A multi-perspective examination of heat waves affecting Metro Vancouver: now into the future

Using studies of places where heat waves are common, projected changes in heat waves in Metro Vancouver are assessed from a multi-disciplinary perspective with respect to the potential impacts of the physical change on the people and infrastructure with the intention of being better prepared for future events. Trends in maximum temperature parameters for Metro Vancouver for the past 75 years are generally not statistically significant; however, projections for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 suggest that the region will experience such events more frequently in the future due to climate change. While Metro Vancouver, British Columbia (BC) generally does not typically experience heat waves it was strongly affected by a major heat event in July 2009, with temperature records being broken at Vancouver (≥31 °C) on the coast and at Abbotsford (≥36 °C) 65-km inland. A lack of sea breeze during this event meant that there was no cooling effect, and land surface temperatures over the downtown area approached 40 °C and excess deaths occurred. Many victims were either in the 65–74 age category, the vulnerable poor, or people with mental health issues. Because these events are rare, many buildings lack air-conditioning, and residents of Metro Vancouver under-anticipate their vulnerability. The costs of health-related impacts outweighed those related to higher electricity usage.     

Modeling anthropogenic boron in groundwater flow and discharge at Volusia Blue Spring (Florida,USA)

Volusia Blue Spring (VBS) is the largest spring along the St. Johns River in Florida (USA) and the spring pool is refuge for hundreds of manatees during winter months. However, the water quality of the spring flow has been degraded due to urbanization in the past few decades. A three-dimensional contaminant fate and transport model, utilizing MODFLOW-2000 and MT3DMS, was developed to simulate boron transport in the Upper Florida Aquifer, which sustains the VBS spring discharge. The VBS model relied on information and data related to natural water features, rainfall, land use, water use, treated wastewater discharge, septic tank effluent flows, and fertilizers as inputs to simulate boron transport. The model was calibrated against field-observed water levels, spring discharge, and analysis of boron in water samples. The calibrated VBS model yielded a root-mean-square-error value of 1.8 m for the head and 17.7 μg/L for boron concentrations within the springshed. Model results show that anthropogenic boron from surrounding urbanized areas contributes to the boron found at Volusia Blue Spring.     

Diphenyl ether—Another marine environmental contaminant

Residues of diphenyl ether, a compound which has been used industrially for several decades, have been found in samples of seawater, lake water and snow (all in the ng I.^?1 range) and in fat from fish, a seal and a gull (all in the μg g^?1 range) collected from various points around Nova Scotia.     

Process-based snowmelt modeling: does it require more input data than temperature-index modeling?

Modeling snow hydrology for cold regions remains a problematic aspect of many hydro-environmental models. Temperature-index methods are commonly used and are routinely justified under the auspices that process-based models require too many input data. To test this claim, we used a physical, process-based model to simulate snowmelt at four locations across the conterminous US using energy components estimated from measured daily maximum and minimum temperature, i.e. using only the same data required for temperature-index models. The results showed good agreement between observed and predicted snow water equivalents, average R²>0.9. We duplicated the simulations using a simple temperature-index model best fitted to the data and results were poorer, R²<0.8. At one site we applied the process-based model without substantial parameter estimation, and there were no significant (=0.05) differences between these results and those obtained using temperature-estimated parameters, despite relatively poorly predicted specific energy budget components (R²<0.8). These results encourage the use of mechanistic snowmelt modeling approaches in hydrological models, especially in distributed hydrological models for which landscape snow distribution may be controlled by spatially distributed components of the environmental energy budget.     

Rhizome growth dynamics of native and exotic haplotypes ofPhragmites australis (Common reed)

Phragmites australis (common reed), a clonal grass, has expanded from a minor component of the mid-Atlantic wetlands to a dominant species. It has been suggested that invasive populations ofPhragmites are an exotic haplotype responsible for the dramatic increase in the distribution of the species. We used field observations and measurements and a greenhouse assay to compare native (haplotype F) and exotic (haplotype M) populations, growing adjacent to one another in a brackish marsh near Odessa, Delaware. In the marsh, shoots of the exotic strain emerged from the rhizomes earlier than those of the native and by March there was an order of magnitude more new shoots of the exotic strain than the native. In August, the exotic strain was 30% taller than the native, had twice the leaf biomass, and twice the total biomass. Nine of ten morphological and biomass characteristics measured differed significantly between the native and exotic strains. A greenhouse assay was conducted by planting rhizomes collected in March in shallow trays and growing them for 70 d followed by shoot harvest (Harvest 1). Rhizomes were measured, replanted, and grown for 35 d after which time they were measured and shoots were harvested (Harvest 2). At Harvest 1, shoot height was approximately 80% greater in the exotic strain, shoot biomass was three times higher, aboveground to belowground biomass ratio was twice as high, and rhizome internode length was 50% greater in the exotic strain than the native. These traits, in addition to number of shoots, were also greater in the exotic strain at Harvest 2. The number of rhizome buds at Harvest 1 was three times greater in the native than in the exotic strain. The greater number of rhizome buds in the native would seem to be an advantage, but it did not result in more shoot production. Buds were maintained in an inactive state that does not allow this strain to compete well in a wetland environment inhabited by a more efficient spreader. The earlier emergence of new shoots from the rhizomes, the greater aboveground structure, the greater rhizome internode length, and the quick transition of rhizome buds to shoot or rhizome explain in part the exotic strain's advantage over the native and the mechanisms for its invasive nature.     

