Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate. 相似文献
We have measured the concentration of in situ produced cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al from bare bedrock surfaces on summit flats in four western U.S. mountain ranges. The maximum mean bare-bedrock erosion rate from these alpine environments is 7.6 ± 3.9 m My−1. Individual measurements vary between 2 and 19 m My−1. These erosion rates are similar to previous cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) erosion rates measured in other environments, except for those from extremely arid regions. This indicates that bare bedrock is not weathered into transportable material more rapidly in alpine environments than in other environments, even though frost weathering should be intense in these areas. Our CRN-deduced point measurements of bedrock erosion are slower than typical basin-averaged denudation rates ( 50 m My−1). If our measured CRN erosion rates are accurate indicators of the rate at which summit flats are lowered by erosion, then relief in the mountain ranges examined here is probably increasing.
We develop a model of outcrop erosion to investigate the magnitude of errors associated with applying the steady-state erosion model to episodically eroding outcrops. Our simulations show that interpreting measurements with the steady-state erosion model can yield erosion rates which are either greater or less than the actual long-term mean erosion rate. While errors resulting from episodic erosion are potentially greater than both measurement and production rate errors for single samples, the mean value of many steady-state erosion rate measurements provides a much better estimate of the long-term erosion rate. 相似文献
Abstract On the island of Mustique, fresh and propylitized olivine–plagioclase–clinopyroxene basalt, plagioclase–clinopyroxene–orthopyroxene and plagioclase–clinopyroxene–amphibole andesite lavas and minor intrusions are interbedded with Oligocene pyroclastic and epiclastic rocks. Chemical data show that two isotopically identical, but chemically different, suites of lava are present: (i) the OPXS (87Sr/86Sr 0.70403–0.70454; 143Nd/144Nd 0.512952–0.512986; δ18Ocpx 5.49 and 5.61), comprising basalts and orthopyroxene‐bearing andesites; and (ii) the AMPHS (87Sr/86Sr 0.70401–0.70457; 143Nd/144Nd 0.512981–0.513037; δ18Ocpx 5.54), made up of basalts and amphibole‐bearing andesites. The OPXS has higher contents of TiO2, P2O5, light rare earth elements, Sm, Pb, Th, U, Zr, Y and Nb, and higher La/Yb ratios than the AMPHS. The isotopic data suggest that both suites formed from melts derived from the same subduction‐modified depleted mantle source as the volcanic rocks of nearby St Vincent and Bequia, and the northern islands of the Lesser Antilles Arc. The immobile trace element contents, and La/Yb ratios, of the OPXS are indicative of ~10% partial melting of the source, whereas those of the AMPHS are indicative of ~25% partial melting. The within‐suite chemical variation of the OPXS is consistent with ~45% fractional crystallization of its intratelluric mineral assemblages, and that of the AMPHS is consistent with the removal of ~65% of its intratelluric assemblages. Experimental evidence suggests that both suites of basalt crystallized at pressures <8 kbar from melts containing 1–2 wt% water. After extensive fractional crystallization, the andesites crystallized at pressures between approximately 5 and 2 kbar. The OPXS magmas appear to have lost more of their water content than the AMPHS magmas. Thus, the OPXS andesites formed from melts with an estimated water content of 2–3 wt%, whereas the AMPHS andesites formed from melts containing at least 4.5 wt% water. 相似文献
In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid. 相似文献
Seismic wavefield scattering from a statistically randomly rough interface in a multilayered piecewise homogeneous medium is studied in 3D. The influence of the surface roughness on the scattered wavefield is analysed numerically by using a finite‐difference operator in the acoustic domain. Since interface scattering in the real practical sense is a 3D physical phenomenon, we show in this work that the scattering response of a randomly rough interface is not the same in 3D situations as in the 2D cases described in some earlier works. For a given interface roughness height in 3D, an interface roughness height at least three times greater is required to produce an equivalent phase scattering effect in 2D situations, for a given correlation length of the interface roughness scale. Based on observations from spectral analysis, we show that scattering results principally in de‐phasing and frequency band‐limiting of the incident wavefront, the frequency band‐limiting properties being comparable to cases reported in the literature for absorption and thin‐layer filtering. The interface scattering phenomenon should be critically considered when using amplitude and phase information from seismic signal during inversion processes. 相似文献
New glass reference materials GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G and GSE-1G have been characterised using a prototype solid state laser ablation system capable of producing wavelengths of 193 nm, 213 nm and 266 nm. This system allowed comparison of the effects of different laser wavelengths under nearly identical ablation and ICP operating conditions. The wavelengths 213 nm and 266 nm were also used at higher energy densities to evaluate the influence of energy density on quantitative analysis. In addition, the glass reference materials were analysed using commercially available 266 nm Nd:YAG and 193 nm ArF excimer lasers. Laser ablation analysis was carried out using both single spot and scanning mode ablation. Using laser ablation ICP-MS, concentrations of fifty-eight elements were determined with external calibration to the NIST SRM 610 glass reference material. Instead of applying the more common internal standardisation procedure, the total concentration of all element oxide concentrations was normalised to 100%. Major element concentrations were compared with those determined by electron microprobe. In addition to NIST SRM 610 for external calibration, USGS BCR-2G was used as a more closely matrix-matched reference material in order to compare the effect of matrix-matched and non matrix-matched calibration on quantitative analysis. The results show that the various laser wavelengths and energy densities applied produced similar results, with the exception of scanning mode ablation at 266 nm without matrix-matched calibration where deviations up to 60% from the average were found. However, results acquired using a scanning mode with a matrix-matched calibration agreed with results obtained by spot analysis. The increased abundance of large particles produced when using a scanning ablation mode with NIST SRM 610, is responsible for elemental fractionation effects caused by incomplete vaporisation of large particles in the ICP. 相似文献
