Impacts of future climatic and land cover changes on the hydrological regime of the Madeira River basin

Brazilian strategic interest in the Madeira River basin, one of the most important of the southern Amazon tributaries, includes the development of hydropower to satisfy the country’s growing energy needs and new waterways to boost regional trade and economic development. Because of evidences that climate change impacts the hydrological regime of rivers, the aim of this study was to assess how global climate change and regional land cover change caused by deforestation could affect the river’s hydrological regime. To achieve this goal, we calibrated a large-scale hydrological model for the period from 1970–1990 and analyzed the ability of the model to simulate the present hydrological regime when climate model simulations were used as input. Climate change projections produced by climate models were used in the hydrological model to generate scenarios with and without regional land-use and land-cover changes induced by forest conversion to pasture for the period from 2011–2099. Although results show variability among models, consensus scenarios indicated a decrease in the low-flow regime. When the simulations included forest conversion to pasture, climate change impacts on low flows were reduced in the upper basin, while, in the lower basin, discharges were affected along the whole year due to the more vigorous land-use conversion in the Brazilian region of the basin.     

A conceptual framework for the integral management of marine protected areas

A general conceptual framework for the management of marine protected areas (MPAs) was developed. The driver-pressure-state-impacts-response (DPSIR) framework was used to determine the elements affecting MPAs. The developed evaluation framework helped to select an appropriate suite of indicators to support an ecosystem approach, an assessment of the MPAs functioning and policy decisions. Gaps derived from the management and policy responses in the MPAs were also outlined. It was concluded that the DPSIR framework can help to simplify the complexity of MPA management. This document is a tool for policy makers, scientists and general public on the relevance of indicators to monitor changes and MPAs management.     

The biogeographical role of Pinus forest on the Northern Spanish Meseta: a new Holocene sequence

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the variation in the vegetation during the Holocene on the Northern Meseta through pollen analysis in order to determine the roles played by Pinus and Quercus in the vegetation dynamics. A new pollen sequence, Camporredondo, in the centre of the Duero River basin, Northern Meseta, Spain, is presented. It covers the period from ca 11,250 to 1630 cal yr BP. The Camporredondo sequence suggests that a forested landscape existed from the start of the Holocene with values of approximately 90% of arboreal pollen mainly derived from pine forests in the surroundings. Shortly after 8600 cal yr BP pine forests continued to dominate but the landscape became more open while stands of deciduous and evergreen Quercus developed. Around 4500 years ago, coinciding with the start of a period of less rainfall, the lacustrine areas in these territories began to silt up, favouring hydrophytic taxa such as Salix or Cyperaceae. A comparison with other Holocene pollen sequences from the central-eastern part of the Northern Meseta confirms the presence of pine forests in the whole region since the early Holocene. We discuss the variations of the general vegetation pattern in terms of the local or regional conditions at each site. Throughout the Holocene, Pinus forests dominated at least in the eastern half of the Duero River basin. The typical Holocene substitution of conifers by broadleaf species as recorded in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula and Europe, never takes place in the study area. The results of the present study suggest that the current view of the potential vegetation in the Spanish Northern Meseta should be reviewed.     

Simple and highly accurate formulas for the computation of Transverse Mercator coordinates from longitude and isometric latitude

A conformal approximation to the Transverse Mercator (TM) map projection, global in longitude λ and isometric latitude q, is constructed. New formulas for the point scale factor and grid convergence are also shown. Assuming that the true values of the TM coordinates are given by conveniently truncated Gauss–Krüger series expansions, we use the maximum norm of the absolute error to measure globally the accuracy of the approximation. For a Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) zone the accuracy equals 0.21  mm, whereas for the region of the ellipsoid bounded by the meridians  ±20° the accuracy is equal to 0.3  mm. Our approach is based on a four-term perturbation series approximation to the radius r(q) of the parallel q, with a maximum absolute deviation of 0.43  mm. The small parameter of the power series expansion is the square of the eccentricity of the ellipsoid. This closed approximation to r(q) is obtained by solving a regularly perturbed Cauchy problem with the Poincaré method of the small parameter. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Bioenergetics of parental investment in two polychaete species with contrasting reproductive strategies: The planktotrophic Boccardia chilensis and the poecilogonic Boccardia wellingtonensis (Spionidae)

