Thinking outside the polygon: a study of tornado warning perception outside of warning polygon bounds

When the National Weather Service (NWS) issues a tornado warning, the alert is rapidly and widely disseminated to individuals in the general area of the warning. Historically, the assumption has been that a false-negative warning perception (i.e., when someone located within a warning polygon does not believe they have received a tornado warning) carries a higher cost than a false-positive warning perception (i.e., when someone located outside the warning area believes they have received a warning). While many studies investigate tornado warning false alarms (i.e., when the NWS issues a tornado warning, but a tornado does not actually occur), less work focuses on studying individuals outside of the warning polygon bounds who believe they received a warning (i.e., false-positive perceptions). This work attempts to quantify the occurrence of false-positive perceptions and possible factors associated with the rate of occurrence. Following two separate storm events, Oklahomans were asked whether they perceived a tornado warning. Their geolocated responses were then compared to issued warning polygons. Individuals closer to tornado warnings or within a different type of warning (e.g., a severe thunderstorm warning) are more likely to report a false-positive perception than those farther away or outside of other hazard warnings. Further work is needed to understand the rate of false-positive perceptions across different hazards and how this may influence warning response and trust in the National Weather Service.

     

Enhanced nondestructive characterization of ordinary chondrites using complex magnetic susceptibility measurements

Ordinary chondrites have previously been nondestructively characterized using bulk magnetic susceptibility, broadly reflecting their Fe-Ni alloy content. We seek to expand the information that can be recovered from magnetic susceptibility by using the University of Toronto Electromagnetic Induction Spectrometer (UTEMIS) to measure the complex magnetic susceptibility tensor of 20 ordinary chondrites samples in addition to 16 Gao–Guenie (H5) chondrites at 35 frequencies from 90 Hz to 64 kHz, at variable low applied field strengths <10 A m⁻¹. Following removal of the field-dependent component of susceptibility, frequency dependence, in- and out-of-phase components, and bulk magnetic susceptibility were interpreted. Most meteorites showed no frequency-dependent in-phase responses, but had a frequency-dependent out-of-phase response attributed to eddy currents induced in conductive minerals. Greater in- and out-of-phase frequency dependence correlated with lower fayalite content in olivine and was, in turn, inversely proportional to Fe-Ni alloy content. The uncertainty in the UTEMIS measurements ranges from approximately 0.05% for low-frequency in-phase measurements to a maximum of 3% for low-frequency out-of-phase measurements. This uncertainty level was far lower than the intra-meteorite variability for the Gao–Guenie suite suggesting inhomogeneity at scales of approximately 10 g.     

GOCE gravitational gradients along the orbit

GOCE is ESA’s gravity field mission and the first satellite ever that measures gravitational gradients in space, that is, the second spatial derivatives of the Earth’s gravitational potential. The goal is to determine the Earth’s mean gravitational field with unprecedented accuracy at spatial resolutions down to 100 km. GOCE carries a gravity gradiometer that allows deriving the gravitational gradients with very high precision to achieve this goal. There are two types of GOCE Level 2 gravitational gradients (GGs) along the orbit: the gravitational gradients in the gradiometer reference frame (GRF) and the gravitational gradients in the local north oriented frame (LNOF) derived from the GGs in the GRF by point-wise rotation. Because the V _XX , V _YY , V _ZZ and V _XZ are much more accurate than V _XY and V _YZ , and because the error of the accurate GGs increases for low frequencies, the rotation requires that part of the measured GG signal is replaced by model signal. However, the actual quality of the gradients in GRF and LNOF needs to be assessed. We analysed the outliers in the GGs, validated the GGs in the GRF using independent gravity field information and compared their assessed error with the requirements. In addition, we compared the GGs in the LNOF with state-of-the-art global gravity field models and determined the model contribution to the rotated GGs. We found that the percentage of detected outliers is below 0.1% for all GGs, and external gravity data confirm that the GG scale factors do not differ from one down to the 10⁻³ level. Furthermore, we found that the error of V _XX and V _YY is approximately at the level of the requirement on the gravitational gradient trace, whereas the V _ZZ error is a factor of 2–3 above the requirement for higher frequencies. We show that the model contribution in the rotated GGs is 2–35% dependent on the gravitational gradient. Finally, we found that GOCE gravitational gradients and gradients derived from EIGEN-5C and EGM2008 are consistent over the oceans, but that over the continents the consistency may be less, especially in areas with poor terrestrial gravity data. All in all, our analyses show that the quality of the GOCE gravitational gradients is good and that with this type of data valuable new gravity field information is obtained.     

