Modeling Variably Saturated Subsurface Solute Transport with MODFLOW‐UZF and MT3DMS

The MT3DMS groundwater solute transport model was modified to simulate solute transport in the unsaturated zone by incorporating the unsaturated‐zone flow (UZF1) package developed for MODFLOW. The modified MT3DMS code uses a volume‐averaged approach in which Lagrangian‐based UZF1 fluid fluxes and storage changes are mapped onto a fixed grid. Referred to as UZF‐MT3DMS, the linked model was tested against published benchmarks solved analytically as well as against other published codes, most frequently the U.S. Geological Survey's Variably‐Saturated Two‐Dimensional Flow and Transport Model. Results from a suite of test cases demonstrate that the modified code accurately simulates solute advection, dispersion, and reaction in the unsaturated zone. Two‐ and three‐dimensional simulations also were investigated to ensure unsaturated‐saturated zone interaction was simulated correctly. Because the UZF1 solution is analytical, large‐scale flow and transport investigations can be performed free from the computational and data burdens required by numerical solutions to Richards' equation. Results demonstrate that significant simulation runtime savings can be achieved with UZF‐MT3DMS, an important development when hundreds or thousands of model runs are required during parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis. Three‐dimensional variably saturated flow and transport simulations revealed UZF‐MT3DMS to have runtimes that are less than one tenth of the time required by models that rely on Richards' equation. Given its accuracy and efficiency, and the wide‐spread use of both MODFLOW and MT3DMS, the added capability of unsaturated‐zone transport in this familiar modeling framework stands to benefit a broad user‐ship.     

Application du réseau des neurones artificiels à la prévision des débits horaires: Cas du bassin versant de l’Eure,France

RÉSUMÉ

Les modèles pluie–débit sont fortement utilisés dans la gestion des risques hydrologiques et la prévision des crues. Dans cette étude, nous présentons un modèle pluie–débit pour la prévision des débits horaires basé sur la technique des réseaux de neurones artificiels (RNA). Ce modèle a été développé et appliqué sur le bassin versant de l’Eure au Nord-Ouest de la France afin de dépasser les problèmes dus à la non-linéarité de la relation pluie–débit et à l’imprécision des données collectées. La création de ce modèle a nécessité plusieurs étapes pendant lesquelles nous avons pu déterminer les paramètres du modèle permettant la compréhension de la complexité hydrologique et la production des informations nécessaires à la prévision. Elles ont abouti à un modèle de réseau de neurones artificiels capable d’effectuer, en quelques secondes, des prévisions des crues efficaces jusqu’à un horizon de prévision de 48 h. Ces résultats confirment que les modèles RNA peuvent jouer un rôle important dans le domaine de la prévision car capables de modéliser la non-linéarité des relations pluie–débit rencontrées sur certains bassins hydrologiques.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz Associate editor E. Gargouri     

Nonlinear Shallow Water Theories for Coastal Waves

Ocean waves entering the near-shore zone undergo nonlinear and dispersive processes. This paper reviews nonlinear models, focusing on the so-called Serre equations. Techniques to overcome their limitations with respect to the phase speed are presented. Nonlinear behaviours are compared with theoretical results concerning the properties of Stokes waves. In addition, the models are tested against experiments concerning periodic wave transformation over a bar topography and of the shoaling of solitary waves on a beach.     

Modelling larval dispersal of the king scallop (Pecten maximus) in the English Channel: examples from the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine

The king scallop (Pecten maximus) is one of the most important benthic species of the English Channel as it constitutes the first fishery in terms of landings in this area. To support strategies of spatial fishery management, we develop a high-resolution biophysical model to study scallop dispersal in two bays along the French coasts of the English Channel (i.e. the bay of Saint-Brieuc and the bay of Seine) and to quantify the relative roles of local hydrodynamic processes, temperature-dependent planktonic larval duration (PLD) and active swimming behaviour (SB). The two bays are chosen for three reasons: (1) the distribution of the scallop stocks in these areas is well known from annual scallop stock surveys, (2) these two bays harbour important fisheries and (3) scallops in these two areas present some differences in terms of reproductive cycle and spawning duration. The English Channel currents and temperature are simulated for 10 years (2000–2010) with the MARS-3D code and then used by the Lagrangian module of MARS-3D to model the transport. Results were analysed in terms of larval distribution at settlement and connectivity rates. While larval transport in the two bays depended both on the tidal residual circulation and the wind-induced currents, the relative role of these two hydrodynamic processes varied among bays. In the bay of Saint-Brieuc, the main patterns of larval dispersal were due to tides, the wind being only a source of variability in the extent of larval patch and the local retention rate. Conversely, in the bay of Seine, wind-induced currents altered both the direction and the extent of larval transport. The main effect of a variable PLD in relation to the thermal history of each larva was to reduce the spread of dispersal and consequently increase the local retention by about 10 % on average. Although swimming behaviour could influence larval dispersal during the first days of the PLD when larvae are mainly located in surface waters, it has a minor role on larval distribution at settlement and retention rates. The analysis of the connectivity between subpopulations within each bay allows identifying the main sources of larvae which depend on both the characteristics of local hydrodynamics and the spatial heterogeneity in the reproductive outputs.     

