Circulation statistics and climate change in Central Europe: PRUDENCE simulations and observations

PRUDENCE simulations of the climate in Central Europe are analysed with respect to mean temperature, mean precipitation and three monthly mean geostrophic circulation indices. The three global models show important circulation biases in the control climate, in particular in the strength of the west-circulations in winter and summer. The nine regional models inherit much of the circulation biases from their host model, especially in winter. In summer, the regional models show a larger spread in circulation statistics, depending on nesting procedures and other model characteristics. Simulated circulation biases appear to have a significant inluence on simulated temperature and precipitation. The PRUDENCE ensemble appears to be biased towards warmer and wetter than observed circulations in winter, and towards warmer and dryer circulations in summer. A2-scenario simulations show important circulation changes, which have a significant impact on changes in the distributions of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. It is likely that interactions between land–surface processes and atmospheric circulation play an important role in the simulated changes in the summer climate in Central Europe.     

γ-ray irradiation in the early Solar System and the conundrum of the Lu decay constant

When recent geological calibrations of the ¹⁷⁶Lu decay constant are used, the ¹⁷⁶Lu-¹⁷⁶Hf ages of chondrites are consistently 4% too old (∼4.75 Ga). Here, we suggest that this discrepancy reflects the photoexcitation of the long-lived ¹⁷⁶Lu ground state to the short-lived isomeric state (T_1/2 = 3.7 h) by γ-rays irradiating early condensates. Irradiation may have been of solar origin and taking place at the inner edge of the nebular disk. Alternatively, the source of γ-rays could have been one or more supernova(e) exploding in the vicinity of the solar nebula. Such photoexcitation has been experimentally observed, but requires γ-ray photons that have energies in excess of 838 keV. At this stage, we cannot assess whether the Hf isotope composition of the Bulk Silicate Earth differs from that of chondrites, eucrites, and the 4.56 Ga old Martian meteorite ALH84001, and therefore, whether the precursor material for these different planetary bodies received comparable fluences of γ-rays.     

Computer studies of the evolution of planetary and satellite systems I. Description of the program: Preliminary tests

In this paper we describe a CDC-Cyber 74 program for computer simulation of the evolution of a system consisting of a large number of objects in orbit around a central body or primary. Some preliminary tests done with the program will also be described.     

HABIT PLANES OF PLATELIKE SCHREIBERSITE IN HEXAHEDRITES*

We have measured the habit planes of plate rhabdites [(Fe, Ni)₃P] with respect to the parent kamacite phase (α, Fe-Ni) in eight hexahedrites. This was accomplished using x-ray diffraction plus two-surface trace analysis. Results show that plate rhabdites form on either {001} or {122} planes in the parent kamacite. The meteorite Uwet exhibits a {112} habit plane which is possibly an anomaly due to the occurrence of a large shock event during rhabdite nucleation (～ 550–650 °C).     

Rating curve uncertainty and change detection in discharge time series: case study with 44‐year historic data from the Nyangores River,Kenya

The intersection of the developing topic of rating curve and discharge series uncertainty with the topic of hydrological change detection (e.g., in response to land cover or climatic change) has not yet been well studied. The work herein explores this intersection, with consideration of a long‐term discharge response (1964–2007) for a ~650‐km² headwater basin of the Mara River in west Kenya, starting with stream rating and daily gauge height data. A rating model was calibrated using Bayesian methods to quantify uncertainty intervals in model parameters and predictions. There was an unknown balance of random and systemic error in rating data scatter (a scenario not likely unique to this basin), which led to an unknown balance of noise and information in the calibrated statistical error model. This had implications on testing for hydrological change. Overall, indications were that shifts in basin's discharge response were rather subtle over the 44‐year period. A null hypothesis for change using flow duration curves (FDCs) from four different 8‐year data intervals could be either accepted or rejected over much of the net flow domain depending on different applications of the statistical error model (each with precedence in the literature). The only unambiguous indication of change in FDC comparisons appeared to be a reduction in lowest baseflow in recent years (flows with >98% exceedance probability). We defined a subjective uncertainty interval based on an intermediate balance of random and systematic error in the rating model that suggested a possibility of more prevalent impacts. These results have relevance to management in the Mara basin and to future studies that might establish linkages to historic land use and climatic factors. The concern about uncertain uncertainty intervals (uncertainty²) extends beyond the Mara and is relevant to testing change where non‐random rating errors may be important and subtle responses are investigated. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metamorphic petrology of a high‐T/low‐P granulite terrane (Damara belt,Namibia) – Constraints from pseudosection modelling and high‐precision Lu–Hf garnet‐whole rock dating

Migmatites comprise a minor volume of the high‐grade part of the Damara orogen of Namibia that is dominated by granite complexes and intercalated metasedimentary units. Migmatites of the Southern Central Zone of the Damara orogen consist of melanosomes with garnet+cordierite+biotite+K‐feldspar, and leucosomes, which are sometimes garnet‐ and cordierite‐bearing. Field evidence, petrographic observations, and pseudosection modelling suggest that, in contrast to other areas where intrusion of granitic magmas is more important, in situ partial melting of metasedimentary units was the main migmatite generation processes. Pseudosection modelling and thermobarometric calculations consistently indicate that the peak‐metamorphic grade throughout the area is in the granulite facies (~5 kbar at ~800°C). Cordierite coronas around garnet suggest some decompression from peak‐metamorphic conditions and rare andalusite records late, near‐isobaric cooling to <650°C at low pressures of ~3 kbar. The inferred clockwise P–T path is consistent with minor crustal thickening through continent–continent collision followed by limited post‐collisional exhumation and suggests that the granulite facies terrane of the Southern Central Zone of the Damara orogen formed initially in a metamorphic field gradient of ~35–40°C/km at medium pressures. New high‐precision Lu–Hf garnet‐whole rock dates are 530 ± 13 Ma, 522.0 ± 0.8 Ma, 520.8 ± 3.6 Ma, and 500.3 ± 4.3 Ma for the migmatites that record temperatures of ~800°C. This indicates that high‐grade metamorphism lasted for c. 20–30 Ma, which is compatible with previous estimates using Sm–Nd garnet‐whole rock systematics. In previous studies on Damara orogen migmatites where both Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf chronometers have been applied, the dates (c. 520–510 Ma) agree within their small uncertainties (0.6–0.8% for Sm–Nd and 0.1–0.2% for Lu–Hf). This implies rapid cooling after high‐grade conditions and, by implication, rapid exhumation at that time. The cause of the high geothermal gradient inferred from the metamorphic conditions is unknown but likely requires some extra heat that was probably added by intrusion of magmas from the lithospheric mantle, i.e., syenites that have been recently re‐dated at c. 545 Ma. Some granites derived from the lower crust at c. 545 Ma are the outcome rather than the cause of high‐T metamorphism. In addition, high contents of heat‐producing elements K, Th, and U may have raised peak temperatures by 150–200°C at the base of the crust, resulting in the widespread melting of fertile crustal rocks. The continuous gradation from centimetre‐scale leucosomes to decametre‐scale leucogranite sheets within the high‐grade metamorphic zone suggests that leucosome lenses coalesced to form larger bodies of anatectic leucogranites, thereby documenting a link between high‐grade regional metamorphism and Pan‐African magmatism. In view of the close association of the studied high‐T migmatites with hundreds of synmetamorphic high‐T granites that invaded the terrane as metre‐ to decametre‐wide sills and dykes, we postulate that crystallization of felsic lower crustal magma is, at least partly, responsible for heat supply. Late‐stage isobaric cooling of these granites may explain the occurrence of andalusite in some samples.