Generalized Bootstrap Method for Assessment of?Uncertainty in Semivariogram Inference

The semivariogram and its related function, the covariance, play a central role in classical geostatistics for modeling the average continuity of spatially correlated attributes. Whereas all methods are formulated in terms of the true semivariogram, in practice what can be used are estimated semivariograms and models based on samples. A generalized form of the bootstrap method to properly model spatially correlated data is used to advance knowledge about the reliability of empirical semivariograms and semivariogram models based on a single sample. Among several methods available to generate spatially correlated resamples, we selected a method based on the LU decomposition and used several examples to illustrate the approach. The first one is a synthetic, isotropic, exhaustive sample following a normal distribution, the second example is also a synthetic but following a non-Gaussian random field, and a third empirical sample consists of actual raingauge measurements. Results show wider confidence intervals than those found previously by others with inadequate application of the bootstrap. Also, even for the Gaussian example, distributions for estimated semivariogram values and model parameters are positively skewed. In this sense, bootstrap percentile confidence intervals, which are not centered around the empirical semivariogram and do not require distributional assumptions for its construction, provide an achieved coverage similar to the nominal coverage. The latter cannot be achieved by symmetrical confidence intervals based on the standard error, regardless if the standard error is estimated from a parametric equation or from bootstrap.     

Tilted Bianchi Type I stiff fluid magnetized cosmological model in general relativity

Tilted Bianchi Type I cosmological model for perfect fluid distribution in presence of magnetic field, is investigated. To get a determinate solution, it has been assumed that the universe is filled with stiff perfect fluid distribution together with A=(BC) ⁿ where A,B,C are metric potentials and n is a constant. The behaviour of the model in presence and absence of magnetic field is discussed. The various physical and geometrical aspects of the model, is also discussed. It has been shown that tilted nature of the Bianchi Type I model is preserved due to magnetic field. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The mobility of U and Th in subduction zone fluids: an indicator of oxygen fugacity and fluid salinity

The solubility of U and Th in aqueous solutions at P-T-conditions relevant for subduction zones was studied by trapping uraninite or thorite saturated fluids as synthetic fluid inclusions in quartz and analyzing their composition by Laser Ablation-ICPMS. Uranium is virtually insoluble in aqueous fluids at Fe-FeO buffer conditions, whereas its solubility increases both with oxygen fugacity and with salinity to 960 ppm at 26.1 kbar, Re-ReO₂ buffer conditions and 14.1 wt% NaCl in the fluid. At 26.1 kbar and 800°C, uranium solubility can be reproduced by the equation: log\textU = 2.681 + 0.1433logf\textO₂ + 0.594\textCl, \log {\text{U}} = 2.681 + 0.1433\log f{\text{O}}_{2} + 0.594{\text{Cl,}} where fO₂ is the oxygen fugacity, and Cl is the chlorine content of the fluid in molality. In contrast, Th solubility is generally low (<10 ppm) and independent of oxygen fugacity or fluid salinity. The solubility of U and Th in clinopyroxene in equilibrium with uraninite and thorite was found to be in the order of 10 ppm. Calculated fluid/cpx partition coefficients of Th are close to unity for all conditions. In contrast, D^fluid/cpx for uranium increases strongly both with oxygen fugacity and with salinity. We show that reducing or NaCl-free fluids cannot produce primitive arc magmas with U/Th ratio higher than MORB. However, the dissolution of several wt% of oxidized, saline fluids in arc melts can produce U/Th ratios several times higher than in MORB. We suggest that observed U/Th ratios in arc magmas provide tight constraints on both the salinity and the oxidation state of subduction zone fluids.     

Moment tensor inversion of nine events in Iran using INSN data

In this research, moment tensor (MT) inversion procedure in frequency domain is applied to nine events in order to evaluate the data efficiencies in computing source parameters of earthquakes in Iran. The events are recorded by Iranian National Seismological Network (INSN) stations, currently comprising 22 broadband stations. For the purpose of this study, first, the inversion procedure is applied to obtain source parameters. Then, the results obtained here are compared with those of Harvard global centroid moment tensors (GCMT) in order to estimate their reliabilities. The results show reasonable consistencies with those of Harvard GCMT within 0.075 uncertainties in logarithmic scalar moment or 0.05 in moment magnitude and 20° in Kagan angle for focal angles. Furthermore, according to the present research, the calculated source parameters are not significantly sensitive to the azimuthal gap.     

Competitive effects of fish in structurally simple habitats: perch,invertebrates, and goldeneye in small boreal lakes

We determined the associations between Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis, invertebrates, and common goldeneye Bucephala clangula in boreal lakes. Our aim was to test the hypothesis that perch play a controlling role in small, oligotrophic, acidic, and poorly vegetated boreal lakes, affecting both invertebrate numbers and community structure. In addition, we predicted that perch impact lake usage by goldeneye. In the observational part of our study, we first explored the association between perch, invertebrates and goldeneye (pairs and broods per shore km) in 18 boreal, poorly vegetated lakes. Perch densities were associated negatively with invertebrate abundance and lake usage by goldeneye broods. In the experimental part in three fish-free lakes, we found that upon successful perch introductions, the number and biomass of invertebrates, the proportion of large dytiscids, and lake usage by goldeneye broods significantly decreased. We conclude that perch apparently plays a key role as a predator of invertebrates in boreal lakes with few aquatic macrophytes. It is evident that perch can strongly affect their prey populations and communities, and this predation may have an indirect effect on species, e.g. goldeneye, that consume the same prey.     

