Westward moving dynamic substorm features observed with the IMAGE magnetometer network and other ground-based instruments

We present the ground signatures of dynamic substorm features with particular emphasis on the event interpretation capabilities provided by the IMAGE magnetometer network. This array covers the high latitudes from the sub-auroral to the cusp/cleft region. An isolated substorm on 11 Oct. 1993 during the late evening hours exhibited many of well-known features such as the Harang discontinuity, westward travelling surge and poleward leap, but also discrete auroral forms, known as auroral streamers, appeared propagating westward along the centre of the electrojet. Besides the magnetic field measurements, there were auroral observations and plasma flow and conductivity measurements obtained by EISCAT. The data of all three sets of instruments are consistent with the notion of upward field-aligned currents associated with the moving auroral patches. A detailed analysis of the electro-dynamic parameters in the ionosphere, however, reveals that they do not agree with the expectations resulting from commonly used simplifying approximations. For example, the westward moving auroral streamers which are associated with field-aligned current filaments, are not collocated with the centres of equivalent current vortices. Furthermore, there is a clear discrepancy between the measured plasma flow direction and the obtained equivalent current direction. All this suggests that steep conductivity gradients are associated with the transient auroral forms. Also self-induction effects in the ionosphere may play a role for the orientation of the plasma flows. This study stresses the importance of multi-instrument observation for a reliable interpretation of dynamic auroral processes.     

Forward induced seismic hazard assessment: application to a synthetic seismicity catalogue from hydraulic stimulation modelling

The M _w 3.2-induced seismic event in 2006 due to fluid injection at the Basel geothermal site in Switzerland was the starting point for an ongoing discussion in Europe on the potential risk of hydraulic stimulation in general. In particular, further development of mitigation strategies of induced seismic events of economic concern became a hot topic in geosciences and geoengineering. Here, we present a workflow to assess the hazard of induced seismicity in terms of occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The workflow is called Forward Induced Seismic Hazard Assessment (FISHA) as it combines the results of forward hydromechanical-numerical models with methods of time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard assessment. To exemplify FISHA, we use simulations of four different fluid injection types with various injection parameters, i.e. injection rate, duration and style of injection. The hydromechanical-numerical model applied in this study represents a geothermal reservoir with preexisting fractures where a routine of viscous fluid flow in porous media is implemented from which flow and pressure driven failures of rock matrix and preexisting fractures are simulated, and corresponding seismic moment magnitudes are computed. The resulting synthetic catalogues of induced seismicity, including event location, occurrence time and magnitude, are used to calibrate the magnitude completeness M _c and the parameters a and b of the frequency-magnitude relation. These are used to estimate the time-dependent occurrence rate of induced seismic events for each fluid injection scenario. In contrast to other mitigation strategies that rely on real-time data or already obtained catalogues, we can perform various synthetic experiments with the same initial conditions. Thus, the advantage of FISHA is that it can quantify hazard from numerical experiments and recommend a priori a stimulation type that lowers the occurrence rate of induced seismic events. The FISHA workflow is rather general and not limited to the hydromechanical-numerical model used in this study and can therefore be applied to other fluid injection models.     

Buried paleo-channels on the New Jersey continental margin: channel porosity structures from electromagnetic surveying

We report on a marine electromagnetic (EM) survey across two portions of the New Jersey continental margin that have been previously shown to contain buried paleo-channels. The EM method used provides bulk porosity estimates to depths of around 20 m below the seafloor and is thus able to place porosity constraints on the nature of the channel infill and the contrast in physical properties across the channel boundaries. Our data show that a key condition for the channels to have an electrical signature is that they incise an underlying regional unconformity, R, thought to represent a subaerially eroded surface, exposed during the late Wisconsinan glaciation. Channels that cut R are seen through increases in apparent porosity. Another seismically imaged channel sequence, which lies within the outer-shelf sediment wedge sequence above R, does not have an electrical signature, indicating that the sediments above and below the channel boundaries have similar physical properties.     

