Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Historical Changes in the Flood Hazard at Khartoum, Sudan: Lessons and Warnings for the Future

The 1988 floods at Khartoum were frequently described as "unprecedented". However, an examination of evidence for floods caused by the Nile and rain storms during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries leads to the conclusion that neither the Nile flood nor the rain storms nor their coincidence in one season were unprecedented and that similar situations will recur.We argue that most problems were created by complacency, lack of planning and mismanagement. We conclude with some simple suggestions for flood amelioration in the future and warn that complacency is the single most important phenomenon likely to recur to the detriment of Greater Khartoum in the future.     

Robe's restricted three-body problem revisited

Robe's restricted three-body problem is reanalyzed with a view to incorporate a new assumption, namely that the configuration of the fluid body is that described by an hydrostatic equilibrium figure (Roche's ellipsoid). In the concomitant gravitational field a full treatment of the buoyancy force is given. The pertinent equations of motion are derived, the linear stability of the equilibrium solution is studied and the connection between the effect of the buoyancy forces and a perturbation of the Coriolis force is pointed out.     

Metamorphic evolution of exhumed middle to lower crustal rocks in the Mojave Extensional Belt, southern California, USA

The Waterman Metamorphic Complex of the central Mojave Desert was exposed as a consequence of early Miocene detachment-dominated extension. However, it has evidence consistent with a more extensive geological history that involves collision of a crustal fragment(s), tectonic thickening by overthrusting and two periods of extension. The metamorphic complex contains granitoid intrusives and felsic mylonitic gneisses as well as polymetamorphic rocks that include marble, calc-silicate, quartzite. mafic granulite, pyribolite, amphibolite, migmatite and biotite schist. The latter group of rocks was affected by an initial series of high-grade metamorphic events (M1 and M2) and a localized lower grade overprint (M3). The initial metamorphism (M1) can be separated into two stages along its high-grade P–T path: M1a, a granulite facies metamorphism at 800–850° C and 7.5–9 kbar and Mlb, an upper amphibolite facies overprint at 750–800° C and 10–12 kbar. M1a developed mineral assemblages and textures consistent with granulite facies conditions at a reduced activity of H₂O and is associated with intense ductile deformation (D1) and minor local partial melting. M1b overprinted the granulite assemblages with a series of hydrous phases under conditions of increasing pressure and H₂O activity and is accompanied by little or no deformation. M2 developed at lower pressures and temperatures (650–750° C, 4.5–5.5 kbar) and is distinguished by a second local overprint of hydrous phases that reflects an input of aqueous fluids probably associated with the intrusion of a series of granitic dykes and veins. Effects of M3 are confined to the Mitchel detachment zone, an anastomosing early Miocene detachment fault, and are characterized by local ductile/brittle deformation (D2) of the pre-existing high-grade rocks and granitoid intrusives and by the production of mylonites and mylonitic gneisses under greenschist facies conditions (300–350° C, 3–5 kbar). The initial overprint (M1a) represents metamorphism, devolatilization and minor partial melting of supracrustal rocks under granulite facies conditions as a consequence of tectonic and, possibly, magmatic thickening. The increasing pressure transition of M1a to M1b reflects a period of continued compressional tectonism, thrusting and influx of H₂O, in part, locally related to crystallization of partial melts. The near isothermal decompression between M1b and M2 probably represents a pre-112-Ma extensional episode that may have been the result of a decompressional readjustment of a thickened crust. Following the initial extensional event, the metamorphic complex remained at depths of 10–17 km for at least 90 Ma until it was uplifted following Miocene extension. M3 develops locally in response to this second extensional period resulting from the early Miocene detachment faulting.     

Interactions and the Evolution of Cluster Galaxies

We have developed model predictions for the morphological distribution of cluster galaxies as a function of the cluster-centric distance and the local galaxy density, using a semi-analytical code. This code allows us to obtain magnitudes and colours for cluster galaxies at different redshifts, and thus to study in detail the evolution of the colour–magnitude relation of specific distant clusters. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Multiple-source localization using GPS technology and receivedarrival time structure analysis in an air-deployed system

An efficient and robust method has been developed to locate multiple impulsive sources in an ocean environment. Global position system (GPS) receivers were installed on sonobuoys to obtain their locations within a few meters of accuracy. A sonobuoy field was deployed in a ring-type pattern. Charges were then set off at arbitrary locations within the ring, High-resolution plots were used to obtain direct path and/or first bottom bounce arrivals on each buoy. A model grid of arrival times was constructed, corresponding to the dimensions of the buoy field. A ray model previously developed here at the Applied Research Laboratories at the University of Texas at Austin (ARL:UT) was used to obtain model travel times. The minimum value of the least-square-type error between the real arrival times and the modeled travel times resulted in an unambiguous location of the source, within the limits of the grid spacing chosen. This value was calculated by picking one receiver as the reference and then summing the timing errors of the remaining receivers relative to the reference. Successive iterations with finer grid spacings result in source localization within the accuracy of the buoy locations. The localization routine was extended by allowing permutations of the pulse arrivals on each buoy to account for multiple sources closely separated in time and/or space. An automated correlation technique is presented as an alternative to the leading edge-detection method used here for obtaining relative arrival times. Two proof-of-concept experiments were performed and some results of data obtained at Lake Travis and the Gulf of Mexico are presented     

A comparison of theoreticalCIV emission line strengths with active region observations obtained with the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS)

Theoretical line ratios involving 2s ² S - 3p ² P, 2p ² P - 3s ² S, and 2p ² S - 3d ² D transitions inCiv between 312 and 420 Å are presented. A comparison of these with solar active region observational data obtained during a rocket flight by the Solar EUV Rocket Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS) reveals good agreement between theory and experiment, with discrepancies that average only 22%. This provides experimental support for the accuracy of the atomic data adopted in the line ratio calculations, and also resolves discrepancies found previously when the theoretical results were compared with solar data from the S082A instrument on boardSkylab. The potential usefulness of theCIV line ratios as electron temperature diagnostics for the solar transition region is briefly discussed.     

NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC POLAR LOWS——A COMPARATIVE STUDY

Northern Hemispheric“polar lows”,i.e.maritime,small,but fairly intense cyclonic systems have been studied formore than two decades.Recently researchers have turned their attention towards the occurrence of polar lows and othersmall-scale cyclonic disturbances on the Southern Hemisphere.In this paper a short account of our present knowledgeof Northern Hemispheric polar lows will be given,followed by some preliminary results of an investigation of the natureand occurrence of polar lows on the Southern Hemisphere.