How U.S. ocean policy and market power can reform the coral reef wildlife trade

As the world’s largest importer of marine ornamental species for the aquaria, curio, home décor, and jewelry industries, the United States has an opportunity to leverage its considerable market power to promote more sustainable trade and reduce the effects of ornamental trade stress on coral reefs worldwide. Evidence indicates that collection of some coral reef animals for these trades has caused virtual elimination of local populations, major changes in age structure, and promotion of collection practices that destroy reef habitats. Management and enforcement of collection activities in major source countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines remain weak. Strengthening US trade laws and enforcement capabilities combined with increasing consumer and industry demand for responsible conservation can create strong incentives for improving management in source countries. This is particularly important in light of the March 2010 failure of the parties to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) to take action on key groups of corals.     

Atmospheric forcing of the eastern tropical Pacific: A review

The increase in marine, land surface, atmospheric and satellite data during recent decades has led to an improved understanding of the air–sea interaction processes in the eastern tropical Pacific. This is also thanks to extensive diagnoses from conceptual and coupled ocean–atmosphere numerical models. In this paper, mean fields of atmospheric variables, such as incoming solar radiation, sea level pressure, winds, wind stress curl, precipitation, evaporation, and surface energy fluxes, are derived from global atmospheric data sets in order to examine the dominant features of the low level atmospheric circulations of the region. The seasonal march of the atmospheric circulations is presented to depict the role of radiative forcing on atmospheric perturbations, especially those dominating the atmosphere at low levels.In the tropics, the trade winds constitute an important north–south energy and moisture exchange mechanism (as part of the low level branch of the Hadley circulation), that determines to a large extent the precipitation distribution in the region, i.e., that associated with the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Monsoonal circulations also play an important role in determining the warm season precipitation distribution over the eastern tropical Pacific through a large variety of air–sea–land interaction mechanisms. Westward traveling waves, tropical cyclones, low latitude cold air intrusions, and other synoptic and mesoscale perturbations associated with the ITCZ are also important elements that modulate the annual rainfall cycle. The low-level jets of the Gulf of California, the Intra-Americas Sea (Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea) and Chocó, Colombia are prominent features of the eastern tropical Pacific low-level circulations related to sub-regional and regional scale precipitation patterns. Observations show that the Intra-Americas Low-Level Jet intensity varies with El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, however its origin and role in the westward propagation and development of disturbances that may hit the eastern tropical Pacific, such as easterly waves and tropical cyclones, are still unclear. Changes in the intensity of the trade winds in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico (associated with eastern tropical Pacific wind jets) exert an important control on precipitation by means of wind–topography interactions. Gaps in the mountains of southern Mexico and Central America allow strong wind jets to pass over the continent imprinting a unique signal in sea surface temperatures and ocean dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific.The warm pools of the Americas constitute an important source of moisture for the North American Monsoon System. The northeastern tropical Pacific is a region of intense cyclogenetic activity, just west of the coast of Mesoamerica. Over the oceanic regions, large-scale properties of key variables such as precipitation, moisture, surface energy fluxes and wind stress curl are still uncertain, which inhibits a more comprehensive view of the region and stresses the importance of regional field experiments. Progress has been substantial in the understanding of the ocean and atmospheric dynamics of the eastern tropical Pacific, however, recent observational evidence such as that of a shallow meridional circulation cell in that region, in contrast to the classic concept of the Hadley-type deep meridional circulation, suggests that more in situ observations to validate theories are still necessary.This paper is part of a comprehensive review of the oceanography of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.     

Confirmation of radio absorption by the intergalactic medium

The conventional interpretation of the cosmic background radiation (CBR) as a relic of the Big Bang assumes that the intergalactic medium is highly transparent to radio frequency radiation. Previous work (Lerner, 1990) used the well-known correlation of IR and radio luminosities of spiral galaxies to test this assumption. That analysis, using 237 Shapley-Ames galaxies showed that radio luminosity (L _R ) for a given IR-luminosity, declines with distance, implying that the IGM strongly absorbs radio frequency radiation. That absorption has now been confirmed using a sample of 301 IR-bright galaxies. Using two independent methods of determining the correlation of IR and radio luminosities of spiral and interacting galaxies, the sample shows that for a givenL _IR ,L _R D ^{–0.32±0.04} over a range of distances from 0.7-300 Mpc. (H ₀ = 75 km s^–1 Mpc^–1). The correlation is significant at the 8 or 10^–14 level. Absorption by the IGM is the only reasonable explanation for this correlation. The existence of such absorption implies that neither the isotropy nor the spectrum of the CBR are primordial and that neither is evidence for a Big Bang.