An approach for estimating sustainable yield of karst water in data sparse regions

This study presents an approach for transferring the qualitative analysis of groundwater sustainability for development to quantitative evaluation by an analogy of two similar regions. A concept of groundwater exploitation sustainability (GES), which is an evaluation index based on water supply capability, eco-geo-environment maintaining capability and the harmony between water and society, is put forward. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process method is applied to calculate the GES for the Xiangshan and Dianchang karst groundwater sources in the Huaibei city, Anhui Province, China. The GES of the Xiangshan karst system was calculated to be 0.53 and represents medium exploitation sustainability, while that for the Dianchang is relatively high with a value of 0.70. These two karst systems are separate units but have similar hydrogeological conditions. The Dianchang area had limited groundwater observation data, while the Xiangshan area had long series of observation data, which enabled the computation of the sustainable yield. The sustainable yield of the Xiangshan karst area was used to calibrate the GES, and develop a linear equation between the GES and sustainable yield, which was used to calculate the sustainable yield of the Diangchang karst area as 40.4 million m³.     

Experimental growth of åkermanite reaction rims between wollastonite and monticellite: evidence for volume diffusion control

Growth rates of monomineralic, polycrystalline åkermanite (Ca₂MgSi₂O₇) rims produced by solid-state reactions between monticellite (CaMgSiO₄) and wollastonite (CaSiO₃) single crystals were determined at 0.5 GPa dry argon pressure, 1,000–1,200°C and 5 min to 60 h, using an internally heated pressure vessel. Inert Pt-markers, initially placed at the monticellite–wollastonite interface, indicate symmetrical growth into both directions. This and mass balance considerations demonstrate that rim growth is controlled by transport of MgO. At 1,200°C and run durations between 5 min and 60 h, rim growth follows a parabolic rate law with rim widths ranging from 0.4 to 16.3 μm indicating diffusion-controlled rim growth. The effective bulk diffusion coefficient \( D_{\text{eff,MgO}}^{\text{Ak}} \) is calculated to 10^?15.8±0.1 m² s^?1. Between 1,000°C and 1,200°C, the effective bulk diffusion coefficient follows an Arrhenius law with E _a = 204 ± 18 kJ/mol and D ₀ = 10^?8.6±1.6 m² s^?1. Åkermanite grains display a palisade texture with elongation perpendicular to the reaction interface. At 1,200°C, average grain widths measured normal to elongation, increase with the square root of time and range from 0.4 to 5.4 μm leading to a successive decrease in the grain boundary area fraction, which, however, does not affect \( D_{\text{eff,MgO}}^{\text{Ak}} \) to a detectible extent. This implies that grain boundary diffusion only accounts for a minor fraction of the overall chemical mass transfer, and rim growth is essentially controlled by volume diffusion. This is corroborated by the agreement between our estimates of the effective MgO bulk diffusion coefficient and experimentally determined volume diffusion data for Mg and O in åkermanite from the literature. There is sharp contrast to the MgO–SiO₂ binary system, where grain boundary diffusion controls rim growth.     

Numerical simulation of percussive drilling

This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The meteorological framework and the cultural memory of three severe winter-storms in early eighteenth-century Europe

Three violent eighteenth-century storms that ravaged the North Sea area (1703), western central Europe (1739) and Portugal (1739) are investigated from the point of view of their meteorological setting, their socio-economic impact, and whether and by what means they secured an enduring place in the cultural memory. The evidence draws on individual narrative sources such as chronicles and poems, and institutional sources such as ship’s logbooks and state-organised ‘windthrow’ inventories of tree loss. Each of the three storms had socio-economic impacts that could be described as ‘war-like’ in the damage caused to buildings and the destruction of forests. The “Great Storm” of December 1703 jeopardized English naval supremacy in the War of the Spanish Succession by sinking a number of Royal Navy ships and taking the life of more than 8000 seamen. In January 1739 two similarly destructive storms swept over mainland Europe. The cultural memory of the three events here considered was however strikingly different. The sequence of storms in January 1739 though being the most protracted of the last centuries, and well-chroniceled, did not persist in the collective memories of those in France, Switzerland and elsewhere who experienced them. Likewise, the “Great Storm” was quickly forgotten on the continent, whereas its memory remained deeply rooted in England through the writings of Defoe (1704). In Portugal the 1739 storm won a lasting place in the country’s cultural memory owing to two poems that it inspired. Furthermore, it was recorded in the Kingdom’s official newspaper, in the astronomical prognoses and in written records of the Old Regime’s cultural elite.     

