Atmospheric circulation in regional climate models over Central Europe: links to surface air temperature and the influence of driving data

The study examines simulation of atmospheric circulation, represented by circulation indices (flow direction, strength and vorticity), and links between circulation and daily surface air temperatures in regional climate models (RCMs) over Central Europe. We explore control simulations of five high-resolution RCMs from the ENSEMBLES project driven by re-analysis (ERA-40) and the same global climate model (ECHAM5 GCM) plus of one RCM (RCA) driven by different GCMs. The aims are to (1) identify errors in RCM-simulated distributions of circulation indices in individual seasons, (2) identify errors in simulated temperatures under particular circulation indices, and (3) compare performance of individual RCMs with respect to the driving data. Although most of the RCMs qualitatively reflect observed distributions of the airflow indices, each produces distributions significantly different from the observations. General biases include overestimation of the frequency of strong flow days and of strong cyclonic vorticity. Some circulation biases obviously propagate from the driving data. ECHAM5 and all simulations driven by ECHAM5 underestimate frequency of easterly flow, mainly in summer. Except for HIRHAM, however, all RCMs driven by ECHAM5 improve on the driving GCM in simulating atmospheric circulation. The influence on circulation characteristics in the nested RCM differs between GCMs, as demonstrated in a set of RCA simulations with different driving data. The driving data control on circulation in RCA is particularly weak for the BCM GCM, in which case RCA substantially modifies (but does not improve) the circulation from the driving data in both winter and summer. Those RCMs with the most distorted atmospheric circulation are HIRHAM driven by ECHAM5 and RCA driven by BCM. Relatively strong relationships between circulation indices and surface air temperatures were found in the observed data for Central Europe. The links differ by season and are usually stronger for daily maxima than minima. RCMs qualitatively reproduce these relationships. Effects of the driving model biases were found on RCMs’ performance in reproducing not only atmospheric circulation but also the links to surface temperature. However, the RCM formulation appears to be more important than the driving data in representing the latter. Differences of the circulation-to-temperature links among the RCA simulations are smaller and the links tend to be more realistic compared to the driving GCMs.     

Accuracy of Laser Ablation U-Pb Zircon Dating: Results from a Test Using Five Different Reference Zircons

Using a state‐of‐the‐art 193 nm‐LA‐MC‐ICP‐MS system and with careful control of analytical procedures, the long term external reproducibility and accuracy of the ages Phanerozoic zircons measured over a period of months using calibrator bracketing for the ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages were ca. 1% (2 RSD) if a single reference zircon was used for the matrix‐matched calibration. When different reference zircons were used for the calibration, suspicious systematic shifts in the obtained ages were observed and thus a reduction in the overall accuracy of the dating method became obvious. Such shifts were within a few percent range of the U‐Pb and Pb/Pb ages and seemed to vary independently of zircon age and composition. A “test of accuracy” experiment was conducted reducing instrumental effects as far as possible by analysing five different reference zircons mounted on a single mount eight times during the same session. An identical protocol was used for all analyses, with unchanged instrument parameters and with ion beam intensities kept as identical as possible. For data reduction, every zircon served consecutively as the reference zircon for calibration, with the others in the batch treated as unknowns. The known reference age and the four calculated ages obtained using the four other RMs for calibration were then compared. Even using such a strict analytical protocol, shifts in ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U, ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ratios were still present. They varied non‐systematically and ranged from ?4.35% to 3.08% for the investigated age range (1065 Ma to 226 Ma). Assuming the absence of instrumental effects (i.e., memory, dead‐time correction, non‐linearity of ion counters and interdetector calibration, crystallographic orientation, ablation cell geometry and setup, gas flows), the observed shifts were attributed to matrix and/or ablation related effects. It is proposed that non‐spectral matrix effects in the Ar plasma torch resulted in non‐uniform signal enhancement (or depression?) leading to shifts both in elemental and Pb isotopic ratios. Additionally, the ablated particle size distribution could be an important factor controlling plasma conditions and thus mass bias and fractionation. Until such effects are well understood and controlled, it would seem that any LA‐ICP‐MS zircon U‐Pb and ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb age determination cannot be meaningfully interpreted at below a ca. 3% to 4% (2 RSD) confidence level.     

