Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards

The effect of undersampling on estimating the size of extreme natural hazards from historical data is examined. Tests using synthetic catalogs indicate that the tail of an empirical size distribution sampled from a pure Pareto probability distribution can range from having one-to-several unusually large events to appearing depleted, relative to the parent distribution. Both of these effects are artifacts caused by limited catalog length. It is more difficult to diagnose the artificially depleted empirical distributions, since one expects that a pure Pareto distribution is physically limited in some way. Using maximum-likelihood methods and the method of moments, we estimate the power-law exponent and the corner size parameter of tapered Pareto distributions for several natural hazard examples: tsunamis, floods, and earthquakes. Each of these examples has varying catalog lengths and measurement thresholds, relative to the largest event sizes. In many cases where there are only several orders of magnitude between the measurement threshold and the largest events, joint two-parameter estimation techniques are necessary to account for estimation dependence between the power-law scaling exponent and the corner size parameter. Results indicate that whereas the corner size parameter of a tapered Pareto distribution can be estimated, its upper confidence bound cannot be determined and the estimate itself is often unstable with time. Correspondingly, one cannot statistically reject a pure Pareto null hypothesis using natural hazard catalog data. Although physical limits to the hazard source size and attenuation mechanisms from source to site constrain the maximum hazard size, historical data alone often cannot reliably determine the corner size parameter. Probabilistic assessments incorporating theoretical constraints on source size and propagation effects are preferred over deterministic assessments of extreme natural hazards based on historical data.     

Silicate melt removal and sulfide liquid retention in ultramafic rocks of the Duke Island Complex,Southeastern Alaska

Magmatic Ni-Cu-PGE sulfide mineralization occurs within olivine clinopyroxenite, hornblende-bearing clinopyroxenite, and magnetite-hornblende-rich rocks in the Ural-Alaskan-Type Duke Island Complex in Southeast Alaska. The addition of large amounts of sulfur from country rocks occurred during fractional crystallization of the parental magma when clinopyroxene was becoming a liquidus mineral. Textural interfaces between sulfide and silicate minerals are strongly interlobate, and differ significantly from net-textures that are developed in many Ni-Cu-PGE deposits. Sulfide-free olivine clinopyroxenite is an adcumulate; residual liquid was efficiently expelled from the accumulating crystal pile. A significant interstitial liquid component is observable only in the form of interstitial sulfide in the S-rich rocks. Rounded sulfide inclusions and blebby to vermicular sulfide-silicate intergrowths indicate that silicate crystallization occurred under conditions of sulfide saturation. The presence of dense sulfide liquid inhibited the growth of silicate minerals and led to the development of interlobate grain boundaries. Strong, localized wetting of sulfide liquids on crystallizing silicates, and downward percolation of sulfide liquid through a crystallizing mush may have contributed to the evolution of these textures. Residual silicate liquid was removed from the system due to a combination of buoyant advection and compaction, but dense sulfide liquid remained.     

Partial Saturation and Seismicity on Steep Reclaimed Slopes

While traditional mine reclamation methods emphasize compaction to increase the strength of the materials and ensure stability of the restored slope, high compaction restricts the successful reforestation of reclaimed mine sites. The Forest Reclamation Approach (FRA), which uses low compaction in the uppermost 1.2–1.5 m of the surface has been shown to facilitate the establishment of healthy native forests. Stability analyses of three steep FRA slopes from the southern Appalachian region have shown that the long-term static stability is not compromised, and that the infinite slope method provides a rational method to evaluate the stability of steep FRA slopes. In this article, modifications of the infinite slope equation are utilized to (a) include the effects of matric suction due to unsaturated soil conditions and (b) evaluate the seismic performance of FRA slopes based on spectral accelerations. Monthly variation of the water content at three research sites demonstrated the seasonal stability variation of FRA slopes due to matric suction, while seismic analyses illustrated the conditions under which instability may occur.     

准噶尔翼龙的椎体管道

The anatomical term tuba vertebralis was introduced by Martill et al. (1998) to describe a bony tube which enclosed the spinal cord in the type cervical vertebra of the giant azhdarchid pterosaur Arambourgiania philadelphiae, from the Late Cretaceous of Jordan.     

Quo vadis neoliberalism? The remaking of global capitalist governance after the Washington Consensus

The Washington Consensus, through which neoliberal global capitalist governance gained hegemony over the third world, entered a crisis in the late 1990s. Triggered by the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and by contestations of neoliberal governance from global civil society, two remakings of global capitalist governance can be identified: A ‘post-Washington consensus’ whose relation to neoliberalism is complex; and a ‘new development economics’ that advocates Keynesian principles. Irrespective of the trajectory of this emergent phase of re-regulation, particularly after the 2008 global finance crisis, these remakings can be conceptualized as supplements reinforcing an imaginary of capitalism as the solution to, rather than progenitor of, uneven development. Through discourses of capitalist development as a sequential trajectory to be followed by all countries, as flattening the world to enable catch-up by backward countries, and as incorporating socio-spatial difference via its commodification, this socio-spatial imaginary functions to legitimate expertise located in the first world, and global capitalist governance, irrespective of serial policy failures.     

