Development of satellite green vegetation fraction time series for use in mesoscale modeling: application to the European heat wave 2006

A method is presented for development of satellite green vegetation fraction (GVF) time series for use in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The GVF data is in the WRF model used to describe the temporal evolution of many land surface parameters, in addition to the evolution of vegetation. Several high-resolution GVF products, derived from high-quality satellite retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer images, were produced and their performance was evaluated in long-term WRF simulations. The atmospheric conditions during the 2006 heat wave year over Europe were simulated since significant interannual variability in vegetation seasonality was found. Such interannual variability is expected to increase in the coming decades due to climatic changes. The simulation using a quadratic normalized difference vegetation index to GVF relationship resulted in consistent improvements of modeled temperatures. The model mean temperature cold bias was reduced by 10 % for the whole domain and by 20–45 % in areas affected by the heat wave. The study shows that WRF simulations during heat waves and droughts, when vegetation conditions deviate from the climatology, require concurrent land surface properties in order to produce accurate results.     

Paleolithic vs. Epipaleolithic fisheries in northern Iberia

A comparison of Paleolithic and Epipaleolithic fisheries in NW Iberia shows an overall high trophic level of catch. Freshwater fisheries (and thus their impacts) are ca. 8000 yr older than marine fisheries and have suffered virtually no changes in the region except for the increase in numbers, being focused on two families (Salmonidae, and Anguillidae to a very minor extent). Marine fisheries in the Paleolithic likely had a low impact but rapidly increased in importance, raising the average trophic level of the catch, the number of affected taxa and the proportion of marine to freshwater fisheries with time.     

Metamorphic kyanite eclogites in the lufilian arc of Zambia

Eclogites formed by the Lufilian (post-Katanga) metamorphism of gabbros intruded into rocks of the Katanga System (Upper Proterozoic) occur in the Central Province of Zambia. Typical constituents of these rocks are omphacite, almandine garnet with significant contents of the pyrope and grossular components, kyanite and rutile. Eclogites from some localities display well preserved, relict ophitic texture inherited from the original gabbro. Hornblende-scapolite metagabbro and coronite metagabbro often accompany the eclogites, and metalherzolite and serpentinite occur at a few localities. The Zambian eclogites are broadly associated with a variety of relatively high-pressure, kyanite-bearing mineral assemblages some of which are possibly in the eclogite facies. It is suggested that, in addition to temperature and load pressure, fluid pressure, fluid composition (H₂O, CO₂, Cl, SO₃) and permeability of the gabbro due to deformation were important factors for the transformation of gabbro to eclogite in the environment of the Lufilian Arc.     

For a Europe of flexible regions and not of region-states divided by ethnicity

Discussion of the future of Europe continues to be a marginal political issue, partly because of the resistance of states, on both the practical (bureaucratic) and conceptual levels, created by the government leaders and heads of state. In turn, the nation-states are challenged from within by independent and separatist movements that have laid bare the fundamental hypocrisy of rhetorical discussions of the principle regarding the self-determination of peoples; interfering with states (and their borders) has proven to be a taboo for Europe. The growing flexibility of the globalised economy should be paralleled by a growing flexibility in the conception of the division and political organisation of territory, but this is not the case. Further inflexibility stems from the socio-economic inequity that we accept in our daily lives as normal, in particular as regards inequality in the use and division of territory. Equality, or better egaliberté (equality and liberty), is a sufficiently dynamic and flexible concept to be taken as a point of reference in envisaging the society, Europe, and world of tomorrow. It is only through the concept of egaliberté that we can imagine a Europe based on relations between regions that are conceived and organised on multiple scales and not as region-nations conceived on the basis of ethnicity or in the name of supposed cultural homogeneity.     

Litho-asthenospheric structures of northern Italy as inferred from teleseismic P-wave tomography

Regional three-dimensional inversions of teleseismic P-wave travel time residuals recorded by high-frequency regional and local seismic networks operating along the Western Alps and surrounding regions were carried out and lithosphere and upper mantle P-wave velocity models down to 300 km were obtained.

Residuals of more than 500 teleseismic events, recorded by 98 fixed and temporary seismic stations, have been inverted.

The comparison between real residuals and the ones obtained from tomographic model indicates that the method is able to solve the feature of the regional heterogeneities.

Where the resolution is good, coherent lithospheric and upper mantle structures are imaged. In the shallower layers, high- and low-velocity anomalies follow the structural behaviour of the Alpine-Apenninic chains showing the existence of very strong velocity contrasts. In the deepest layers, velocity contrast decreases however two deep-seated high-velocity structures are observed. The most extended in depth and approximately trending NE-SW has been interpreted as a wreck of the oldest subduction responsible of the Alpine orogenesis. The second one, connected to the northwestern sector of the Apenninic chain, appears to vanish at depths greater than 180 km and is probably due to still active Apenninic roots.

Cross-sections depict the spatial trend of perturbations and in particular outline the sub-vertical character of the Alpine and Apenninic anomalies. Under the Ligurian Sea, the 3-D inversion confirms the uplift of the asthenosphere in agreement with the tectonic evolution of the basin.     

