Seasonal precipitation reconstruction and teleconnections with ENSO based on tree ring analysis of Pinus cooperi

Tendencies of climatic variability indicate that northern Mexico will soon suffer from severe drought. Modeling the influence of climate and ecological processes would help researchers better understand the future implication of climatic variations. Here, we reconstructed historical seasonal precipitation using dendrochronological indices of Pinus cooperi and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO). Correlation analysis was conducted to establish the precipitation response period; then a reconstruction model using independent variables was constructed using regression procedures. Available data were calibrated and verified to strengthen and validate the modeled reconstruction. Precipitation from the previous winter was best correlated with tree growth. Regression procedures showed that the residual chronology associated in a linear model with El Niño 3.4 explained 47 % of seasonal precipitation variability. This study contributes to a better understanding of historical variations in precipitation and the influence of ENSO in common tree species of northern Mexico to help land managers improve local forest management in a climate change scenario.     

Hydrogeochemistry and isotope techniques to determine water interactions in groundwater-dependent shallow lakes,Wet Pampa Plain,Argentina

This paper gives an account of the implementation of hydrochemical and isotopic techniques to identify and explain the processes that govern solute exchange in two groundwater-dependent shallow lakes in the Southeastern Pampa Plain of Argentina. Water samples (lakes, streams, spring water and groundwater) for hydrochemical and stable isotopic determination were collected and the main physical–chemical parameters were measured. The combination of stable isotope data with hydrogeochemical techniques was used for the identification of sources and preferential recharge areas to these aquatic ecosystems which allowed the explanation of the lake water origin. The hydrochemical processes which explain Los Padres Lake water chemistry are evaporation from groundwater, CO₂ input, calcite dissolution, Na⁺ release by Ca²⁺ and Mg²⁺ exchange, and sulfate reduction. The model that best aligns with La Brava Lake hydrochemical constraints includes: mixing, CO₂ and calcite dissolution, cationic exchange with Na⁺ release and Mg²⁺ adsorption, and to a lesser extent, Ca/Na exchange. This model suggests that the fractured aquifer contribution to this water body is greater than 50 %. An isotopic-specific fingerprint for each lake was identified, finding a higher evaporation rate for La Brava Lake compared to Los Padres Lake. Isotopic data demonstrate the importance of these shallow lakes as recharge areas to the regional aquifer, becoming areas of high groundwater vulnerability. The Tandilia Range System, considered in many hydrogeological studies as the impermeable bedrock of the Pampean aquifer, acts as a fissured aquifer in this area, contributing to low salinity waters and with a fingerprint similar to groundwater isotopic composition.     

Steerable wavelet analysis of CMB structures alignment

This paper reviews the application of a novel methodology for analysing the isotropy of the universe by probing the alignment of local structures in the CMB. The strength of the proposed methodology relies on the steerable wavelet filtering of the CMB signal. One the one hand, the filter steerability renders the computation of the local orientation of the CMB features affordable in terms of computation time. On the other hand, the scale-space nature of the wavelet filtering allows to explore the alignment of the local structures at different scales, probing possible different phenomena. We present the WMAP first-year data analysis recently performed by the same authors (Wiaux et al.), where an extremely significant anisotropy was found. In particular, a preferred plane was detected, having a normal direction with a northern end position at (θ, ) = (34°, 331°), close to the northern end of the CMB dipole axis. In addition, a most preferred direction was found in that plane, with a northern end direction at (θ, ) = (71°, 91°), very close to the north ecliptic pole. This result synthesised for the first time previously reported anomalies identified in the direction of the dipole and the ecliptic poles axes. In a forthcoming paper (Vielva et al.), we have extended our analysis to the study of individual frequency maps finding first indications for discarding foregrounds as the origin of the anomaly. We have also tested that the preferred orientations are defined by structures homogeneously distributed in the sky, rather than from localised regions. We have also analysed the WMAP 3-year data, finding the same anomaly pattern, although at a slightly lower significance level.     

Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 1: Temperature mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

Projections for South America of future climate change conditions in mean state and seasonal cycle for temperature during the twenty-first century are discussed. Our analysis includes one simulation of seven Atmospheric-Ocean Global Circulation Models, which participated in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2, A1B, and B1. We developed a statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics to evaluate the models’ skills in simulating late twentieth century temperature over continental areas. Some criteria [model weight indices (MWIs)] are computed allowing comparing over such large regions how each model captures the temperature large scale structures and contributes to the multi-model combination. As the study demonstrates, the use of neural networks, optimized by Bayesian statistics, leads to two major results. First, the MWIs can be interpreted as optimal weights for a linear combination of the climate models. Second, the comparison between the neural network projection of twenty-first century conditions and a linear combination of such conditions allows the identification of the regions, which will most probably change, according to model biases and model ensemble variance. Model simulations in the southern tip of South America and along the Chilean and Peruvian coasts or in the northern coasts of South America (Venezuela, Guiana) are particularly poor. Overall, our results present an upper bound of potential temperature warming for each scenario. Spatially, in SRES A2, our major findings are that Tropical South America could warm up by about 4°C, while southern South America (SSA) would also undergo a near 2–3°C average warming. Interestingly, this annual mean temperature trend is modulated by the seasonal cycle in a contrasted way according to the regions. In SSA, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle tends to increase, while in northern South America, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle would be reduced leading to much milder winters. We show that all the scenarios have similar patterns and only differ in amplitude. SRES A1B differ from SRES A2 mainly for the late twenty-first century, reaching more or less an 80–90% amplitude compared to SRES A2. SRES B1, however, diverges from the other scenarios as soon as 2025. For the late twenty-first century, SRES B1 displays amplitudes, which are about half those of SRES A2.     

