From desert to Mediterranean rangelands: will increasing drought and inter-annual rainfall variability affect herbaceous annual primary productivity?

Climate change is predicted to alter the rainfall regime in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin: total annual rainfall will decrease, while seasonal and inter-annual variation in rainfall will increase. Such changes in the rainfall regime could potentially lead to large-scale changes in aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) in the region. We conducted a data-driven evaluation of herbaceous ANPP along an entire regional rainfall gradient, from desert (90 mm MAR [Mean Annual Rainfall]) to Mesic-Mediterranean (780 mm MAR) ecosystems, using the largest database ever collated for herbaceous ANPP in Israel, with the aim of predicting consequences of climate change for rangeland productivity. This research revealed that herbaceous ANPP increases with increasing rainfall along the gradient, but strong dependence on rainfall was only apparent within dry sites. Rain Use Efficiency peaks at mid-gradient in Mediterranean sites without woody vegetation (560 and 610 mm MAR). Inter-annual coefficients of variation in rainfall and herbaceous ANPP decrease along the rainfall gradient up to ca. 500 mm MAR. Climate change is more likely to affect herbaceous ANPP of rangelands in the arid end of the rainfall gradient, requiring adaptation of rangeland management, while ANPP of rangelands in more mesic ecosystems is less responsive to variation in rainfall. We conclude that herbaceous ANPP in most Mediterranean rangelands is less vulnerable to climate change than generally predicted.     

On three-dimensionality of shelterbelt structure and its influences on shelter effects

Natural shelterbelts, unlike planar barriers, have a certain width, within which interactions among wind speed, drag force and pressure perturbations create a net sheltering effect. The variations of flow, drag force, permeability, and pressure perturbation for shelterbelts of different widths and different horizontal structures are numerically studied, and their influences on shelter efficiency are discussed. Comparisons are made of fourteen medium-dense shelterbelts, with the same overall leaf-area, that differ only in width or horizontal distribution of leaf-area density. The simulated results are consistent with both field observations and wind-tunnel measurements.The simulations demonstrate that the total drag force of the entire shelterbelt varies little with changes in width and structure. The results also show that shelter distance and the overall average wind speed reduction decrease only by 15–18% as width increases by a factor of 100, and changes even less for different internal structure. However, width greatly affects the location of minimum wind speed, pressure perturbation, and the permeability of shelterbelts. Horizontal changes of wind speed inside the uniform shelterbelts have four different patterns, which depend on shelterbelt width and height. The absolute pressure perturbation significantly decreases with increasing width. A possible cause of the insensitivity of shelter efficiency to width and internal inhomogeneous structure is the compensation between the effects of permeability and pressure perturbation on shelter efficiency.     

Intraseasonal and interannual climate variability

Major advances in our understanding of intraseasonal-interannual climate variability during the past three decades are reviewed. Prospects for prediction on these time-scales are briefly discussed.Paper based on talk presented at the session honoring J. Murray Mitchell at the December 1986 AGU meeting in San Francisco, CA.     

Ecosystem history of Mississippi River-influenced continental shelf revealed through preserved phytoplankton pigments

Pigments determined by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) provide useful information concerning water column and epibenthic plant and microbial communities in both extant communities and accumulated sediments in lakes, estuaries and the ocean. Chlorophyll and its degradation products provide an estimate of overall biomass, and carotenoid pigments provide taxonomic biomarkers of phytoplankton. We examined the pigments preserved in sediment cores from the Louisiana continental shelf adjacent to the outflow of the Mississippi River system to document changes in phytoplankton community composition, phytoplankton abundance, and conditions of hypoxia over time. Carbon accumulated in sediments from water depths of 20-60 m is primarily derived from marine phytoplankton and represents the history of phytoplankton communities in the overlying water. There is a general increase in chlorophyll a, pheopigments, zeaxanthin, fucoxanthin and most carotenoids over time, with the change gradual from 1955 to 1970, followed by a fairly steady increase to 1997. The highest chloropigment concentrations are in cores from areas more likely to be exposed to seasonal hypoxia. These indicate an increase in eutrophication in the form of greater diatom and cyanobacterial production, or a worsening of hypoxia, or both. This trend expanded westward along the Louisiana shelf in the 1990s.     