Trends in Canadian Short‐Duration Extreme Rainfall: Including an Intensity–Duration–Frequency Perspective

Short-duration (5 minutes to 24 hours) rainfall extremes are important for a number of purposes, including engineering infrastructure design, because they represent the different meteorological scales of extreme rainfall events. Both single location and regional analyses of the changes in short-duration extreme rainfall amounts across Canada, as observed by tipping bucket rain gauges from 1965 to 2005, are presented. The single station analysis shows a general lack of a detectable trend signal, at the 5% significance level, because of the large variability and the relatively short period of record of the extreme short-duration rainfall amounts. The single station 30-minute to 24-hour durations show that, on average, 4% of the total number of stations have statistically significant increasing amounts of rainfall, whereas 1.6% of the cases have significantly decreasing amounts. However, regional spatial patterns are apparent in the single station trend results. Thus, for the same durations regional trends are presented by grouping the single station trend statistics across Canada. This regional trend analysis shows that at least two-thirds of the regions across Canada have increasing trends in extreme rainfall amounts, with up to 33% being significant (depending on location and duration). Both the southwest and the east (Newfoundland) coastal regions generally show significant increasing regional trends for 1- and 2-hour extreme rainfall durations. For the shortest durations of 5–15 minutes, the general overall regional trends in the extreme amounts are more variable, with increasing and decreasing trends occurring with similar frequency; however, there is no evidence of statistically significant decreasing regional trends in extreme rainfall amounts. The decreasing regional trends for the 5- to 15-minute duration amounts tend to be located in the St. Lawrence region of southern Quebec and in the Atlantic provinces. Additional analysis using criteria specified for traditional water management practice (e.g., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)) shows that fewer than 5.6% and 3.4% of the stations have significant increasing and decreasing trends, respectively, in extreme annual maximum single location observation amounts. This indicates that at most locations across Canada the traditional single station IDF assumption that historical extreme rainfall observations are stationary (in terms of the mean) over the period of record for an individual station is not violated. However, the trend information is still useful complementary information that can be considered for water management purposes, especially in terms of regional analysis.     

Performance of ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Central Europe using various metrics

We show the evaluation of ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis ERA40 over a region centered at the Czech Republic. Attention is paid especially to the model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ, being used as the basis of the new climate change scenarios simulation for the Czech Republic. The validation criteria used here are based on monthly or seasonal mean air temperature and precipitation. We concentrate not only on spatiotemporal mean values but also on temporal standard deviation, inter-annual variability, the mean annual cycle, and the skill of the models to represent the observed spatial patterns of these quantities. Model ALADIN-CLIMATE/CZ performs quite well in comparison to the other RCMs; we find its performance satisfactory for further use for impact studies. However, it is also shown that the results of evaluation of the RCMs’ skill in simulating observed climate strongly depend on the criteria incorporated for the evaluation.     

Biases in the diurnal temperature range in Central Europe in an ensemble of regional climate models and their possible causes

The study examines how regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce the diurnal temperature range (DTR) in their control simulations over Central Europe. We evaluate 30-year runs driven by perfect boundary conditions (the ERA40 reanalysis, 1961–1990) and a global climate model (ECHAM5) of an ensemble of RCMs with 25-km resolution from the ENSEMBLES project. The RCMs’ performance is compared against the dataset gridded from a high-density stations network. We find that all RCMs underestimate DTR in all seasons, notwithstanding whether driven by ERA40 or ECHAM5. Underestimation is largest in summer and smallest in winter in most RCMs. The relationship of the models’ errors to indices of atmospheric circulation and cloud cover is discussed to reveal possible causes of the biases. In all seasons and all simulations driven by ERA40 and ECHAM5, underestimation of DTR is larger under anticyclonic circulation and becomes smaller or negligible for cyclonic circulation. In summer and transition seasons, underestimation tends to be largest for the southeast to south flow associated with warm advection, while in winter it does not depend on flow direction. We show that the biases in DTR, which seem common to all examined RCMs, are also related to cloud cover simulation. However, there is no general tendency to overestimate total cloud amount under anticyclonic conditions in the RCMs, which suggests the large negative bias in DTR for anticyclonic circulation cannot be explained by a bias in cloudiness. Errors in simulating heat and moisture fluxes between land surface and atmosphere probably contribute to the biases in DTR as well.     

Bridging Political Expectations and Scientific Limitations in Climate Risk Management – On the Uncertain Effects of International Carbon Sink Policies<Superscript>*</Superscript>

Despite great advances in carbon cycle research during the past decade the climatic impact of terrestrial ecosystems is still highly uncertain. Although contemporary studies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere has acted as a net sink to atmospheric carbon during the past two decades, the future role of terrestrial carbon pools is most difficult to foresee. When land use change and forestry activities were included into the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the requirements for scientific precision increased significantly. At the same time the political expectations of carbon sequestration as climate mitigation strategy added uncertainties of a social kind to the study of land-atmosphere carbon exchange that have been difficult to address by conventional scientific methods. In this paper I explore how the failure to take into account the effects of direct human activity in scientific projections of future terrestrial carbon storage has resulted in a simplified appreciation of the risks embedded in a global carbon sequestration scheme. I argue that the social limits to scientific analysis must be addressed in order to accommodate these risks in future climate governance and to enable continued scientific authority in the international climate regime.