A georeferenced agent-based model to analyze the climate change impacts on ski tourism at a regional scale

One main argument for modeling socio-ecological systems is to advance the understanding of dynamic correlations between various human and environmental factors, including impacts and responses to environmental change. We explore the shift in skier distribution among ski resorts taking into account the behavioral adaptation of individuals due to the impact of climate change on snow conditions. This analysis is performed at a regional scale by means of a coupled gravity and georeferenced agent-based model. Four different scenarios are considered. Two scenarios assume an increase of winter mean temperature of +2°C and +4°C, respectively, taking into account only natural snow conditions. Two additional scenarios add the effect of snowmaking to enhance the natural snow depth and extend the skiing season in the +2°C and +4°C base scenarios. Results show differing vulnerability levels, allowing the classification of ski resorts into three distinct groups: (1) highly vulnerable ski resorts with a strong reduction in visitors attendance for all climate change scenarios, characterized by unfavorable geographical and attractiveness conditions, making it difficult to ensure snow availability in the future; (2) low vulnerability ski resorts, with moderate reduction in season length during a high climate change scenario but no reduction (or even an increase) in a low one, characterized by ski resorts with a medium capacity and attractiveness to ensure enough snow conditions and capture skiers from other ski resorts; and (3) resilient ski resorts, with good conditions to ensure future snow-reliable seasons and outstanding attractiveness, allowing them to offer longer ski seasons than their competitors and potentially attracting skiers from other closed or marginal resorts. Ski resorts included in this last group increase their skier attendance in all climate change scenarios. Although similar studies in the literature foretell a significant reduction of the ski market in the near future, another probable effect outlined in this study is a redefinition of this market due to a redistribution of skiers, from vulnerable ski resorts to more resilient ones.     

Coupled climate impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway

Tectonically-active gateways between ocean basins have modified ocean circulation over Earth history. Today, the Atlantic and Pacific are directly connected via the Drake Passage, which forms a barrier to the time-mean geostrophic transport between the subtropics and Antarctica. In contrast, during the warm early Cenozoic era, when Antarctica was ice-free, the Drake Passage was closed. Instead, at that time, the separation of North and South America provided a tropical seaway between the Atlantic and Pacific that remained open until the Isthmus of Panama formed in the relatively recent geological past. Ocean circulation models have previously been used to explore the individual impacts of the Drake Passage and the Panama Seaway, but rarely have the two gateways been considered together, and most explorations have used very simple atmospheric models. Here we use a coupled ocean–ice–atmosphere model (GFDL’s CM2Mc), to simulate the impacts of a closed Drake Passage both with and without a Panama Seaway. We find that the climate response to a closed Drake Passage is relatively small when the Panama Seaway is absent, similar to prior studies, although the coupling to a dynamical atmosphere does increase the temperature change. However, with a Panama Seaway, closing Drake Passage has a much larger effect, due to the cessation of deep water formation in the northern hemisphere. Both gateways alter the transport of salt by ocean circulation, with the Panama Seaway allowing fresh Pacific water to be imported to the North Atlantic, and the Drake Passage preventing the flow of saline subtropical water to the circum-Antarctic, a flow that is particularly strong when the Panama Seaway is open. Thus, with a Panama Seaway and a closed Drake Passage, the Southern Ocean tends to be relatively salty, while the North Atlantic tends to be relatively fresh, such that the deep ocean is ventilated from the circum-Antarctic. Ensuing changes in the ocean heat transport drive a bi-polar shift of surface ocean temperatures, and the Intertropical Convergence Zone migrates toward the warmer southern hemisphere. The response of clouds to changes in surface ocean temperatures amplifies the climate response, resulting in temperature changes of up to 9 °C over Antarctica, even in the absence of land-ice feedbacks. These results emphasize the importance of tectonic gateways to the climate history of the Cenozoic, and support a role for ocean circulation changes in the glaciation of Antarctica.     

Enhancing the relevance of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways for climate change impacts,adaptation and vulnerability research

This paper discusses the role and relevance of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and the new scenarios that combine SSPs with representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability (IAV) research. It first provides an overview of uses of social–environmental scenarios in IAV studies and identifies the main shortcomings of earlier such scenarios. Second, the paper elaborates on two aspects of the SSPs and new scenarios that would improve their usefulness for IAV studies compared to earlier scenario sets: (i) enhancing their applicability while retaining coherence across spatial scales, and (ii) adding indicators of importance for projecting vulnerability. The paper therefore presents an agenda for future research, recommending that SSPs incorporate not only the standard variables of population and gross domestic product, but also indicators such as income distribution, spatial population, human health and governance.     

Detecting space–time patterns of disease risk under dynamic background population

Journal of Geographical Systems - We are able to collect vast quantities of spatiotemporal data due to recent technological advances. Exploratory space–time data analysis approaches can...     

