Flare Prediction Using Photospheric and Coronal Image Data

The precise physical process that triggers solar flares is not currently understood. Here we attempt to capture the signature of this mechanism in solar-image data of various wavelengths and use these signatures to predict flaring activity. We do this by developing an algorithm that i) automatically generates features in 5.5 TB of image data taken by the Solar Dynamics Observatory of the solar photosphere, chromosphere, transition region, and corona during the time period between May 2010 and May 2014, ii) combines these features with other features based on flaring history and a physical understanding of putative flaring processes, and iii) classifies these features to predict whether a solar active region will flare within a time period of \(T\) hours, where \(T = 2 \mbox{ and }24\). Such an approach may be useful since, at the present time, there are no physical models of flares available for real-time prediction. We find that when optimizing for the True Skill Score (TSS), photospheric vector-magnetic-field data combined with flaring history yields the best performance, and when optimizing for the area under the precision–recall curve, all of the data are helpful. Our model performance yields a TSS of \(0.84 \pm0.03\) and \(0.81 \pm0.03\) in the \(T = 2\)- and 24-hour cases, respectively, and a value of \(0.13 \pm0.07\) and \(0.43 \pm0.08\) for the area under the precision–recall curve in the \(T=2\)- and 24-hour cases, respectively. These relatively high scores are competitive with previous attempts at solar prediction, but our different methodology and extreme care in task design and experimental setup provide an independent confirmation of these results. Given the similar values of algorithm performance across various types of models reported in the literature, we conclude that we can expect a certain baseline predictive capacity using these data. We believe that this is the first attempt to predict solar flares using photospheric vector-magnetic field data as well as multiple wavelengths of image data from the chromosphere, transition region, and corona, and it points the way towards greater data integration across diverse sources in future work.     

An algorithm for soil moisture estimation using GPS-interferometric reflectometry for bare and vegetated soil

Ground-reflected global positioning system signals measured by a geodetic-quality GPS system can be used to infer temporal changes in near-surface soil moisture for the area surrounding the antenna. This technique, known as GPS-interferometric reflectometry, analyzes changes in the interference pattern of the direct and reflected signals, which are recorded in signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) data, as interferograms. Temporal fluctuations in the phase of the interferogram are indicative of changes in near-surface volumetric soil moisture content. However, SNR phase is also highly sensitive to changes in overlying vegetation, and thus, the effects of seasonal vegetation changes on the ground-reflected signal must be considered. Here a method is described for determining whether SNR data are significantly corrupted by vegetation and for correcting these effects. Absolute soil moisture content must be determined for each site using ancillary data for the residual moisture content. Accounting for vegetation effects significantly improves the agreement between GPS-derived soil moisture and in situ measurements.     

Do organic ligands affect calcite dissolution rates?

Steady state Iceland-spar calcite dissolution rates were measured at 25 °C in aqueous solutions containing 0.1 M NaCl and up to 0.05 M dissolved bicarbonate at pH from 7.9 to 9.1 in the presence of 13 distinct dissolved organic ligands in mixed-flow reactors. The organic ligands considered in this study include those most likely to be present in either (1) aquifers at the conditions pertinent to CO₂ sequestration or (2) soil/early diagenetic environments: acetate, phthalate, citrate, EDTA⁴⁻, succinate, d-glucosaminate, l-glutamate, d-gluconate, 2,4-dihydroxybenzoate, 3,4-dihydroxybenzoate, fumarate, malonate, and gallate. Results show that the presence of <0.05 mol/kg of these organic anions changes calcite dissolution rates by less than a factor of 2.5 with the exception of citrate and EDTA⁴⁻. The presence of 0.05 mol/kg citrate and EDTA⁴⁻ increases calcite dissolution rates by as much as a factor of 35 and 500, respectively, compared to rates in organic anion-free solutions. Further calcite dissolution experiments were performed in the presence of organic polymers similar to bacterial exudates, cell exopolysaccharides, and analogs of microbial cell envelopes: alginate, lichen extract, humic acid, pectin, and gum xanthan. In no case did the presence of <100 ppm of these organics change calcite dissolution rates by more than a factor of 2.5. Results obtained in this study suggest that the presence of aqueous organic anions negligibly affects calcite forward dissolution rates in most natural environments. Some effect on calcite reactivity may be observed, however, by the presence of organic anions if they change substantially the chemical affinity of the fluid with respect to calcite.     