The ~4-ka Rungwe Pumice (South-Western Tanzania): a wind-still Plinian eruption

The ~4-ka trachytic Rungwe Pumice (RP) deposit from Rungwe Volcano in South-Western Tanzania is the first Plinian-style deposit from an African volcano to be closely documented focusing on its physical characterization. The RP is a mostly massive fall deposit with an inversely graded base. Empirical models suggest a maximum eruption column height H _T of 30.5–35 km with an associated peak mass discharge rate of 2.8–4.8 × 10⁸ kg/s. Analytical calculations result in H _T values of 33 ± 4 km (inversion of TEPHRA2 model on grain size data) corresponding to mass discharge ranging from 2.3 to 6.0 × 10⁸ kg/s. Lake-core data allow extrapolation of the deposit thinning trend far beyond onland exposures. Empirical fitting of thickness data yields volume estimates between 3.2 and 5.8 km³ (corresponding to an erupted mass of 1.1–2.0 × 10¹² kg), whereas analytical derivation yields an erupted mass of 1.1 × 10¹² kg (inversion of TEPHRA2 model). Modelling and dispersal maps are consistent with nearly no-wind conditions during the eruption. The plume corner is estimated to have been ca. 11–12 km from the vent. After an opening phase with gradually increasing intensity, a high discharge rate was maintained throughout the eruption, without fountain collapse as is evidenced by a lack of pyroclastic density current deposits.     

Origin of ~2.5 Ga potassic granite from the Nellore Schist Belt,SE India: textural,cathodoluminescence, and SHRIMP U–Pb data

In a geochemical and geochronological investigation of Archean and Proterozoic magmatism in the Nellore Schist Belt, we conducted SHRIMP U–Pb analyses of zircons from two cospatial granitic bodies at Guramkonda and Vendodu. The former is a Ba- and Sr-rich hornblende-bearing tonalite, whereas the latter is a Rb-, Zr-, Pb-, Th-, U-, and REE-rich biotite-bearing leucogranite. The Guramkonda tonalite displays a restitic texture with remnants of trapped granitic melt, whereas the Vendodu leucogranite contains residual/partially melted plagioclase grains. Both rock types contain two generations of zircon: tonalite contains a group of euhedral zoned zircons enclosed within plagioclase and a group of subhedral patchy zircons associated with trapped melt (quartz + feldspar matrix), and leucogranite also contains a group of doubly terminated euhedral zircons included within orthoclase as well as a group of zircons with visible cores mantled by later rim growth. Cathodoluminescence images also clearly document two distinctly textured varieties of zircon: the tonalite contains a population characterized by narrowly spaced uninterrupted oscillatory zoning and a second population lacking zoning but exhibiting a random distribution of dark (U-rich) and light (U-poor) regions; the leucogranite contains U-rich zoned zircons and U-poor zircon cores mantled by U-rich rims. The REE chemistry of zircon cores from the Vendodu leucogranite is very similar to the REE of zoned zircons from the Guramkonda tonalite. Zircon ages from both plutons exhibit bimodal distributions in U–Pb concordia diagrams. The tonalite defines an age of 2,521 Ma ± 5 Ma for zoned magmatic zircons and 2,485 Ma ± 5 Ma for unzoned newly precipitated zircons, whereas the leucogranite has an age of 2,518 Ma ± 5 Ma for U-poor zircon cores (relics of the tonalite pluton) and 2,483 Ma ± 3 Ma for U-rich zoned magmatic zircons. The trace element geochemistry of the ~2,520 Ma zircons is distinctly different from the ~2,485 Ma zircons, irrespective of the host rock. Our textural, CL image, and SHRIMP U–Pb analyses document the origin of the leucogranite by partial melting of the tonalite. High alkalis (Na₂O + K₂O), Rb, Nb, HREE, FeO^t/MgO and low Ca, Al, Ba, Sr, and large negative Eu anomalies characterize the leucogranite as a thermal minimum melt, whereas the very low K and Rb of the tonalite attests to its residual nature. We suggest that the leucogranite formed by high-T (900–950°C), moderate-pressure (<10 kbar) dehydration partial melting of the tonalite under reducing conditions. The calculated source compositions of the leucogranite melt and the tonalite residue show strong similarities to melts that are considered to have been produced in a subduction-zone environment. The leucogranite probably formed in a post-collisional realm immediately after accretion of the tonalitic crust.     

Physical constraints on impact melt properties from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera images

Impact melt flows exterior to Copernican-age craters are observed in high spatial resolution (0.5 m/pixel) images acquired by the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) Narrow Angle Camera (NAC). Impact melt is mapped in detail around 15 craters ranging in diameter from 2.4 to 32.5 km. This survey supports previous observations suggesting melt flows often occur at craters whose shape is influenced by topographic variation at the pre-impact site. Impact melt flows are observed around craters as small as 2.4 km in diameter, and preliminary estimates of melt volume suggest melt production at small craters can significantly exceed model predictions. Digital terrain models produced from targeted NAC stereo images are used to examine the three-dimensional properties of flow features and emplacement setting, enabling physical modeling of flow parameters. Qualitative and quantitative observations are consistent with low-viscosity melts heated above their liquidii (superheated) with limited amounts of entrained solids.     