Geologic and hydrologic settings for development of freshwater lenses in arid lands

Satellite observations were used to test the validity of previously identified favourable conditions for the formation of freshwater lenses, identify additional potential occurrences, and model modern potential recharge in the Raudhatain Watershed (3696) in northern Kuwait. Favourable conditions include infrequent yet intensive precipitation events, drainage depressions to collect the limited runoff, and presence of conditions (e.g. high infiltration capacity) that promote groundwater recharge and preservation (e.g. underlying saline aquifer) of infiltrating groundwater as freshwater lenses floating over saline aquifer water due to differences in density. Specifically, the following field and satellite‐based observations were noted for the Raudhatain Watershed: (1) Over ~30 precipitation events were identified from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission precipitation data (1998–2009); (2) slope is gentle (2 m/km), and the surface is largely (80%) covered by alluvial deposits with high infiltration capacities (up to 9 m/day); (3) no flows and long‐term ponding were reported at the watershed outlet or detected from Landsat thematic mapper images; (4) infiltration is high based on increases in soil moisture content (from an advanced microwave scanning radiometer) and vegetation index following large precipitation events; and (5) freshwater lenses that overlie highly saline [total dissolved solids (TDS): >35 000] unconfined aquifers underlying the watershed are absent in the southern regions, where infiltrating fresh water mixes with the less saline groundwater (TDS: <10 000). Twenty potential locations (size: 1 to 75 km²) for freshwater lens development were identified in northern Kuwait, and continuous rainfall–runoff models (Soil Water and Assessment Tool) were applied to provide a first‐order estimation of the average annual recharge in the watershed (127 × 10⁶ m³) and freshwater lenses (8.17 × 10⁶ m³). Results demonstrate the settings for enhanced opportunities for groundwater recharge, outline the amounts of and preservation conditions for the groundwater feeding the freshwater lenses, and highlight potential applications and locations of freshwater lenses in similar settings elsewhere in the Arabian Peninsula and beyond. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

New snow metrics for a warming world

Snow is Earth's most climatically sensitive land cover type. Traditional snow metrics may not be able to adequately capture the changing nature of snow cover. For example, April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE) has been an effective index for streamflow forecasting, but it cannot express the effects of midwinter melt events, now expected in warming snow climates, nor can we assume that station-based measurements will be representative of snow conditions in future decades. Remote sensing and climate model data provide capacity for a suite of multi-use snow metrics from local to global scales. Such indicators need to be simple enough to “tell the story” of snowpack changes over space and time, but not overly simplistic or overly complicated in their interpretation. We describe a suite of spatially explicit, multi-temporal snow metrics based on global satellite data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and downscaled climate model output for the U.S. We describe and provide examples for Snow Cover Frequency (SCF), Snow Disappearance Date (SDD), At-Risk Snow (ARS), and Frequency of a Warm Winter (FWW). Using these retrospective and prospective snow metrics, we assess the current and future snow-related conditions in three hydroclimatically different U.S. watersheds: the Truckee, Colorado Headwaters, and Upper Connecticut. In the two western U.S. watersheds, SCF and SDD show greater sensitivity to annual differences in snow cover compared with data from the ground-based Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) network. The eastern U.S. watershed does not have a ground-based network of data, so these MODIS-derived metrics provide uniquely valuable snow information. The ARS and FWW metrics show that the Truckee Watershed is highly vulnerable to conversion from snowfall to rainfall (ARS) and midwinter melt events (FWW) throughout the seasonal snow zone. In comparison, the Colorado Headwaters and Upper Connecticut Watersheds are colder and much less vulnerable through mid- and late-century.     

Dust in the Wind: Long Range Transport of Dust in the Atmosphere and Its Implications for Global Public and Ecosystem Health

Movement of soil particles in atmospheres is a normal planetary process. Images of Martian dust devils (wind-spouts) and dust storms captured by NASA's Pathfinder have demonstrated the significant role that storm activity plays in creating the red atmospheric haze of Mars. On Earth, desert soils moving in the atmosphere are responsible for the orange hues in brilliant sunrises and sunsets. In severe dust storm events, millions of tons of soil may be moved across great expanses of land and ocean. An emerging scientific interest in the process of soil transport in the Earth's atmosphere is in the field of public and ecosystem health. This article will address the benefits and the potential hazards associated with exposure to particle fallout as clouds of desert dust traverse the globe. This revised version was published online in September 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Monitored Natural Attenuation of Manufactured Gas Plant Tar Mono- and Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons in Ground Water: A 14-Year Field Study