Sediment flux in a small gravel-bed stream: Response to channel remediation works

Abstract:  Sediment transfers in a short reach of the Kiwitea Stream, near Fielding, lower North Island, New Zealand, are assessed using morphological budgeting based on repeat digital elevation model (DEM) differencing. Field data were acquired using high-precision GPS in October 2004, May and November 2005. Two interpolation methods to construct DEMs were compared. Universal kriging and Triangulation with Linear Interpolation produced consistent results and mean errors of between 4 and 14 mm. DEM error increases where relief changes rapidly. Sediment transfers are derived only from the low-relief active channel and indicate a rapidly changing environment. Remediation works following 2004 flood impacts have reduced bank erosion. A highly mobile bed renders the channel system sensitive to small and frequent flood events.     

Aggregational behavior of the blue mussels Mytilus edulis and Mytilus trossulus: a potential pre‐zygotic reproductive isolation mechanism

The blue mussels Mytilus edulis and Mytilus trossulus occur sympatrically and are able to hybridize in populations on the eastern coast of Newfoundland, Canada, presenting an opportunity to study their aggregational behavior. Aggregation behavior may therefore provide insight into post‐settlement interactions and pre‐zygotic reproductive isolation between the species. Three treatments were designed using M. edulis and M. trossulus to investigate their intraspecific and interspecific spatial distribution patterns. With Ripley’s K‐function and Monte Carlo simulation analysis, we found that in the single‐species treatment, M. edulis aggregated significantly but not M. trossulus. Based on results of two‐way ANOVAs, both the number of aggregations and the moving distance were significantly affected by the treatments (single‐species or mixed‐species treatment) and times (24, 48, 72 and 96 h). In further pairwise comparisons using Tukey’s test, M. edulis aggregated differently with or without M. trossulus occupying the same tank, suggesting that the aggregational behavior of M. edulis could be driven by species‐specific chemical cues. The result that M. edulis aggregates intraspecifically may increase the probability of intraspecific fertilization of the spawned gametes and thus function as a pre‐zygotic reproductive isolation mechanism maintaining the blue mussel hybrid zone.     

Alternating Gaussian process modulated renewal processes for modeling threshold exceedances and durations

It is often of interest to model the incidence and duration of threshold exceedance events for an environmental variable over a set of monitoring locations. Such data arrive over continuous time and can be considered as observations of a two-state process yielding, sequentially, a length of time in the below threshold state followed by a length of time in the above threshold state, then returning to the below threshold state, etc. We have a two-state continuous time Markov process, often referred to as an alternating renewal process. The process is observed over a truncated time window and, within this window, duration in each state is modeled using a distinct cumulative intensity specification. Initially, we model each intensity over the window using a parametric regression specification. We extend the regression specification adding temporal random effects to enrich the model using a realization of a log Gaussian process over time. With only one type of renewal, this specification is referred to as a Gaussian process modulated renewal process. Here, we introduce Gaussian process modulation to the intensity for each state. Model fitting is done within a Bayesian framework. We clarify that fitting with a customary log Gaussian process specification over a lengthy time window is computationally infeasible. The nearest neighbor Gaussian process, which supplies sparse covariance structure, is adopted to enable tractable computation. We propose methods for both generating data under our models and for conducting model comparison. The model is applied to hourly ozone data for four monitoring sites at different locations across the United States for the ozone season of 2014. For each site, we obtain estimated profiles of up-crossing and down-crossing intensity functions through time. In addition, we obtain inference regarding the number of exceedances, the distribution of the duration of exceedance events, and the proportion of time in the above and below threshold state for any time interval.     

Between Environmental Change and Neoliberalism: The Effects of Oil Palm Production on Livelihood Resilience

Rural communities worldwide are increasingly confronted with the simultaneous impacts of environmental change dynamics and processes of economic restructuring that diminish traditional sources of state support while shifting investments toward large-scale intensive production models. A key question in this context is how livelihoods are affected by these interacting forces of change and whether new production models can contribute to resilience at the household and community scales. Here we examine the impacts of oil palm production on marginal rural communities in Mexico that have experienced both the economic changes associated with neoliberal policy reforms and the dynamics of environmental change. We find that oil palm production can contribute to livelihood resilience when community members participate in its management and governance and when production is associated with state support, but that the kinds of neoliberal policies promoting oil palm expansion may exacerbate existing community vulnerabilities in the face of environmental change.