Constraining ocean diffusivity from the 8.2 ka event

Greenland ice-core data containing the 8.2 ka event are utilized by a model-data intercomparison within the Earth system model of intermediate complexity, CLIMBER-2.3 to investigate their potential for constraining the range of uncertain ocean diffusivity properties. Within a stochastic version of the model (Bauer et al. in Paleoceanography 19:PA3014, 2004) it has been possible to mimic the pronounced cooling of the 8.2 ka event with relatively good accuracy considering the timing of the event in comparison to other modelling exercises. When statistically inferring from the 8.2 ka event on diffusivity the technical difficulty arises to establish the related likelihood numerically per realisation of the uncertain model parameters: while mainstream uncertainty analyses can assume a quasi-Gaussian shape of likelihood, with weather fluctuating around a long term mean, the 8.2 ka event as a highly nonlinear effect precludes such an a priori assumption. As a result of this study the Bayesian Analysis leads to a sharp single-mode likelihood for ocean diffusivity parameters within CLIMBER-2.3. Depending on the prior distribution this likelihood leads to a reduction of uncertainty in ocean diffusivity parameters (e.g. for flat prior uncertainty in the vertical ocean diffusivity parameter is reduced by factor 2). These results highlight the potential of paleo data to constrain uncertain system properties and strongly suggest to make further steps with more complex models and richer data sets to harvest this potential.     

Managing the inconceivable: participatory assessments of impacts and responses to extreme climate change

A comprehensive understanding of the implications of extreme climate change requires an in-depth exploration of the perceptions and reactions of the affected stakeholder groups and the lay public. The project on “Atlantic sea level rise: Adaptation to imaginable worst-case climate change” (Atlantis) has studied one such case, the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet and a subsequent 5–6 m sea-level rise. Possible methods are presented for assessing the societal consequences of impacts and adaptation options in selected European regions by involving representatives of pertinent stakeholders. Results of a comprehensive review of participatory integrated assessment methods with a view to their applicability in climate impact studies are summarized including Simulation-Gaming techniques, the Policy Exercise method, and the Focus Group technique. Succinct presentations of these three methods are provided together with short summaries of relevant earlier applications to gain insights into the possible design options. Building on these insights, four basic versions of design procedures suitable for use in the Atlantis project are presented. They draw on design elements of several methods and combine them to fit the characteristics and fulfill the needs of addressing the problem of extreme sea-level rise. The selected participatory techniques and the procedure designs might well be useful in other studies assessing climate change impacts and exploring adaptation options.     

Confounding response of macrofauna from a confluence of impacts: brine and sewage pollution

Throughout the shores of the world,a confluence of different sources of pollution is common,e.g.,through outlets releasing brine,industrial,and domestic sewage.In this study,we assessed whether a combined disposal of domestic sewage and brine altered the patterns of abundance and assemblage structure of subtidal macrofauna inhabiting sandy seabeds on the south coast of Gran Canaria(Canary Islands,NE Atlantic Ocean).Samples were collected in two surveys(May 2008 and January 2009)at three distances(0,15,and30 m)away from the discharge point.Macrofaunal abundances showed different patterns with varying proximity from the disposal point in the two surveys.In May 2008,lower abundances were observed at0 m(53.89±46.82 ind.)than at 15 m(120±91.7 ind.)and 30 m(283.89±189.33 ind.)away from the disposal point.In January 2009,however,higher abundances were observed at 0 m(131.33±58.69 ind.)than at 30 m(100±24.44 ind.)and 15 m(84.78±58.39 ind.)away from the disposal point.Significant differences in macrofaunal assemblage structure were found with varying proximity from the discharge point in both surveys.The effect of proximity from the disposal point was confounded by changes in sedimentary composition between surveys,which contributed to explain differences in macrofaunal abundances and assemblage structure with varying proximity from the discharge point.As a result,confounding drivers of macrofaunal assemblage structure,here,changes in sediment composition,accounted for changes in macrofaunal abundances and assemblage structure with varying proximity from a combined disposal point of brine and sewage.     

The Košice meteorite fall: Recovery and strewn field

We provide the circumstances and details of the fireball observation, search expeditions, recovery, strewn field, and physical characteristics of the Ko?ice meteorite that fell in Slovakia on February 28, 2010. The meteorite was only the 15th case of an observed bolide with a recovered mass and subsequent orbit determination. Despite multiple eyewitness reports of the bolide, only three videos from security cameras in Hungary were used for the strewn field determination and orbit computation. Multiple expeditions of professionals and individual searchers found 218 fragments with total weight of 11.3 kg. The strewn field with the size of 5 × 3 km is characterized with respect to the space distribution of the fragments, their mass and size‐frequency distribution. This work describes a catalog of 78 fragments, mass, size, volume, fusion crust, names of discoverers, geographic location, and time of discovery, which represents the most complex study of a fresh meteorite fall. From the analytical results, we classified the Ko?ice meteorite as an ordinary H5 chondrite.     

