Extreme weather and economic well-being in rural Mozambique

Societies dependent on rain-fed agriculture are highly vulnerable to weather extremes; thus, linkages between rainfall variability and economic well-being merit close attention. The hypothesis of this paper is that rainfall patterns impact changes in income within our study region of central and northern Mozambique. Utilizing satellite-based estimates of rainfall analyzed within a GIS, we establish a 12-year rainfall climatology and calculate monthly rainfall anomalies for 419 villages during three growing seasons. We also approximate storm-total rainfall from tropical cyclones entering the Mozambique Channel. Hierarchical cluster analysis groups the villages according to the monthly rainfall anomalies and rainfall received from Cyclones Delfina and Japhet. Then, using data from the National Agricultural Survey of Mozambique conducted in 2002 and 2005, we relate rainfall and change in income through the calculation of Pearson’s correlation coefficients and independent-samples t tests using village-groups produced by the cluster analysis. We find that no season closely approximates the 12-year climatology and that rainfall varied among the three seasons. Although most villages experience income declines, those affected by Delfina exhibit the worst economic performance, indicating that heavy rainfall from some tropical cyclones can have long-lasting negative effects on income. Additionally, receiving above-normal rainfall may hinder economic well-being more than below-normal rainfall. Our study identifies patterns in sub-national rainfall variability and economic well-being that enable a more detailed understanding of weather-related effects on socio-economic outcomes.     

Limit Equilibrium Analyses for Internal Design of Geosynthetic Reinforced Slopes: Influence of Potential Failure Surface and Strength Distribution

The paper presents results from a computer code, based on limit equilibrium analyses, able to quantify earth pressure coefficients for the internal design of geosynthetic reinforced soil structures and identify the potential failure surfaces. Failure mechanisms assuming bilinear or logarithmic spiral failure surfaces are considered. The influence of the potential failure surface and geosynthetic strength distribution on the earth pressure coefficient is analysed. Required reinforcement tensile strengths calculated by the developed program are compared with values published in the literature. To further evaluate the capabilities of limit equilibrium analyses, the numerical modelling of a geosynthetic reinforced steep slope, designed at ultimate limit state conditions (FS = 1), is also presented. Good agreement was achieved between the potential failure surfaces predicted by limit equilibrium analyses and those obtained with numerical modelling.     

Calibration and application of a continuum damage model on the simulation of stone masonry structures: Gondar church as a case study

The conservation and rehabilitation of monuments is a matter of important investigation, and the need for accurate structural analysis, capable of effectively predicting the structural behaviour of this type of constructions, under static and dynamic loads, is increasing. Currently there are numerous computational methods and tools, supported by different theories and strategies with different levels of complexity, computation time and cost which are available to perform such analyses. A complex analysis is not always synonym of a better result and the choice of a method over another depends mostly on the purpose of the analysis. This work aims at evaluating the capacity of a non linear continuum damage model (Faria et al. in Int J Solids Struct 35(14):1533–1558, 1998), originally developed for concrete structures, to simulate the behaviour of stone masonry structures. In particular, the seismic response of an old stone masonry construction, the Gondar church, is analysed considering different levels of geometrical and material complexity. The verification and calibration procedures use the experimental results from tests performed on stone masonry walls at the Laboratory for Earthquake and Structural Engineering of the Faculty of Engineering of Porto University and from other tests found in the bibliography (Vasconcelos in Experimental investigations on the mechanics of stone masonry: Characterization of granites and behaviour of ancient masonry shear walls. PhD Thesis, Universidade do Minho, Guimar?es, Portugal, 2005). The results are compared, assessing the differences and the importance of using complex tools, such as the continuum damage model, to better simulate and understand the global behaviour of such constructions.     

Establishing the wave climate influence on the morphodynamics of a coastal lagoon inlet

The morphologic changes in estuaries and coastal lagoons are very complex and constitute a challenging task in coastal research. The bathymetric changes result from the combined action of tides, waves, rivers discharge and wind stress in the area of interest. Additionally, an accurate knowledge of the sediment transport is essential to achieve a good morphological characterization. This work establishes the influence of the wave climate on the morphodynamics of the Ria de Aveiro lagoon inlet by analysing the numerical results of the morphodynamic modelling system MORSYS2D. The numerical simulations considered a realistic coupled forcing of tidal currents and waves. The computed sediment fluxes and bathymetric changes are analysed and compared with the erosion and accretion trends obtained from the numerical simulations forced only by tidal currents, in order to establish the wave climate influence. The final bathymetry and the corresponding changes are compared with bathymetric data collected through surveys. It is concluded that: (a) the morphodynamics of the study area is dominated by the wave regime in the lagoon inlet and nearshore areas, while in the inner areas is tidally dominated; and (b) the inclusion of the wave regime forcing constitutes an improvement in order to accurately reproduce the local morphodynamics.     

