Assessing conditional extremal risk of flooding in Puerto Rico

We model multivariate hydrological risks in the case that at least one of the variables is extreme. Recently, Heffernan JE, Tawn JA (2004) A conditional approach for multivariate extremes. J R Stat Soc B 66(3):497–546 (thereafter called HT04) proposed a conditional multivariate extreme value model which applies to regions where not all variables are extreme and simultaneously identifies the type of extremal dependence, including negative dependence. In this paper we apply this modeling strategy and provide an application to multivariate observations of five rivers in two clearly distinct regions of Puerto Rico Island and for two different seasons each. This effective dimensionality of ten-dimensions cannot be handled by the traditional models of multivariate extremes. The resulting fitted model, following HT04 model and strategies of estimation, is able to make long term estimation of extremes, conditional than other rivers are extreme or not. The model shows considerable flexibility to address the natural questions that arise in multivariate extreme value assessments. In the Puerto Rico 5 rivers application, the model clearly puts together two regions one of two rivers and another of three rivers, which show strong relationships in the rainy season. This corresponds with the geographical distribution of the rivers.

Quiet-time periods observed by EPHIN/SOHO during the minimum of the 22nd solar cycle

An analysis of the hydrogen and helium isotopic composition from EPHIN data, during the quiet-time period from January 1 to June 1, 1996, is presented. An isotopic discrimination and background rejection have been applied and relationships between the abundances of ²H/¹H, ³He/⁴He, and ⁴He/¹H have been calculated. The energy spectra in the 4–50 MeV nucl^–1 range have been obtained and the contribution of the different spectral components have been analysed in this energy range. We conclude that the main contribution to the ⁴He spectrum is of anomalous origin, while the proton and ³He spectra have contributions mainly from particles of solar origin at low energies and from the galactic cosmic radiation modulated by the heliosphere at high energies. The deuterium spectrum is mainly of galactic origin.     

Tectonics of an extinct ridge-transform intersection,Drake Passage (Antarctica)

New swath bathymetric, multichannel seismic and magnetic data reveal the complexity of the intersection between the extinct West Scotia Ridge (WSR) and the Shackleton Fracture Zone (SFZ), a first-order NW-SE trending high-relief ridge cutting across the Drake Passage. The SFZ is composed of shallow, ridge segments and depressions, largely parallel to the fracture zone with an `en echelon' pattern in plan view. These features are bounded by tectonic lineaments, interpreted as faults. The axial valley of the spreading center intersects the fracture zone in a complex area of deformation, where N120° E lineaments and E–W faults anastomose on both sides of the intersection. The fracture zone developed within an extensional regime, which facilitated the formation of oceanic transverse ridges parallel to the fracture zone and depressions attributed to pull-apart basins, bounded by normal and strike-slip faults.On the multichannel seismic (MCS) profiles, the igneous crust is well stratified, with numerous discontinuous high-amplitude reflectors and many irregular diffractions at the top, and a thicker layer below. The latter has sparse and weak reflectors, although it locally contains strong, dipping reflections. A bright, slightly undulating reflector observed below the spreading center axial valley at about 0.75 s (twt) depth in the igneous crust is interpreted as an indication of the relict axial magma chamber. Deep, high-amplitude subhorizontal and slightly dipping reflections are observed between 1.8 and 3.2 s (twt) below sea floor, but are preferentially located at about 2.8–3.0 s (twt) depth. Where these reflections are more continuous they may represent the Mohorovicic seismic discontinuity. More locally, short (2–3 km long), very high-amplitude reflections observed at 3.6 and 4.3 s (twt) depth below sea floor are attributed to an interlayered upper mantle transition zone. The MCS profiles also show a pattern of regularly spaced, steep-inclined reflectors, which cut across layers 2 and 3 of the oceanic crust. These reflectors are attributed to deformation under a transpressional regime that developed along the SFZ, shortly after spreading ceased at the WSR. Magnetic anomalies 5 to 5 E may be confidently identified on the flanks of the WSR. Our spreading model assumes slow rates (ca. 10–20 mm/yr), with slight asymmetries favoring the southeastern flank between 5C and 5, and the northwestern flank between 5 and extinction. The spreading rate asymmetry means that accretion was slower during formation of the steeper, shallower, southeastern flank than of the northwestern flank.     