Climate change scenarios of precipitation extremes in Central Europe from ENSEMBLES regional climate models

The study examines future scenarios of precipitation extremes over Central Europe in an ensemble of 12 regional climate model (RCM) simulations with the 25-km resolution, carried out within the European project ENSEMBLES. We apply the region-of-influence method as a pooling scheme when estimating distributions of extremes, which consists in incorporating data from a ‘region’ (set of gridboxes) when fitting an extreme value distribution in any single gridbox. The method reduces random variations in the estimates of parameters of the extreme value distribution that result from large spatial variability of heavy precipitation. Although spatial patterns differ among the models, most RCMs simulate increases in high quantiles of precipitation amounts when averaged over the area for the late-twenty-first century (2070–2099) climate in both winter and summer. The sign as well as the magnitude of the projected change vary only little for individual parts of the distribution of daily precipitation in winter. In summer, on the other hand, the projected changes increase with the quantile of the distribution in all RCMs, and they are negative (positive) for parts of the distribution below (above) the 98% quantile if averaged over the RCMs. The increases in precipitation extremes in summer are projected in spite of a pronounced drying in most RCMs. Although a rather general qualitative agreement of the models concerning the projected changes of precipitation extremes is found in both winter and summer, the uncertainties in climate change scenarios remain large and would likely further increase considerably if a more complete ensemble of RCM simulations driven by a larger suite of global models and with a range of possible scenarios of the radiative forcing is available.     

Intercomparison of Boron Isotope and Concentration Measurements. Part II: Evaluation of Results

The Istituto di Geoscienze e Georisorse (IGG), on behalf and with the support of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), prepared eight geological materials (three natural waters and five rocks and minerals), intended for a blind interlaboratory comparison of measurements of boron isotopic composition and concentration. The materials were distributed to twenty seven laboratories - virtually all those performing geochemical boron isotope analyses in the world -which agreed to participate in the intercomparison exercise. Only fifteen laboratories, however, ultimately submitted the isotopic and/or concentration results they obtained on the intercomparison materials. The results demonstrate that interlaboratory reproducibility is not well reflected by the precision values reported by the individual laboratories and this observation holds true for both boron concentration and isotopic composition. The reasons for the discrepancies include fractionations due to the chemical matrix of materials, relative shift of the zero position on the δ¹¹B scale and a lack of well characterized materials for calibrating absolute boron content measurements. The intercomparison materials are now available at the IAEA (solid materials) and IGG (waters) for future distribution.     

For a Europe of flexible regions and not of region-states divided by ethnicity

Discussion of the future of Europe continues to be a marginal political issue, partly because of the resistance of states, on both the practical (bureaucratic) and conceptual levels, created by the government leaders and heads of state. In turn, the nation-states are challenged from within by independent and separatist movements that have laid bare the fundamental hypocrisy of rhetorical discussions of the principle regarding the self-determination of peoples; interfering with states (and their borders) has proven to be a taboo for Europe. The growing flexibility of the globalised economy should be paralleled by a growing flexibility in the conception of the division and political organisation of territory, but this is not the case. Further inflexibility stems from the socio-economic inequity that we accept in our daily lives as normal, in particular as regards inequality in the use and division of territory. Equality, or better egaliberté (equality and liberty), is a sufficiently dynamic and flexible concept to be taken as a point of reference in envisaging the society, Europe, and world of tomorrow. It is only through the concept of egaliberté that we can imagine a Europe based on relations between regions that are conceived and organised on multiple scales and not as region-nations conceived on the basis of ethnicity or in the name of supposed cultural homogeneity.     

Holocene landscape reconstruction in the surroundings of the Temple of Pepi I at ancient Bubastis,southeastern Nile Delta (Egypt)

In ancient Egypt, lakes, canals, and other water bodies were an essential part of the sacred landscape in which temples were embedded. In recent years, geoarchaeological research at the site of the Temple of Bastet at Bubastis in the southeastern Nile Delta has proven the existence of two water canals surrounding the temple. It has now been investigated whether these canals were connected to the Temple of Pepi I (2300–2250 B.C.E.), located approximately 100 m to the west of the Temple of Bastet. To explore the Holocene landscape genesis of the Temple of Pepi I, 15 drillings and six geoelectrical profile lines were performed in the surroundings of the temple in spring 2022. The results show loamy to clayey sediments in deeper sections of all drillings with a maximum thickness of 1.70 m, indicating a marshy or swampy depositional environment. Based on the recovered sediment sequences and archaeological remains in the vicinity of the Temple of Pepi I, the marshy or swampy area existed before the Fourth Dynasty. During the Old Kingdom (ca. 2850–2180 B.C.E.), the former marshland either dried up through natural processes or was intentionally drained and filled with sediments for subsequent use for occupation. Regarding the original research question, there is as yet no evidence for a direct connection to the canals of the Temple of Bastet.