Attenuation tomography of the Southern Apennines (Italy)

The aim of this study is to improve our knowledge of the attenuation structure in the Southern Apennines using a new amplitude ratio tomography method (Phillips et al., Geophys Res Lett 32(21):L21301, 2005) applied on both direct and coda envelope measurements derived from 150 events recorded by 47 stations of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia National Seismic Network (Rete Sismica Nazionale Centralizzata). The two-dimensional (2-D) analysis allows us to take into account lateral crustal variations and heterogeneities of this region. Using the same event and station distribution, we also applied a simple 1-D methodology, and the performance of the 1-D and 2-D path assumptions is tested by comparing the average interstation variance for the path-corrected amplitudes using coda and direct waves. In general, coda measurement results are more stable than using direct waves when the same methodology is applied. Using the 2-D approach, we observe more stable results for both waves. However, the improvement is quite small, probably because the crustal heterogeneity is weak. This means that, for this region, the 1-D path assumption is a good approximation of the attenuation characteristics of the region. A comparison between Q tomography images obtained using direct and coda amplitudes shows similar results, consistent with the geology of the region. In fact, we observe low Q along the Apennine chain toward the Tyrrhenian Sea and higher values to the east, in correspondence with the Gargano zone that is related to the Apulia Carbonate Platform. Finally, we compared our results with the coda Q values proposed by Bianco et al. (Geophys J Int 150:10–22, 2002) for the same region. The good agreement validates our results as the authors used a completely independent methodology.     

A transport‐distance approach to scaling erosion rates: 3. Evaluating scaling characteristics of Mahleran

In the two previous papers of this series, we demonstrated how a novel approach to erosion modelling (Mahleran – Model for Assessing Hillslope‐Landscape Erosion, Runoff And Nutrients) provided distinct advantages in terms of process representation and explicit scaling characteristics when compared with existing models. A first evaluation furthermore demonstrated the ability of the model to reproduce spatial and temporal patterns of erosion and their particle‐size characteristics on a large rainfall‐simulation plot. In this paper, we carry out a more detailed evaluation of the model using monitored erosion events on plots of different size. The evaluation uses four plots of 21·01, 115·94, 56·84 and 302·19 m², with lengths of 4·12, 14·48, 18·95 and 27·78 m, respectively, on similar soils to the rainfall‐simulation plot, for which runoff and erosion were monitored under natural rainfall. Although the model produces the correct ranking of the magnitude of erosion events, it performs less well in reproducing the absolute values and particle‐size distributions of the eroded sediment. The implications of these results are evaluated in terms of requirements for process understanding and data for parameterization of improved soil‐erosion models. We suggest that there are major weaknesses in the current understanding and data underpinning existing models. Consequently, a more holistic re‐evaluation is required that produces functional relationships for different processes that are mutually consistent, and that have appropriate parameterization data to support their use in a wide range of environmental conditions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic and oceanographic changes in the Northeast Atlantic reflected by magnetic properties of sediments deposited on the Portuguese Margin during the last 340 ka

Rock magnetic parameters measured along two giant piston cores MD95-2040 (40°34′N, 9°51′W) and MD95-2042 (37°47′N, 10°09′W) collected off the Portuguese Margin, related to other proxy-climatic data, have been used to reconstruct magnetic mineralogical changes of, in relation to environmental and climatic conditions over the North Atlantic, Western Europe and Northwest Africa during the last three climatic cycles (since isotope stage 10). Thin discrete layers containing coarse grains of titano-magnetite are associated with events of iceberg discharge during Heinrich events 1-6 [Heinrich, Quat. Res. 29 (1988) 142] that have equivalent events in isotope stages 5-8. Concentrations of fine-grained (Ti-) magnetite and hematite/goethite, varying in phase opposition, are directly linked with alternations of cold and warm climatic periods. Spectral analyses of the rock magnetic signals reveal Milankovitch periods at 100 and 41 ka, confirming the relationship with long-term climatic changes at high latitudes. The nature (Ti-magnetite) and size range of the finest ferrimagnetic fraction as well as its variation, suggest a control by deep currents carrying a colloidal/clayey fraction from remote sources (Iceland, Faeroes, mid-Atlantic Ridge). Variation of hematite/goethite contents is linked with transport by rivers and winds from the neighbouring continent. A tight correlation with the D-O cycles in Greenland ice records confirms that North Atlantic oceanic regimes and continental wind regimes were strongly influenced by millennial scale climatic changes throughout the last 350 ka.     