Inversion of ambient seismic noise HVSR to evaluate velocity and structural models of the Lower Tagus Basin,Portugal

During its history, several significant earthquakes have shaken the Lower Tagus Valley (Portugal). These earthquakes were destructive; some strong earthquakes were produced by large ruptures in offshore structures located southwest of the Portuguese coastline, and other moderate earthquakes were produced by local faults. In recent years, several studies have successfully obtained strong-ground motion syntheses for the Lower Tagus Valley using the finite difference method. To confirm the velocity model of this sedimentary basin obtained from geophysical and geological data, we analysed the ambient seismic noise measurements by applying the horizontal to vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) method. This study reveals the dependence of the frequency and amplitude of the low-frequency (HVSR) peaks (0.2–2 Hz) on the sediment thickness. We have obtained the depth of the Cenozoic basement along a profile transversal to the basin by the inversion of these ratios, imposing constraints from seismic reflection, boreholes, seismic sounding and gravimetric and magnetic potentials. This technique enables us to improve the existing three-dimensional model of the Lower Tagus Valley structure. The improved model will be decisive for the improvement of strong motion predictions in the earthquake hazard analysis of this highly populated basin. The methodology discussed can be applied to any other sedimentary basin.     

On some aspects of peaks-over-threshold modeling of floods under nonstationarity using climate covariates

This paper discusses some aspects of flood frequency analysis using the peaks-over-threshold model with Poisson arrivals and generalized Pareto (GP) distributed peak magnitudes under nonstationarity, using climate covariates. The discussion topics were motivated by a case study on the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the flood regime in the Itajaí river basin, in Southern Brazil. The Niño3.4 (DJF) index is used as a covariate in nonstationary estimates of the Poisson and GP distributions scale parameters. Prior to the positing of parametric dependence functions, a preliminary data-driven analysis was carried out using nonparametric regression models to estimate the dependence of the parameters on the covariate. Model fits were evaluated using asymptotic likelihood ratio tests, AIC, and Q–Q plots. Results show statistically significant and complex dependence relationships with the covariate on both nonstationary parameters. The nonstationary flood hazard measure design life level (DLL) was used to compare the relative performances of stationary and nonstationary models in quantifying flood hazard over the period of records. Uncertainty analyses were carried out in every step of the application using the delta method.     

Evaluation of surface sediment contamination by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the "Saco do Laranjal" - (Patos Lagoon, Brazil)

This paper evaluates the concentration of Polyaromatic hydrocarbons - PAHs in the Estuarine area of the Patos Lagoon, more precisely in a local named "Saco do Laranjal" in Pelotas City (southern Brazil). The samples were collected in May 2008. The concentrations of 16 US-EPA priority polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined by gas chromatography with a mass spectrometry detector (GC/MS). The sum of PAHs concentration ranged from 7.3 to 92.8μgkg(-1) in dry weight. The positive correlation (Pearson test) between the total organic material (TOM) and the total PAH concentration (0.98) suggests that TOM plays an important role in controlling the PAHs levels in the sediments. According to the observed ratios of individual PAHs, the contamination in the studied area is originated, predominantly pyrolytic sources. The values found are considered under normal levels and indicates a not impacted area.     

Solar-Terrestrial Signal Record in Tree Ring Width Time Series from Brazil

This work investigates the behavior of the sunspot number and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) signal recorded in the tree ring time series for three different locations in Brazil: Humaitá in Amaz?nia State, Porto Ferreira in S?o Paulo State, and Passo Fundo in Rio Grande do Sul State, using wavelet and cross-wavelet analysis techniques. The wavelet spectra of tree ring time series showed signs of 11 and 22?years, possibly related to the solar activity, and periods of 2–8?years, possibly related to El Ni?o events. The cross-wavelet spectra for all tree ring time series from Brazil present a significant response to the 11-year solar cycle in the time interval between 1921 to after 1981. These tree ring time series still have a response to the second harmonic of the solar cycle (5.5?years), but in different time intervals. The cross-wavelet maps also showed that the relationship between the SOI x tree ring time series is more intense, for oscillation in the range of 4–8?years.     

Chemical Reduction of Hexavalent Chromium Present in Contaminated Soil using a Packed-bed Column Reactor

Soil samples extracted from a contaminated landfill with hexavalent chromium, Cr(VI), were treated in a packed-bed column reactor applying different reductant solutions under controlled flow conditions. In all cases, the kinetic study concerning removal of Cr(VI) from packed soil revealed the overall process (leaching and redox reaction) is described by pseudo-first order kinetics. The complexity of the process taking place in non-isotropic medium (packed soil) was evidenced by dependence of the overall pseudo-first order kinetic rate constant, k*, on treatment time, volumetric flow rate, and composition and concentration of the reductant solution. A phenomenological equation was proposed in order to represent k* in non-ideal conditions. The comparative study concerning the use of different reductants revealed application of ferrous sulphate, Fe(II), under flow conditions furnished the best results, since in this case the redox process reached a considerable extent and the reduced chromium, Cr(III), was immobilized in packed soil as an insoluble mixed compound.