Site 24 was the subject of a 14-year (5110-day) study of a ground water plume created by the disposal of manufactured gas plant (MGP) tar into a shallow sandy aquifer approximately 25 years prior to the study. The ground water plume in 1988 extended from a well-defined source area to a distance of approximately 400 m down gradient. A system of monitoring wells was installed along six transects that ran perpendicular to the longitudinal axis of the plume centerline. The MGP tar source was removed from the site in 1991 and a 14-year ground water monitored natural attenuation (MNA) study commenced. The program measured the dissolved mono- and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (MAHs and PAHs) periodically over time, which decreased significantly over the 14-year period. Naphthalene decreased to less than 99% of the original dissolved mass, with mass degradation rates of 0.30 per year (half-life 2.3 years). Bulk attenuation rate constants for plume centerline concentrations over time ranged from 0.33 ± 0.09 per year (half-life 2.3 ± 0.8 years) for toluene and 0.45 ± 0.06 per year (half-life 1.6 ± 0.2 years) for naphthalene. The hydrogeologic setting at Site 24, having a sandy aquifer, shallow water table, clay confining layer, and aerobic conditions, was ideal for demonstrating MNA. However, these results demonstrate that MNA is a viable remedial strategy for ground water at sites impacted by MAHs and PAHs after the original source is removed, stabilized, or contained.     

Seasonal distribution of rainfall in Australia analysed by Fourier methods

Summary A harmonic or Fourier analysis of mean monthly rainfall data is found useful in objectively describing and mapping the seasonality of rainfall within Australia. Over large areas the seasonal component is well described by the first and second harmonic terms, leaving as a residual variance only a small proportion of the observed total variance. Care must be taken in the interpretation of second harmonic contributions within those areas of tropical Australia under strong monsoonal influences. This is because pecularities in the form of the annual rainfall regime make the first harmonic term inadequate in itself to fully describe the annual trend. The technique is found particularly useful in defining the boundaries of areas of similar seasonality, and maps based upon the first and second harmonic amplitudes are shown to bear a close relationship with known physical controls.

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Zusammenfassung Zur objektiven Beschreibung der jahreszeitlichen Schwankung der Regenfälle in Australien und ihrer kartenmäßigen Darstellung wird mit Erfolg die harmonische Analyse der mittleren Monatsmengen des Niederschlags angewendet. Über weiten Gebieten wird die jahreszeitliche Schwankung durch die ersten beiden harmonischen Schwingungen gut dargestellt; die Reststreuung macht nur einen kleinen Bruchteil der beobachteten Gesamtstreuung aus. Vorsicht erscheint jedoch geboten bei der Interpretation des Anteils der zweiten Harmonischen in den Gebieten des tropischen Australien, die unter starkem Monsuneinfluß stehen. Hier machen Besonderheiten im Niederschlagsregime selbst die erste Harmonische ungenügend zur Beschreibung des Jahresganges. Die angewandte Methode ist besonders geeignet, die Grenzen zwischen Gebieten mit gleichartigem Jahreszeiteneinfluß festzulegen. Karten, die auf der ersten und zweiten harmonischen Schwingung beruhen, zeigen einen engen Zusammenhang mit bekannten physikalischen Faktoren.

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Résumé Afin de décrire objectivement les variations saisonnières des précipitations en Australie, on se sert avantageusement de l'analyse harmonique des sommes mensuelles moyennes. Cette méthode est également utilisée pour la représentation cartographique des dites variations. Les amplitudes saisonnières sont bien rendues par les deux premières harmoniques et cela pour de grandes étendues. L'amplitude qui reste ne représente qu'une faible fraction de l'amplitude totale observée. Il faut cependant procéder avec prudence lors de l'interprétation de la part revenant à la seconde harmonique dans les contrées tropicales de l'Australie, contrées qui subissent fortement l'influence de la mousson. Dans ce cas précis, les particularités du régime des précipitations ne permettent même pas d'utiliser la première harmonique pour décrire l'évolution des pluies au cours de l'année. La méthode proposée est surtout intéressante pour délimiter les régions soumises aux mêmes régimes. Des cartes basées sur la première et la seconde harmonique montrent un rapport étroit entre les précipitations et certains facteurs physiques connus.

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With 9 Figures