Interaction of wind and cold-season hydrologic processes on erosion from complex topography following wildfire in sagebrush steppe

Wildfire is a natural component of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) steppe rangelands that induces temporal shifts in plant community physiognomy, ground surface conditions, and erosion rates. Fire alteration of the vegetation structure and ground cover in these ecosystems commonly amplifies soil losses by wind- and water-driven erosion. Much of the fire-related erosion research for sagebrush steppe has focused on either erosion by wind over gentle terrain or water-driven erosion under high-intensity rainfall on complex topography. However, many sagebrush rangelands are geographically positioned in snow-dominated uplands with complex terrain in which runoff and sediment delivery occur primarily in winter months associated with cold-season hydrology. Current understanding is limited regarding fire effects on the interaction of wind- and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes for these ecosystems. In this study, we evaluated fire impacts on vegetation, ground cover, soils, and erosion across spatial scales at a snow-dominated mountainous sagebrush site over a 2-year period post-fire. Vegetation, ground cover, and soil conditions were assessed at various plot scales (8 m² to 3.42 ha) through standard field measures. Erosion was quantified through a network of silt fences (n = 24) spanning hillslope and side channel or swale areas, ranging from 0.003 to 3.42 ha in size. Sediment delivery at the watershed scale (129 ha) was assessed by suspended sediment samples of streamflow through a drop-box v-notch weir. Wildfire consumed nearly all above-ground live vegetation at the site and resulted in more than 60% bare ground (bare soil, ash, and rock) in the immediate post-fire period. Widespread wind-driven sediment loading of swales was observed over the first month post-fire and extensive snow drifts were formed in these swales each winter season during the study. In the first year, sediment yields from north- and south-facing aspects averaged 0.99–8.62 t ha⁻¹ at the short-hillslope scale (~0.004 ha), 0.02–1.65 t ha⁻¹ at the long-hillslope scale (0.02–0.46 ha), and 0.24–0.71 t ha⁻¹ at the swale scale (0.65–3.42 ha), and watershed scale sediment yield was 2.47 t ha⁻¹. By the second year post fire, foliar cover exceeded 120% across the site, but bare ground remained more than 60%. Sediment yield in the second year was greatly reduced across short- to long-hillslope scales (0.02–0.04 t ha⁻¹), but was similar to first-year measures for swale plots (0.24–0.61 t ha⁻¹) and at the watershed scale (3.05 t ha⁻¹). Nearly all the sediment collected across all spatial scales was delivered during runoff events associated with cold-season hydrologic processes, including rain-on-snow, rain-on-frozen soils, and snowmelt runoff. Approximately 85–99% of annual sediment collected across all silt fence plots each year was from swales. The high levels of sediment delivered across hillslope to watershed scales in this study are attributed to observed preferential loading of fine sediments into swale channels by aeolian processes in the immediate post-fire period and subsequent flushing of these sediments by runoff from cold-season hydrologic processes. Our results suggest that the interaction of aeolian and cold-season hydrologic-driven erosion processes is an important component for consideration in post-fire erosion assessment and prediction and can have profound implications for soil loss from these ecosystems. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An incentive mechanism for reducing emissions from conversion of intact and non-intact forests

This paper presents a new accounting mechanism in the context of the UNFCCC issue on reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries, including technical options for determining baselines of forest conversions. This proposal builds on the recent scientific achievements related to the estimation of tropical deforestation rates and to the assessment of ‘intact’ forest areas. The distinction between ‘intact’ and ‘non intact’ forests used here arises from experience with satellite-based deforestation measurements and allows accounting for carbon losses from forest degradation. The proposed accounting system would use forest area conversion rates as input data. An optimal technical solution to set baselines would be to use historical average figures during the time period from 1990 to 2005. The system introduces two different schemes to account for preserved carbon: one for countries with high forest conversion rates where the desired outcome would be a reduction in their rates, and another for countries with low rates. A ‘global’ baseline rate would be used to discriminate between these two country categories (high and low rates). For the hypothetical accounting period 2013–2017 and considering 72% of the total tropical forest domain for which data are available, the scenario of a 10% reduction of the high rates and of the preservation of low rates would result in approximately 1.6 billion tCO₂ of avoided emissions. The resulting benefits of this reduction would be shared between those high-rate countries which reduced deforestation and those low-rate countries which did not increase their deforestation over an agreed threshold (e.g., half of “global” baseline rate).