A forecasting model for wave heights based on a long short-term memory neural network

To explore new operational forecasting methods of waves, a forecasting model for wave heights at three stations in the Bohai Sea has been developed. This model is based on long short-term memory(LSTM) neural network with sea surface wind and wave heights as training samples. The prediction performance of the model is evaluated,and the error analysis shows that when using the same set of numerically predicted sea surface wind as input, the prediction error produced by the proposed LSTM model at Sta. N01 is 20%, 18% and 23% lower than the conventional numerical wave models in terms of the total root mean square error(RMSE), scatter index(SI) and mean absolute error(MAE), respectively. Particularly, for significant wave height in the range of 3–5 m, the prediction accuracy of the LSTM model is improved the most remarkably, with RMSE, SI and MAE all decreasing by 24%. It is also evident that the numbers of hidden neurons, the numbers of buoys used and the time length of training samples all have impact on the prediction accuracy. However, the prediction does not necessary improve with the increase of number of hidden neurons or number of buoys used. The experiment trained by data with the longest time length is found to perform the best overall compared to other experiments with a shorter time length for training. Overall, long short-term memory neural network was proved to be a very promising method for future development and applications in wave forecasting.     

新能源发电对电磁观测环境的影响特征—以天津徐庄子台的电磁观测为例

利用天津市徐庄子地震台的电磁观测数据,针对台站周边观测区域内近年来出现的风电和光伏发电设施,通过野外试验测量,从多个角度深入剖析了不同观测环境中电磁观测数据在时间和空间上的变化形态,分别总结了风力发电、光伏发电的建设和运行状态对电磁观测环境干扰的影响特征.结果显示:风力发电机组对电磁观测环境的影响明显小于光伏发电设备,...     

用常规探空资料估算Cn2和ε垂直变化初探

用南京、射阳的常规探空资料建立了估算折射率结构常数C_n²和湍能耗散率ε垂直变化理论模式。结果表明:用该理论模式计算的ε值与用天气脉冲多普勒雷达探测的速度谱宽σ_r²再估算得到的ε值有较好的一致性。     

仿射坐标系下的因子分析—仿射因子分析

传统的因子分析以正交坐标系为其基础坐标系,因而存在某种固有缺陷。文中提出以仿射坐标系为因子分析的基础坐标系,并进而给出了仿射因子分析的方法。新方法不仅消除了原方法所存在的缺陷,同时还实现了样品和变量空间的统一。     

贵州省施秉大坪钾镁煌斑岩地球化学特征及源区指示

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黔西南部分地区龙潭组碎屑物组成及其物源背景研究

对黔西南、桂西北金异常的钻孔、平硐及有限的地表露头岩石样品的大量光薄片岩相矿相学研究,并进行了岩石化学、微量元素、稀土元素及W(Th)/W(U)等6个元素对的研究证实,龙潭组"大厂层"之上的主体岩性的主要物质(＞50%)为玄武质的火山碎屑物,元素对的比值证明物源采自幔源为主,微量元素对比与峨眉山玄武岩基本相同.其岩性应...