Distribution and Abundance of Arsenic in the Soils and Sediments of O‘ahu,Hawai‘i

Lack of high-spatial-resolution soil and sediment arsenic data for Hawai‘i has generated substantial disagreement between researchers and regulators regarding the magnitude of natural levels of arsenic in Hawai‘i and rendered difficult the defining of areas of anthropogenically elevated arsenic. Our earlier research into the occurrence of arsenic in terrestrial and marine environments revealed widely disparate concentrations of arsenic with no apparent spatial pattern. To better understand the distribution and abundance of arsenic in soils and sediments of O‘ahu, we collected an additional 64 samples at locations chosen to represent different environments with varying degrees of human impact. We found surface arsenic values that ranged from 0.28 to 740 ppm with a median concentration of 8.1 ppm, which is above the global median of 5 ppm and US soil median of 5.2 ppm. Higher concentrations of arsenic (up to 913 ppm) were encountered at depth in soil cores. The median arsenic in streambed sediments from one of our earlier studies of 6.1 ppm was comparable to the conterminous US median of 6.3 ppm; however, we encountered arsenic concentrations as high as 43.9 ppm (median = 8.60 ppm, n = 75) in marine sediments in recent work off the leeward coast of O‘ahu. Overall, arsenic in the soils and sediments of O‘ahu is elevated relative to world and national values, but there still is no readily discernible pattern in the distribution of arsenic to explain these elevated values.     

Mapping collective human activity in an urban environment based on mobile phone data

Identifying and characterizing variations of human activity – specifically changes in intensity and similarity – in urban environments provide insights into the social component of those eminently complex systems. Using large volumes of user-generated mobile phone data, we derive mobile communication profiles that we use as a proxy for the collective human activity. In this article, geocomputational methods and geovisual analytics such as self-organizing maps (SOM) are used to explore the variations of these profiles, and its implications for collective human activity. We evaluate the merits of SOM as a cross-dimensional clustering technique and derived temporal trajectories of variations within the mobile communication profiles. The trajectories’ characteristics such as length are discussed, suggesting spatial variations in intensity and similarity in collective human activity. Trajectories are linked back to the geographic space to map the spatial and temporal variation of trajectory characteristics. Different trajectory lengths suggest that mobile phone activity is correlated with the spatial configuration of the city, and so at different times of the day. Our approach contributes to the understanding of the space-time social dynamics within urban environments.     

Laboratory plasma dynamos, astrophysical dynamos and magnetic helicity evolution

The term 'dynamo' means different things to the laboratory fusion plasma and astrophysical plasma communities. To alleviate the resulting confusion and to facilitate interdisciplinary progress, we pinpoint conceptual differences and similarities between laboratory plasma dynamos and astrophysical dynamos. We can divide dynamos into three types: 1. magnetically dominated helical dynamos which sustain a large-scale magnetic field against resistive decay and drive the magnetic geometry towards the lowest energy state, 2. flow-driven helical dynamos which amplify or sustain large-scale magnetic fields in an otherwise turbulent flow and 3. flow-driven non-helical dynamos which amplify fields on scales at or below the driving turbulence. We discuss how all three types occur in astrophysics whereas plasma confinement device dynamos are of the first type. Type 3 dynamos require no magnetic or kinetic helicity of any kind. Focusing on Types 1 and 2 dynamos, we show how different limits of a unified set of equations for magnetic helicity evolution reveal both types. We explicitly describe a steady-state example of a Type 1 dynamo, and three examples of Type 2 dynamos: (i) closed volume and time dependent; (ii) steady state with open boundaries; (iii) time dependent with open boundaries.     

A geology of the road

Before the Roman came to Rye or out to Severn strode,
The rolling English drunkard made the rolling English road.     

Mid-infrared, spatially resolved spectroscopy of the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy

High spatial resolution spectroscopy at 8–13 μm with T-ReCS on Gemini-S has revealed striking variations in the mid-infrared emission and absorption in the nucleus of the Circinus galaxy (hereafter Circinus) on subarcsecond scales. The core of Circinus is compact and obscured by a substantial column of cool silicate dust. Weak extended emission to the east and west coincides with the coronal line region and arises from featureless dust grains which are probably heated by line emission in the coronal emission zone. The extended emission on the east side of the nucleus displays a much deeper silicate absorption than that on the west, indicating significant columns of cool material along the line of sight and corresponding to an additional extinction of   A_V ∼ 25 mag  . Emission bands from aromatic hydrocarbons are not subject to this additional extinction, are relatively weak in the core and in the coronal line region, and are much more spatially extended than the continuum dust emission; they presumably arise in the circumnuclear star-forming regions. These data are interpreted in terms of an inclined disc-like structure around the nucleus extending over tens of parsecs and possibly related to the inner disc found from observations of water masers by Greenhill et al..