Radar and infrared observations of binary near-Earth Asteroid 2002 CE26

We observed near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) 2002 CE26 in August and September 2004 using the Arecibo S-band (2380-MHz, 12.6-cm) radar and NASA's Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF). Shape models obtained based on inversion of our delay-Doppler images show the asteroid to be 3.5±0.4 km in diameter and spheroidal; our corresponding nominal estimates of its visual and radar albedos are 0.07 and 0.24, respectively. Our IRTF spectrum shows the asteroid to be C-class with no evidence of hydration. Thermal models from the IRTF data provide a size and visual albedo consistent with the radar-derived estimate. We estimate the spin-pole to be within a few tens of degrees of λ=317°, β=−20°. Our radar observations reveal a secondary approximately 0.3 km in diameter, giving this binary one of the largest size differentials of any known NEA. The secondary is in a near-circular orbit with period 15.6±0.1 h and a semi-major axis of 4.7±0.2 km. Estimates of the binary orbital pole and secondary rotation rate are consistent with the secondary being in a spin-locked equatorial orbit. The orbit corresponds to a primary mass of M=1.95±0.25×¹⁰¹³ kg, leading to a primary bulk density of , one of the lowest values yet measured for a main-belt or near-Earth asteroid.     

Simulations of the Madden–Julian oscillation in four pairs of coupled and uncoupled global models

The status of the numerical reproduction of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) by current global models was assessed through diagnoses of four pairs of coupled and uncoupled simulations. Slow eastward propagation of the MJO, especially in low-level zonal wind, is realistic in all these simulations. However, the simulated MJO suffers from several common problems. The MJO signal in precipitation is generally too weak and often eroded by an unrealistic split of an equatorial maximum of precipitation into a double ITCZ structure over the western Pacific. The MJO signal in low-level zonal wind, on the other hand, is sometimes too strong over the eastern Pacific but too weak over the Indian Ocean. The observed phase relationship between precipitation and low-level zonal wind associated with the MJO in the western Pacific and their coherence in general are not reproduced by the models. The seasonal migration in latitude of MJO activity is missing in most simulations. Air–sea coupling generally strengthens the simulated eastward propagating signal, but its effects on the phase relationship and coherence between precipitation and low-level zonal wind, and on their geographic distributions, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability are inconsistent among the simulations. Such inconsistency cautions generalization of results from MJO simulations using a single model. In comparison to observations, biases in the simulated MJO appear to be related to biases in the background state of mean precipitation, low-level zonal wind, and boundary-layer moisture convergence. This study concludes that, while the realistic simulations of the eastward propagation of the MJO are encouraging, reproducing other fundamental features of the MJO by current global models remains an unmet challenge.

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Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

To assess the influence of global climate change at the regional scale, we examine past and future changes in key climate, hydrological, and biophysical indicators across the US Northeast (NE). We first consider the extent to which simulations of twentieth century climate from nine atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) are able to reproduce observed changes in these indicators. We then evaluate projected future trends in primary climate characteristics and indicators of change, including seasonal temperatures, rainfall and drought, snow cover, soil moisture, streamflow, and changes in biometeorological indicators that depend on threshold or accumulated temperatures such as growing season, frost days, and Spring Indices (SI). Changes in indicators for which temperature-related signals have already been observed (seasonal warming patterns, advances in high-spring streamflow, decreases in snow depth, extended growing seasons, earlier bloom dates) are generally reproduced by past model simulations and are projected to continue in the future. Other indicators for which trends have not yet been observed also show projected future changes consistent with a warmer climate (shrinking snow cover, more frequent droughts, and extended low-flow periods in summer). The magnitude of temperature-driven trends in the future are generally projected to be higher under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) mid-high (A2) and higher (A1FI) emissions scenarios than under the lower (B1) scenario. These results provide confidence regarding the direction of many regional climate trends, and highlight the fundamental role of future emissions in determining the potential magnitude of changes we can expect over the coming century.

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Localized zones of denitrification in a floodplain aquifer in southern Wisconsin, USA

A floodplain aquifer within an agricultural watershed near Madison, Wisconsin (USA), was studied to determine whether denitrification was occurring below the surface organic layer. Groundwater levels and concentrations of O₂, Cl^?, NO ₃ ^? , SO ₄ ^2? , dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and major cations were monitored over a 1-year period along a 230-m transect between an agricultural field and a stream discharge point. Seventeen groundwater samples were analyzed for δ¹⁵N_NO3 and δ¹⁸O_NO3 composition. Samples in which NO ₃ ^? was too low for stable isotope analysis were analyzed for excess dissolved N₂. Groundwater NO ₃ ^? concentrations declined between the agricultural field and the discharge point. Chloride and δ¹⁵N_NO3/δ¹⁸O_NO3 data indicated that the drop in NO ₃ ^? was caused primarily by dilution of shallow NO ₃ ^? -rich water with deeper, NO ₃ ^? -depleted groundwater. Two localized zones of denitrification were identified in the upland-wetland transition by their δ¹⁵N_NO3 and δ¹⁸O_NO3 signatures, and two in the stream hyporheic zone by the presence of excess dissolved N₂. The combined stratigraphic, hydrologic, and geochemical data in these locations correspond to groundwater mixing zones where NO ₃ ^? is delivered to subsurface layers that support denitrification fueled by dissolved (e.g. DOC or dissolved Fe(II)) and/or solid-phase (e.g. particulate organic carbon, solid-associated Fe(II), or pyrite) electron donors.