Sea level variability at Antalya and Mente? tide gauges in Turkey: atmospheric, steric and land motion contributions

Sea level trends and interannual variability at Antalya and Menteş tide gauges are investigated during the 1985–2001 period, quantifying the roles of atmospheric, steric and local land motion contributions. Tide gauge sea level measurements, temperature/salinity climatologies and GPS data are used in the analyses and the results are compared with the output of a barotropic model forced by atmospheric pressure and wind. The overall sea level trends at two tide gauges collocated with GPS are in the range of 5.5 to 7.9 mm/yr during the study period, but showing different behaviour in the sub-periods 1985–1993 and 1993–2001 due to variations in the contributing factors both in space and time. After the removal of the atmospheric forcing and steric contribution from sea level records, the resulting trends vary between 1.9 to 4.5 mm/yr in Antalya and −1.2 to −11.6 mm/yr in Menteş depending on the period considered. Vertical land movement estimated from GPS data seems to explain the high positive residual trend in Antalya during the whole period. On the other hand, the source of the highly negative sea level trend of about −14 mm/yr in Menteş during 1985–1993 could not be resolved with the available datasets. Interannual variability of wind and atmospheric pressure appear to dominate the sea level at both tide gauges during the study period. Atmospheric and steric contributions together account for ∼50% of the total sea level variance at interannual time scales. Mass induced sea level variations which were not considered in this study may help to close the sea level trend budgets as well as to better explain the interannual sea level variance.     

Controls on sediment evacuation from glacially modified and unmodified catchments in the eastern Sierra Nevada,California

The degree of glacial modification in small catchments along the eastern Sierra Nevada, California, controls the timing and pattern of sediment flux to the adjacent fans. There is a close relationship between the depth of fan‐head incision and the pattern and degree of Late Pleistocene catchment erosion by valley glaciers; catchments with significant glacial activity are associated with deeply incised fan heads, whereas fans emerging from glacially unmodified catchments are unincised. We suggest that the depth of fan‐head incision is controlled by the potential for sediment storage during relatively dry ice‐free periods, which in turn is related to the downstream length of the glacially modified valley and creation of accommodation through valley floor slope lowering and glacial valley overdeepening and widening. Significant storage in glacially modified basins during ice‐free periods leads to sediment supply‐limited conditions at the fan head and causes deep incision. In contrast, a lack of sediment trapping allows quasi‐continuous sediment supply to the fan and prevents incision of the fan head. Sediment evacuation rates should thus show large variations in glacially modified basins, with major peaks during glacial and lows during interglacial or ice‐free periods, respectively. In contrast, sediment removal from glacially unmodified catchments in this type of setting should be free of this effect, and will be dominated instead by short‐term variations, modulated for example by changes in vegetation cover or storm frequency. This distinction may help improve our understanding of long‐term sediment yields as a measure of erosional efficiency. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PULSE: a finite element code for solving adiabatic nonradial pulsation equations

We briefly present the nonradial adiabatic pulsation code PULSE first developped for white dwarf asteroseismology and now used to compute adiabatic oscillation properties for various types of stellar objects. Numerical tests show that the code is able to provide the accuracy (for a given stellar model) required to deal with the precision in frequency expected from the COROT long runs. While the ultimate objective is to compare the output of various pulsation codes (see these proceedings), we already emphasize problems that need to be addressed concerning, in particular, the mesh resolution of the input stellar models and its impact on the accuracy at which frequencies can be computed.     

Neural network and wavelet conjunction model for modelling monthly level fluctuations in Turkey

This paper proposes the application of a conjunction model (neuro‐wavelet) for forecasting monthly lake levels. The neuro‐wavelet (NW) conjunction model is improved combining two methods, discrete wavelet transform and artificial neural networks. The application of the methodology is presented for the Lake Van, which is the biggest lake in Turkey, and Lake Egirdir. The accuracy of the NW model is investigated for 1‐ and 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting. The root mean square errors, mean absolute relative errors and determination coefficient statistics are used for evaluating the accuracy of NW models. The results of the proposed models are compared with those of the neural networks. In the 1‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 87–34% and 86–31% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. In the 6‐month‐ahead lake level forecasting, the NW conjunction model reduced the root mean square errors and mean absolute relative errors by 34–48% and 30‐46% for the Van and Egirdir lakes, respectively. The comparison results indicate that the suggested model could significantly increase the short‐ and long‐term forecast accuracy. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suitable gravity interpolation technique for large data gaps in Africa

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica - The gravity database for the IAG African Geoid Project contains significantly large data gaps. These large data gaps affect the interpolation precision of the...     

Solar Microwave Bursts from Electron Populations with a 'Broken’ Energy Spectrum

Usually the gyrosynchrotron emission of microwave bursts from electron populations with a power-law (PL) energy distribution has been considered under the assumption that the spectral index of the distribution is constant over a wide range of energies. Meanwhile, there is strong evidence, in particular from hard X-ray and -ray, but also from cm/mm wavelength radio observations, that in many solar flare events the spectrum of the emitting electrons is characterized by a significant hardening at energies above 100–500 keV. We present some examples of calculated microwave burst spectra at cm/mm wavelengths taking into account the above evidence. It is shown that a break in the energy spectrum of the PL electrons can indeed result in a spectral hardening sometimes observed in microwave bursts at frequencies above 10–30 GHz.     

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