hydrochemistry prevailingly reflected the origin of the waters in the study area (i.e. whether alluvial or from adjacent rock), faunal communities seemed to display an affinity to surface-water intrusion. Fauna reacted quickly to changes in hydrology, and temporal changes in faunal community structure were significantly linked to the hydrological situation in the floodplain. The metazoan faunal community and the GW-Fauna-Index allow a distinction between surface and subsurface waters with varying degrees of exchange. The results indicate that hydrological conditions are reflected by faunal assemblages on a high spatiotemporal resolution, and that surface-water intrusion can be estimated using the GW-Fauna-Index.