The level of parental investment for larval nutrition may determine the life cycle in marine invertebrate species laying egg masses or capsules, where the food available for enclosed individuals would determine time and developmental stage of hatching. Most species show a unique type of larval development. However, few species are poecilogonous and combine more than one development type. Poecilogony, although scarcely studied, allows comparing different patterns of parental reproductive investment, without the phylogenetic effect of the species ancestral modes of development (phylogenetic inertia), to help to understand the factors determining life strategy evolution in marine invertebrates. The poecilogonous polychaete worm Boccardia wellingtonensis encapsulates and incubates its offspring, which then hatches as either planktotrophic larvae or benthic juveniles; while Boccardia chilensis shows a non-poecilogonous reproductive type, producing only planktotrophic larvae. In this work, we estimated the bioenergetic and biochemical composition of brooding and non-brooding females of B. wellingtonensis and B. chilensis to compare the costs of reproduction in these two species. Results showed that glucose, protein, lipid, and energy content were significantly higher in non-brooding than in brooding females of B. wellingtonensis; but also contained significantly more glucose, protein, and lipid than females of B. chilensis (in absolute and relative dry weight values). The poecilogonous species showed higher energy content previous to laying offspring. Our results support the idea that the evolution of a certain reproductive and life history traits in marine invertebrates is related to adaptations in the female's reproductive investment.     

Soil erosion processes in subtropical plantations (Diospyros kaki) managed under flood irrigation in Eastern Spain

Persimmons (Diospyros kaki) are trees cultivated under subtropical environmental conditions but are also found in other regions such as the Mediterranean. However, no research has been conducted to investigate soil erosion processes under Mediterranean soil management systems characterized by flood irrigation and/or tillage. The Improved Stock Unearthing Method (ISUM) for assessing long-term soil mobilization was applied to two fields, one under tillage and the other under no-till with herbicide within a 25-year old Mediterranean persimmon plantation. Replicating methods used in vineyard studies, graft unións on persimmon plants were used as passive bio-indicators of soil surface changes in this study. The tilled field showed a total soil mobilization volume of 48.4 m³ on a 408.5 m² plot, representing a total soil loss of 52.6 Mg ha^-1 yr^-1. For the plot (468 m²) managed with no-till and herbicide, the results indicated total soil mobilization of 33.6 m³ which translates to 31.9 Mg ha^-1 yr^-1. It is concluded that flood irrigation is able to modify the runoff pathways and landforms in Mediterranean persimmon plantations, and the flood impact is more extensive when combined with tillage. For the first time, ISUM has been successfully applied to estimate soil erosion in a plantation under flood irrigation.     

The theory of asynchronous relative motion II: universal and regular solutions

Two fully regular and universal solutions to the problem of spacecraft relative motion are derived from the Sperling–Burdet (SB) and the Kustaanheimo–Stiefel (KS) regularizations. There are no singularities in the resulting solutions, and their form is not affected by the type of reference orbit (circular, elliptic, parabolic, or hyperbolic). In addition, the solutions to the problem are given in compact tensorial expressions and directly referred to the initial state vector of the leader spacecraft. The SB and KS formulations introduce a fictitious time by means of the Sundman transformation. Because of using an alternative independent variable, the solutions are built based on the theory of asynchronous relative motion. This technique simplifies the required derivations. Closed-form expressions of the partial derivatives of orbital motion with respect to the initial state are provided explicitly. Numerical experiments show that the performance of a given representation of the dynamics depends strongly on the time transformation, whereas it is virtually independent from the choice of variables to parameterize orbital motion. In the circular and elliptic cases, the linear solutions coincide exactly with the results obtained with the Clohessy–Wiltshire and Yamanaka–Ankersen state-transition matrices. Examples of relative orbits about parabolic and hyperbolic reference orbits are also presented. Finally, the theory of asynchronous relative motion provides a simple mechanism to introduce nonlinearities in the solution, improving its accuracy.     

Uniform fragility spectra for the performance‐based seismic design of structures considering variabilities in structural properties

This paper presents a new methodology based on structural performance to determine uniform fragility design spectra, i.e., spectra with the same probability of exceedance of a performance level for a given seismic intensity. The design spectra calculated with this methodology provide directly the lateral strength, in terms of yield‐ pseudo‐accelerations, associated with the rate of exceedance of a specific ductility characterizing the performance level for which the structures will be designed. This procedure involves the assessment of the seismic hazard using a large enough number of seismic records of several magnitudes; these records are simulated with an improved empirical Green function method. The statistics of the performance of a single degree of freedom system are obtained using Monte Carlo simulation considering the seismic demand, the fundamental period, and the strength of the structure as uncertain variables. With these results, the conditional probability that a structure exceeds a specific performance level is obtained. The authors consider that the proposed procedure is a significant improvement to others considered in the literature and a useful research tool for the further development of uniform fragility spectra that can be used for the performance‐based seismic design and retrofit of structures.