CO2-driven cation leaching after tropical forest clearing

The objective of this study was to investigate the role of dissolved CO₂ (H₂CO₃*) as a mechanism of cation removal from surface soils under secondary land uses in the tropics. Soil leachate columns were prepared with 0–10 cm soils from mature and secondary forest, and managed pastures, and extracted with H₂CO₃* from deionized water equilibrated with 0%, 0.5%, 1%, and 10% CO₂ (g). Extraction of soil cations slowed over time following an exponential form for the cumulative data. The rate of cation concentration decline varied as a function of CO₂ concentration with the 10% solution resulting in a greater percent decline with extraction volume. Potassium removal from the exchange sites of all soils and for all solutions was nearly complete ranging from 85% to 97% while removals of Mg (31% to 71%) and Ca (12% to 42%) were lower. The asymptotic patterns of cation loss observed in this study suggest that H₂CO₃* acid-driven losses of cations may become self-limiting over time. Other stronger acids from atmospheric deposition or organic sources may serve to perpetuate cation removal, and re-forestation on these cleared lands would certainly re-distribute cations from soils to vegetation.     

Discriminating Fog and Rain at the Kilometre Scale Using the Extinction from Collocated Infrared and Microwave Scintillometers

Boundary-Layer Meteorology - We investigate the path-averaged visibility and discrimination of fog and rain events using a two-wavelength (near-infrared and microwave) scintillometer system. These...     

Timescale of open-reservoir evolution beneath the south Cleft segment, Juan de Fuca ridge

Lavas erupted at the southern end of the intermediate Juan de Fuca ridge (Cleft segment) are mostly cogenetic and their chemical diversity results from melt evolution in an open magma system. In the present study, we apply a theoretical model allowing the time evolution of this periodically recharged and tapped magma chamber to be estimated. In our mathematical procedure, the melt quantity supplied to the reservoir varies through time following a sinusoidal function. The rare earth element concentrations in the refilling melt were calculated on the basis of the REE distribution in lavas. This theoretical composition is akin to that previously estimated for a Mg#70 MORB from mineralogical and chemical data. Then, we approached the temporal evolution of the reservoir using a set of suitable parameters deduced from the geometry of the crust and magma system beneath the Cleft segment. Particularly, we considered two end-members scenarios for the melt repartition through the magma reservoir beneath the Cleft segment: the “gabbro glacier” model (crystal nucleation and growth occur within one single melt lens and crystals subside vertically and laterally) and the “sheeted sill” model (crystallization takes place within a network of connected sills located at various depths within the crust). We estimated that the magma chamber is refilled every thousand years and that the melt resides approximately one hundred years within the reservoir.     

A flux-limiting wetting–drying method for finite-element shallow-water models,with application to the Scheldt Estuary

We present a flux-limiting wetting–drying approach for finite-element discretizations of the shallow-water equations using discontinuous linear elements for the elevation. The key ingredient of the method is the use of limiters for generalized nodal fluxes. This method is implemented into the Second-generation Louvain-la-Neuve Ice-ocean Model (SLIM), and is verified against standard test cases. The method is further applied to the wetting and drying of sand banks in the Scheldt Estuary, which is located in northern Belgium and the southern Netherlands. The results obtained for both the benchmarks and the realistic problem illustrate the accuracy of the method in describing the hydrodynamics in the vicinity of dry areas. In particular, the method strictly conserves mass, and there is no transport through dry areas.