Understanding Climatic Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation in the United States: Building a Capacity for Assessment

Based on the experience of the U.S. National Assessment, we propose a program of research and analysis to advance capability for assessment of climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation options. We identify specific priorities for scientific research on the responses of ecological and socioeconomic systems to climate and other stresses; for improvement in the climatic inputs to impact assessments; and for further development of assessment methods to improve their practical utility to decision-makers. Finally, we propose a new institutional model for assessment, based principally on regional efforts that integrate observations, research, data, applications, and assessment on climate and linked environmental-change issues. The proposed program will require effective collaboration between scientists, resource managers, and other stakeholders, all of whose expertise is needed to define and prioritize key regional issues, characterize relevant uncertainties, and assess potential responses. While both scientifically and organizationally challenging, such an integrated program holds the best promise of advancing our capacity to manage resources and the economy adaptively under a changing climate.     

Erosion rates of alpine bedrock summit surfaces deduced from in situ Be and Al

We have measured the concentration of in situ produced cosmogenic ¹⁰Be and ²⁶Al from bare bedrock surfaces on summit flats in four western U.S. mountain ranges. The maximum mean bare-bedrock erosion rate from these alpine environments is 7.6 ± 3.9 m My⁻¹. Individual measurements vary between 2 and 19 m My⁻¹. These erosion rates are similar to previous cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) erosion rates measured in other environments, except for those from extremely arid regions. This indicates that bare bedrock is not weathered into transportable material more rapidly in alpine environments than in other environments, even though frost weathering should be intense in these areas. Our CRN-deduced point measurements of bedrock erosion are slower than typical basin-averaged denudation rates ( 50 m My⁻¹). If our measured CRN erosion rates are accurate indicators of the rate at which summit flats are lowered by erosion, then relief in the mountain ranges examined here is probably increasing.

We develop a model of outcrop erosion to investigate the magnitude of errors associated with applying the steady-state erosion model to episodically eroding outcrops. Our simulations show that interpreting measurements with the steady-state erosion model can yield erosion rates which are either greater or less than the actual long-term mean erosion rate. While errors resulting from episodic erosion are potentially greater than both measurement and production rate errors for single samples, the mean value of many steady-state erosion rate measurements provides a much better estimate of the long-term erosion rate.     

Nonlinear Shallow Water Theories for Coastal Waves

Ocean waves entering the near-shore zone undergo nonlinear and dispersive processes. This paper reviews nonlinear models, focusing on the so-called Serre equations. Techniques to overcome their limitations with respect to the phase speed are presented. Nonlinear behaviours are compared with theoretical results concerning the properties of Stokes waves. In addition, the models are tested against experiments concerning periodic wave transformation over a bar topography and of the shoaling of solitary waves on a beach.     

Petrogenesis of orthopyroxene- and amphibole-bearing andesites, Mustique, Grenadine Islands, Lesser Antilles Arc: Isotope, trace element and physical constraints

Abstract On the island of Mustique, fresh and propylitized olivine–plagioclase–clinopyroxene basalt, plagioclase–clinopyroxene–orthopyroxene and plagioclase–clinopyroxene–amphibole andesite lavas and minor intrusions are interbedded with Oligocene pyroclastic and epiclastic rocks. Chemical data show that two isotopically identical, but chemically different, suites of lava are present: (i) the OPXS (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr 0.70403–0.70454; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd 0.512952–0.512986; δ¹⁸O_cpx 5.49 and 5.61), comprising basalts and orthopyroxene‐bearing andesites; and (ii) the AMPHS (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr 0.70401–0.70457; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd 0.512981–0.513037; δ¹⁸O_cpx 5.54), made up of basalts and amphibole‐bearing andesites. The OPXS has higher contents of TiO₂, P₂O₅, light rare earth elements, Sm, Pb, Th, U, Zr, Y and Nb, and higher La/Yb ratios than the AMPHS. The isotopic data suggest that both suites formed from melts derived from the same subduction‐modified depleted mantle source as the volcanic rocks of nearby St Vincent and Bequia, and the northern islands of the Lesser Antilles Arc. The immobile trace element contents, and La/Yb ratios, of the OPXS are indicative of ～10% partial melting of the source, whereas those of the AMPHS are indicative of ～25% partial melting. The within‐suite chemical variation of the OPXS is consistent with ～45% fractional crystallization of its intratelluric mineral assemblages, and that of the AMPHS is consistent with the removal of ～65% of its intratelluric assemblages. Experimental evidence suggests that both suites of basalt crystallized at pressures <8 kbar from melts containing 1–2 wt% water. After extensive fractional crystallization, the andesites crystallized at pressures between approximately 5 and 2 kbar. The OPXS magmas appear to have lost more of their water content than the AMPHS magmas. Thus, the OPXS andesites formed from melts with an estimated water content of 2–3 wt%, whereas the AMPHS andesites formed from melts containing at least 4.5 wt% water.     