Understanding data noise in gravity field recovery on the basis of inter-satellite ranging measurements acquired by the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE

Spectral analysis of data noise is performed in the context of gravity field recovery from inter-satellite ranging measurements acquired by the satellite gravimetry mission GRACE. The motivation of the study is two-fold: (i) to promote a further improvement of GRACE data processing techniques and (ii) to assist designing GRACE follow-on missions. The analyzed noise realizations are produced as the difference between the actual GRACE inter-satellite range measurements and the predictions based on state-of-the-art force models. The exploited functional model is based on the so-called “range combinations,” which can be understood as a finite-difference analog of inter-satellite accelerations projected onto the line-of-sight connecting the satellites. It is shown that low-frequency noise is caused by limited accuracy of the computed GRACE orbits. In the first instance, it leads to an inaccurate estimation of the radial component of the inter-satellite velocities. A large impact of this component stems from the fact that it is directly related to centrifugal accelerations, which have to be taken into account when the measured range-accelerations are linked with inter-satellite accelerations. Another effect of orbit inaccuracies is a miscalculation of forces acting on the satellites (particularly, the one described by the zero-degree term of the Earth’s gravitational field). The major contributors to the noise budget at high frequencies (above 9?mHz) are (i) ranging sensor errors and (ii) limited knowledge of the Earth’s static gravity field at high degrees. Importantly, we show that updating the model of the static field on the basis of the available data must be performed with a caution as the result may not be physical due to a non-unique recovery of high-degree coefficients. The source of noise in the range of intermediate frequencies (1–9?mHz), which is particularly critical for an accurate gravity field recovery, is not fully understood yet. We show, however, that it cannot be explained by inaccuracies in background models of time-varying gravity field. It is stressed that most of the obtained results can be treated as sufficiently general (i.e., applicable in the context of a statistically optimal estimation based on any functional model).     

Responses of diatoms to the Younger Dryas climatic reversal in a South Carpathian mountain lake (Romania)

A high-resolution paleolimnological study from Lake Brazi, a small mountain lake in the Southern Carpathian Mountains, Romania, shows distinct diatom responses to late glacial and early Holocene climate change between ca. 15,750 and 10,000?cal?year BP. Loss-on-ignition, titanium, sulphur, phosphorus, biogenic silica content, and diatom assemblage composition were used as proxies for past environmental changes. Total epilimnetic phosphorus (TP) concentrations and lakewater pH were reconstructed quantitatively using diatom-TP and pH transfer functions. The most remarkable changes in the aquatic ecosystem were found at ca. 12,870 and 10,400?cal?year BP. Whereas the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) climatic reversal was conspicuous in our record, the beginning of the Holocene was not well marked. Two diatom assemblage zones characterize the YD in Lake Brazi, suggesting a bipartite division of this climatic oscillation. The diatom responses to the YD cooling were (1) a shift from Staurosira venter to Stauroforma exiguiformis dominance; (2) a decrease in overall diatom diversity; (3) a decrease in lake productivity, inferred from DI-TP, organic matter, and biogenic silica content; and (4) a lowering of the DI-pH. Compositional change of the diatom assemblages suggested a sudden shift towards more acidic lake conditions at 12,870?cal?year BP, which is interpreted as a response to prolonged ice cover and thus shorter growing seasons and/or enhanced outwash of humic acids from the catchment. Taking into account the chironomid-based inference of only moderate July mean temperature decrease (<1?°C), together with the pollen-inferred regional opening of the forest cover and expansion of steppe-tundra, our data suggest that ecosystem changes in the Southern Carpathians during the YD were likely determined by strong seasonal changes.     

Systematic paleontology,biostratigraphy, paleobiogeography of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Loftusia</Emphasis> (foraminifera) and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Rudist</Emphasis> assemblages in a regressive sequence in the Hekimhan-Malatya area (Eastern Anatolia) Turkey

The Maastrichtian regressive sequence of the Hekimhan-Malatya area in Eastern Turkey consists of dolomitic limestones, limestones and calcareous mudstones which are dominated by rudists and Loftusia (foraminifera) assemblages. Several Loftusia species indicating middle to late Maastrichtian age such as Loftusia anatolica Meriç, L. baykali Meriç, L. coxi Henson, L. harrisoni Cox, L. minor Cox and L. morgani Douvillé have been recorded. Other benthic foraminifers present include Orbitoides medius d’ Archiac, Omphalocyclus macroporus (Lamarck), Laffitteina conica Drooger, Laffitteina mengaudi (Astre) and Laffitteina oeztuerki Inan. The rudists are abundant in the dolomitic limestones in the study area. The genus Miseia Patrulius is dominant and represented by Miseia bilacunosa Özer and Miseia hekimhanensis Karacabey-Öztemür. The Loftusia species and the Rudists assemblage indicates middle to late Maastrichtian age for the formation. The paleobiogeographic distribution of the assemblage has been discussed taking this find into account.