Recruitment of the Crabs Eurypanopeus depressus, Rhithropanopeus harrisii, and Petrolisthes armatus to Oyster Reefs: the Influence of Freshwater Inflow

Oyster reefs provide structural habitat for resident crabs and fishes, most of which have planktonic larvae that are dependent upon transport/retention processes for successful settlement. High rates of freshwater inflow have the potential to disrupt these processes, creating spatial gaps between larval distribution and settlement habitat. To investigate whether inflow can impact subsequent recruitment to oyster reefs, densities of crab larvae and post-settlement juveniles and adults were compared in Estero Bay, Florida, over 22 months (2005–2006). Three species were selected for comparison: Petrolisthes armatus, Eurypanopeus depressus, and Rhithropanopeus harrisii. All are important members of oyster reef communities in Southwest Florida; all exhibit protracted spawning, with larvae present throughout the year; and each is distributed unevenly on reefs in different salinity regimes. Recruitment to oyster reefs was positively correlated with bay-wide larval supply at all five reefs examined. Species-specific larval connectivity to settlement sites was altered by inflow: where connectivity was enhanced by increased inflow, stock–recruitment curves were linear; where connectivity was reduced by high inflows, stock–recruitment curves were asymptotic at higher larval densities. Maximum recruit density varied by an order of magnitude among reefs. Although live oyster density was a good indicator of habitat quality in regard to crab density, it did not account for the high variability in recruit densities. Variation in recruit density at higher levels of larval supply may primarily be caused by inflow-induced variation in larval connectivity, creating an abiotic simulation of what has widely been regarded as density dependence in stock–recruitment curves.     

Modelling of fractured carbonate reservoirs: outline of a novel technique via a case study from the Molasse Basin, southern Bavaria, Germany

Fluid flow in low-permeable carbonate rocks depends on the density of fractures, their interconnectivity and on the formation of fault damage zones. The present-day stress field influences the aperture hence the transmissivity of fractures whereas paleostress fields are responsible for the formation of faults and fractures. In low-permeable reservoir rocks, fault zones belong to the major targets. Before drilling, an estimate for reservoir productivity of wells drilled into the damage zone of faults is therefore required. Due to limitations in available data, a characterization of such reservoirs usually relies on the use of numerical techniques. The requirements of these mathematical models encompass a full integration of the actual fault geometry, comprising the dimension of the fault damage zone and of the fault core, and the individual population with properties of fault zones in the hanging and foot wall and the host rock. The paper presents both the technical approach to develop such a model and the property definition of heterogeneous fault zones and host rock with respect to the current stress field. The case study describes a deep geothermal reservoir in the western central Molasse Basin in southern Bavaria, Germany. Results from numerical simulations indicate that the well productivity can be enhanced along compressional fault zones if the interconnectivity of fractures is lateral caused by crossing synthetic and antithetic fractures. The model allows a deeper understanding of production tests and reservoir properties of faulted rocks.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987112001041

Large igneous provinces (LIPs) are considered a relevant cause for mass extinctions of marine life throughout Earth’s history. Their flood basalts and associated intrusions can cause significant release of SO₄ and CO₂ and consequently, cause major environmental disruptions. Here, we reconstruct the long-term periodic pattern of LIP emplacement and its impact on ocean chemistry and biodiversity from δ³⁴S_sulfate of the last 520 Ma under particular consideration of the preservation limits of LIP records. A combination of cross-wavelet and other time-series analysis methods has been applied to quantify a potential chain of linkage between LIP emplacement periodicity, geochemical changes and the Phanerozoic marine genera record. We suggest a mantle plume cyclicity represented by LIP volumes (V) of V = ?(350–770) × 10³ km³ sin(2πt/170 Ma) + (300–650) × 10³ km³ sin(2πt/64.5 Ma + 2.3) for t = time in Ma. A shift from the 64.5 Ma to a weaker ～28–35 Ma LIP cyclicity during the Jurassic contributes together with probably independent changes in the marine sulfur cycle to less ocean anoxia, and a general stabilization of ocean chemistry and increasing marine biodiversity throughout the last ～135 Ma. The LIP cycle pattern is coherent with marine biodiversity fluctuations corresponding to a reduction of marine biodiversity of ～120 genera/Ma at ～600 × 10³ km³ LIP eruption volume. The 62–65 Ma LIP cycle pattern as well as excursion in δ³⁴S_sulfate and marine genera reduction suggest a not-yet identified found LIP event at ～440–450 Ma.