Heavy Metal Accumulation in the Lichen Evernia prunastri Transplanted at Urban, Rural and Industrial Sites in Central Italy

The lichen Evernia prunastri has been employed for biomonitoring the atmospheric deposition of heavy metals at urban, rural and industrial sites in Central Italy. Lichen samples have been collected in a control site 1500 m a. s. l. (Parco Nazionale dAbruzzo, Central Italy) and subsequently transplanted at urban site (Cassino city center), at rural location 7 km away from Cassino (S. Elia Fiumerapido) and at industrial location (Piedimonte S. Germano) surrounding an automobile factory. Once defined the surface of impact relevant to this work, the lichen samples were transplanted at the four cardinal points of each site. Studies of bioaccumulation of Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu and Zn in lichen samples were performed five times at regular intervals between November 2000–December 2001. Microwave digestion of the samples and graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry were employed for the heavy metal determinations. Suitable certified reference materials (CRM) were used for validation of the analytical methodology. Results showed the ability of Evernia prunastri to accumulate the heavy metals under study. As expected, the area chosen as control site showed significantly (Friedman test, cluster analysis) lower impact in comparison to the other sites and the rural site showed smaller impact than the urban and the industrial sites.     

Palaeoenvironmental reconstruction of a middle Miocene alluvial fan to cyclic shallow lacustrine depositional system in the Calatayud Basin (NE Spain)

ABSTRACT The middle Miocene sedimentary fill of the Calatayud Basin in north‐eastern Spain consists of proximal to distal alluvial fan‐floodplain and shallow lacustrine deposits. Four main facies groups characteristic of different sedimentary environments are recognized: (1) proximal and medial alluvial fan facies that comprise clast‐supported gravel and subordinate sandstone and mudstone, the latter exhibiting incipient pedogenic features; (2) distal alluvial fan facies, formed mainly of massive mudstone, carbonate‐rich palaeosols and local carbonate pond deposits; (3) lake margin facies, which show two distinct lithofacies associations depending on their distribution relative to the alluvial fan system, i.e. front (lithofacies A), comprising massive siliciclastic mudstone and tabular carbonates, or lateral (lithofacies B) showing laminated and/or massive siliciclastic mudstone alternating with tabular and/or laminated carbonate beds; and (4) mudflat–shallow lake facies showing a remarkable cyclical alternation of green‐grey and/or red siliciclastic mudstone units and white dolomitic carbonate beds. The cyclic mudflat–shallow lake succession, as exposed in the Orera composite section (OCS), is dominantly composed of small‐scale mudstone–carbonate/dolomite cycles. The mudstone intervals of the sedimentary cycles are interpreted as a result of sedimentation from suspension by distal sheet floods, the deposits evolving either under subaerial exposure or water‐saturated conditions, depending on their location on the lacustrine mudflat and on climate. The dolomite intervals accumulated during lake‐level highstands with Mg‐rich waters becoming increasingly concentrated. Lowstand to highstand lake‐level changes indicated by the mudstone/dolomite units of the small‐scale cycles reflect a climate control (from dry to wet conditions) on the sedimentation in the area. The spatial distribution of the different lithofacies implies that deposition of the small‐scale cycles took place in a low‐gradient, shallow lake basin located in an interfan zone. The development of the basin was constrained by gradual alluvial fan aggradation. Additional support for the palaeoenvironmental interpretation is derived from the isotopic compositions of carbonates from the various lithofacies that show a wide range of δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values varying from ?7·9 to 3·0‰ PDB and from ?9·2 to ?1·7‰ PDB respectively. More negative δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C values are from carbonate‐rich palaeosols and lake‐margin carbonates, which extended in front of the alluvial fan systems, whereas more positive values correspond to dolomite beds deposited in the shallow lacustrine environment. The results show a clear trend of δ¹⁸O enrichment in the carbonates from lake margin to the centre of the shallow lake basin, thereby also demonstrating that the lake evolved under hydrologically closed conditions.     

Paleoshoreline reconstruction: A proposed method to approach submerged prehistoric landscapes of Espiritu Santo Island,Baja California Sur,Mexico

When the first Americans inhabited the area now known as Isla Espiritu Santo, around 12.5 and 6 ka, the sea level continuously rose. This resulted in the loss of the coastal territory and the retreat of the human population further inland. Part of the archaeological evidence of this period currently lies over the seafloor and under the seabed. Therefore, reconstructing paleoshorelines is a necessary first step toward submerged precontact archaeology and a broad understanding of the spatial context in which those human populations interacted and how the landscapes changed. Isla Espiritu Santo is of prehistoric importance as it contains numerous Paleocoastal tradition sites as early as ~12,400 Cal B.P. This research aims to reconstruct the changing shoreline positions as sea levels rose around Isla Espiritu Santo between 12.5 and 6.5 ka. We apply numerical modeling to map digital elevation models at 1 ka intervals by estimating the changes in the morphology of the seafloor according to the deposition rates and global sea-level curve. The results show the evolution of coastal morphology and paleoshoreline's position. Three primary geoforms are proposed: (1) coastal plains, (2) tombolo, and (3) a coastal lagoon–island barrier system. This also offers insights into the physical aspect of submerged prehistoric landscapes and the possible resource exploitation options of early societies. In this research, the reconstruction of submerged landscapes seeks to contribute to the long-term goal of locating submerged precontact sites.