We present a new three-dimensional SV-wave velocity model for the upper mantle beneath South America and the surrounding oceans, built from the waveform inversion of 5850 Rayleigh wave seismograms. The dense path coverage and the use of higher modes to supplement the fundamental mode of surface waves allow us to constrain seismic heterogeneities with horizontal wavelengths of a few hundred kilometres in the uppermost 400 km of the mantle.The large scale features of our tomographic model confirm previous results from global and regional tomographic studies (e.g. the depth extent of the high velocity cratonic roots down to about 200–250 km).Several new features are highlighted in our model. Down to 100 km depth, the high velocity lid beneath the Amazonian craton is separated in two parts associated with the Guyana and Guapore shields, suggesting that the rifting episode responsible for the formation of the Amazon basin has involved a significant part of the lithosphere. Along the Andean subduction belt, the structure of the high velocity anomaly associated with the sudbduction of the Nazca plate beneath the South American plate reflects the along-strike variation in dip of the subducting plate. Slow velocities are observed down to about 100 km and 150 km at the intersection of the Carnegie and Chile ridges with the continent and are likely to represent the thermal anomalies associated with the subducted ridges. These lowered velocities might correspond to zones of weakness in the subducted plate and may have led to the formation of “slab windows” developed through unzipping of the subducted ridges; these windows might accommodate a transfer of asthenospheric mantle from the Pacific to the Atlantic ocean. From 150 to 250 km depth, the subducting Nazca plate is associated with high seismic velocities between 5°S and 37°S. We find high seismic velocities beneath the Paraná basin down to about 200 km depth, underlain by a low velocity anomaly in the depth range 200–400 km located beneath the Ponta Grossa arc at the southern tip of the basin. This high velocity anomaly is located southward of a narrow S-wave low velocity structure observed between 200 and 500–600 km depth in body wave studies, but irresolvable with our long period datasets. Both anomalies point to a model in which several, possibly diachronous, plumes have risen to the surface to generate the Paraná large igneous province (LIP). 相似文献
The diamondiferous Ellendale 9 (E9) pipe is a funnel-shaped maar-diatreme volcano consisting of inward-dipping tuff sequences intruded by lamproite plugs and dykes. The host rocks for the E9 pipe are Permian sandstones. The multiple lithological contacts exposed within the mined maar volcano provide a natural laboratory in which to study the effect of volcanic processes on U–Th–Pb–He systematics. Zircon from the regional sandstone and E9 lamproite display a bimodal distribution of ages on (U–Th)/He–U/Pb plots. The zircon U/Pb ages for the E9 pipe (n?=?52) range from 440 to 2,725 Ma, while the cluster of (U–Th)/He ages for the lamproite dyke zircon indicate that dyke emplacement occurred at 20.6?±?2.8 Ma, concordant with a maximum emplacement age of about ≤22 Ma from phlogopite 40Ar/39Ar. These ages indicate a xenocrystic origin for the zircon entrained in the E9 dyke. The U/Pb ages of detrital zircon from the regional sandstone host (373–3,248 Ma; n?=?41) are indistinguishable from those of the lamproite zircon xenocrysts, whereas the detrital zircon in the host sandstone yield (U–Th)/He ages from 260 to 1,500 Ma. A thermochronology traverse across the E9 lamproite dyke reveals that the zircon (U–Th)/He ages in the host sandstone have not been significantly thermally reset during dyke emplacement, even at the contact. The capability of the zircon (U–Th)/He method to distinguish deep, mantle source lithologies from upper crustal source lithologies could be used in geochemical exploration for diamonds. Pre-screening of detrital samples using etching and helium assay methods will improve the efficiency and decrease the cost of greenfields exploration. 相似文献
In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15–20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021–2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ. 相似文献
A numerical modelling study is presented focusing on the effects of mesoscale sea-surface temperature (SST) variability on
surface fluxes and the marine atmospheric boundary-layer structure. A basic scenario is examined having two regions of SST
anomaly with alternating warm/cold or cold/warm water regions. Conditions upstream from the anomaly region have SST values
equal to the ambient atmosphere temperature, creating an upstream neutrally stratified boundary layer. Downstream from the
anomaly region the SST is also set to the ambient atmosphere value. When the warm anomaly is upstream from the cold anomaly,
the downstream boundary layer exhibits a more complex structure because of convective forcing and mixed layer deepening upstream
from the cold anomaly. An internal boundary layer forms over the cold anomaly in this case, generating two distinct layers
over the downstream region. When the cold anomaly is upstream from the warm anomaly, mixing over the warm anomaly quickly
destroys the shallow cold layer, yielding a more uniform downstream boundary-layer vertical structure compared with the warm-to-
cold case. Analysis of the momentum budget indicates that turbulent momentum flux divergence dominates the velocity field
tendency, with pressure forcing accounting for only about 20% of the changes in momentum. Parameterization of surface fluxes
and boundary-layer structure at these scales would be very difficult because of their dependence on subgrid-scale SST spatial
order. Simulations of similar flow over smaller scale fronts (<5 km) suggest that small-scale SST variability might be parameterized
in mesoscale models by relating the effective heat flux to the strength of the SST variance. 相似文献