Design of backfilled thin-seam coal pillars using earth pressure theory

In underground coal mining any increase in coal recovery rate is dependent on a decrease in pillar size. Backfilling is one way of reducing the required size of pillars and hence the volume of coal left underground. Therefore any comparisons made between a self-supported mine layout and backfill supported mine layout are based directly on pillar design. The most effective way to examine the effect of backfill on pillar support, and subsequently the rate of recovery, would be to incorporate the mechanisms of backfill support directly into the current design procedure for coal pillars. This paper presents a review of the mechanics of backfill support, a method of estimating the magnitude of that support based on earth pressure theory, and an example that incorporates backfill support into current coal pillar design.     

Data assimilation (4D-VAR) to forecast flood in shallow-waters with sediment erosion

In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid.     

Numerical modelling of interface scattering of seismic wavefield from a random rough interface in an acoustic medium: comparison between 2D and 3D cases

Seismic wavefield scattering from a statistically randomly rough interface in a multilayered piecewise homogeneous medium is studied in 3D. The influence of the surface roughness on the scattered wavefield is analysed numerically by using a finite‐difference operator in the acoustic domain. Since interface scattering in the real practical sense is a 3D physical phenomenon, we show in this work that the scattering response of a randomly rough interface is not the same in 3D situations as in the 2D cases described in some earlier works. For a given interface roughness height in 3D, an interface roughness height at least three times greater is required to produce an equivalent phase scattering effect in 2D situations, for a given correlation length of the interface roughness scale. Based on observations from spectral analysis, we show that scattering results principally in de‐phasing and frequency band‐limiting of the incident wavefront, the frequency band‐limiting properties being comparable to cases reported in the literature for absorption and thin‐layer filtering. The interface scattering phenomenon should be critically considered when using amplitude and phase information from seismic signal during inversion processes.     

Preliminary Characterisation of New Glass Reference Materials (GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G and GSE-1G) by Laser Ablation-Inductively Coupled Plasma-Mass Spectrometry Using 193 nm, 213 nm and 266 nm Wavelengths

New glass reference materials GSA-1G, GSC-1G, GSD-1G and GSE-1G have been characterised using a prototype solid state laser ablation system capable of producing wavelengths of 193 nm, 213 nm and 266 nm. This system allowed comparison of the effects of different laser wavelengths under nearly identical ablation and ICP operating conditions. The wavelengths 213 nm and 266 nm were also used at higher energy densities to evaluate the influence of energy density on quantitative analysis. In addition, the glass reference materials were analysed using commercially available 266 nm Nd:YAG and 193 nm ArF excimer lasers. Laser ablation analysis was carried out using both single spot and scanning mode ablation. Using laser ablation ICP-MS, concentrations of fifty-eight elements were determined with external calibration to the NIST SRM 610 glass reference material. Instead of applying the more common internal standardisation procedure, the total concentration of all element oxide concentrations was normalised to 100%. Major element concentrations were compared with those determined by electron microprobe. In addition to NIST SRM 610 for external calibration, USGS BCR-2G was used as a more closely matrix-matched reference material in order to compare the effect of matrix-matched and non matrix-matched calibration on quantitative analysis. The results show that the various laser wavelengths and energy densities applied produced similar results, with the exception of scanning mode ablation at 266 nm without matrix-matched calibration where deviations up to 60% from the average were found. However, results acquired using a scanning mode with a matrix-matched calibration agreed with results obtained by spot analysis. The increased abundance of large particles produced when using a scanning ablation mode with NIST SRM 610, is responsible for elemental fractionation effects caused by incomplete vaporisation of large particles in the ICP.