Evaluation of methods of spatial interpolation for monthly rainfall data over the state of Rio de Janeiro,Brazil

Five deterministic methods of spatial interpolation of monthly rainfall were compared over the state of Rio de Janeiro, southeast Brazil. The methods were the inverse distance weight (IDW), nearest neighbor (NRN), triangulation with linear interpolation (TLI), natural neighbor (NN), and spline tension (SPT). A set of 110 weather stations was used to test the methods. The selection of stations had two criteria: time series longer than 20 years and period of data from 1960 to 2009. The methods were evaluated using cross-validation, linear regression between values observed and interpolated, root mean square error (RMSE), coefficient of determination (r ²), coefficient of variation (CV, %), and the Willmott index of agreement (d). The results from different methods are influenced by the meteorological systems and their seasonality, as well as by the interaction with the topography. The methods presented higher precision (r ²) and accuracy (d, RMSE) during the summer and transition to autumn, in comparison with the winter or spring months. The SPT had the highest precision and accuracy in relation to other methods, in addition to having a good representation of the spatial patterns expected for rainfall over the complex terrain of the state and its high spatial variability.     

Top-down and bottom-up modelling to support low-carbon scenarios: climate policy implications

Bottom-up and top-down models are used to support climate policies, to identify the options required to meet GHG abatement targets and to evaluate their economic impact. Some studies have shown that the GHG mitigation options provided by economic top-down and technological bottom-up models tend to vary. One reason for this is that these models tend to use different baseline scenarios. The bottom-up TIMES_PT and the top-down computable general equilibrium GEM-E3_PT models are examined using a common baseline scenario to calibrate them, and the extend of their different mitigation options and its relevant to domestic policy making are assessed. Three low-carbon scenarios for Portugal until 2050 are generated, each with different GHG reduction targets. Both models suggest close mitigation options and locate the largest mitigation potential to energy supply. However, the models suggest different mitigation options for the end-use sectors: GEM-E3_PT focuses more on energy efficiency, while TIMES_PT relies on decrease carbon intensity due to a shift to electricity. Although a common baseline scenario cannot be ignored, the models’ inherent characteristics are the main factor for the different outcomes, thereby highlighting different mitigation options.

Policy relevance

The relevance of modelling tools used to support the design of domestic climate policies is assessed by evaluating the mitigation options suggested by a bottom-up and a top-down model. The different outcomes of each model are significant for climate policy design since each suggest different mitigation options like end-use energy efficiency and the promotion of low-carbon technologies. Policy makers should carefully select the modelling tool used to support their policies. The specific modelling structures of each model make them more appropriate to address certain policy questions than others. Using both modelling approaches for policy support can therefore bring added value and result in more robust climate policy design. Although the results are specific for Portugal, the insights provided by the analysis of both models can be extended to, and used in the climate policy decisions of, other countries.     

Exact Bianchi type-II cosmological vacuum solutions in Jordan Brans-Dicke theory

Exact solutions for Bianchi type-II cosmological model in the Jordan Brans-Dicke scalar-tensor theory of gravilation are obtained. We discuss the behaviour of these solutions and compare them with others recently published.Supported in part by DGICSA SEP grant C90-03-0347.     

Combined study of the solar neighbourhood kinematics: Spherical harmonics and Taylor expansions

In this paper we relate two methods of analyzing the kinematic parameters of the local macroscopic motions of the Galaxy:

1. The Ogorodnikov-Milne model (OM) that consists in the three-dimensional Taylor expansion of the mean velocity field.
2. The two-dimensional spherical harmonic development of the velocity components (SH). We present the theoretical relations between the SH coefficients and the second-order OM ones for the radial velocityv _r and the galactic heliocentric components of the velocityU, V, W. Only the hypothesis of separability of the stellar density function of the sample into angular and radial parts is needed. Also, we apply them to 4732 A-M stars included in the Figueras (1986) sample.

     

Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico

Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E?+?S???AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application.     

Biogeographical drivers of ragweed pollen concentrations in Europe

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The drivers of spatial variation in ragweed pollen concentrations, contributing to severe allergic rhinitis and asthma, are poorly quantified. We analysed the...     

A formal framework for the representation of stack-based terrains

This paper presents a formal framework for the representation of three-dimensional geospatial data and the definition of common geographic information system (GIS) spatial operations. We use the compact stack-based representation of terrains (SBRT) in order to model geological volumetric data, both at the surface and subsurface levels, thus preventing the large storage requirements of regular voxel models. The main contribution of this paper is fitting the SBRT into the geo-atom theory in a seamless way, providing it with a sound formal geographic foundation. In addition we have defined a set of common spatial operations on this representation using the tools provided by map algebra. More complex geoprocessing operations or geophysical simulations using the SBRT as representation can be implemented as a composition of these fundamental operations. Finally a data model and an implementation extending the coverage concept provided by the Geography Markup Language standard are suggested. Geoscientists and GIS professionals can take advantage of this model to exchange and reuse geoinformation within a well-specified framework.