Earthquake detection probability within a seismically quiet area: application to the Bruchsal geothermal field

In applications such as oil and gas production, deep geothermal energy production, underground storage, and mining, it is common practice to implement local seismic networks to monitor and to mitigate induced seismicity. For this purpose, it is crucial to determine the capability of the network to detect a seismic event of predefined magnitude in the target area. The determination of the magnitude of completeness of a network is particularly required to properly interpret seismic monitoring results. We propose a method to compute the detection probability for existing local seismic networks, which (i) strictly follows the applied detection sequence; (ii) estimates the detection capability where seismicity has not yet occurred; and (iii) delivers the results in terms of probabilities. The procedure includes a calibration of a local magnitude scale using regional earthquakes recorded by the network and located outside the monitored area. It involves pre‐processing of the seismograms recorded at each station as performed during the triggering sequence, which is assumed based on amplitude thresholds. Then, the calibrated magnitude–distance–amplitude relations are extrapolated at short distances and combined to reproduce the network detection sequence. This generates a probability to detect a seismic event of a given magnitude at a specified location. This observation‐based approach is an alternative to a fully theoretical detection capability modelling and includes field conditions. Seismic wave attenuation by geometrical spreading and intrinsic attenuation, site effect, and instrumental responses are partly accounted for by the calibration. We apply this procedure on the seismic network deployed in the Bruchsal geothermal field (Germany). Although the system was in good working order, no induced seismicity was identified in the area between June 2010, when monitoring started, and November 2012. The recording of distant seismicity during this time period, however, allowed the application of the proposed procedure. According to the applied network detection parameters, the results indicate that the absence of seismicity can be interpreted as a 95% probability that no seismic event with M_L ≥ 0.7 occurred below the network at 2.4‐km depth, i.e., in the geothermal reservoir.     

Water‐bottom multiple attenuation by Kirchhoff extrapolation

Despite being less general than 3D surface‐related multiple elimination (3D‐SRME), multiple prediction based on wavefield extrapolation can still be of interest, because it is less CPU and I/O demanding than 3D‐SRME and moreover it does not require any prior data regularization. Here we propose a fast implementation of water‐bottom multiple prediction that uses the Kirchhoff formulation of wavefield extrapolation. With wavefield extrapolation multiple prediction is usually obtained through the cascade of two extrapolation steps. Actually by applying the Fermat’s principle (i.e., minimum reflection traveltime) we show that the cascade of two operators can be replaced by a single approximated extrapolation step. The approximation holds as long as the water bottom is not too complex. Indeed the proposed approach has proved to work well on synthetic and field data when the water bottom is such that wavefront triplications are negligible, as happens in many practical situations.     

An investigation of the SO2 content of the venusian mesosphere using SPICAV-UV in nadir mode

Using the SPICAV-UV spectrometer aboard Venus Express in nadir mode, we were able to derive spectral radiance factors in the middle atmosphere of Venus in the 170-320 nm range at a spectral resolution of R ? 200 during 2006 and 2007 in the northern hemisphere. By comparison with a radiative transfer model of the upper atmosphere of Venus, we could derive column abundance above the visible cloud top for SO₂ using its spectral absorption bands near 280 and 220 nm. SO₂ column densities show large temporal and spatial variations on a horizontal scale of a few hundred kilometers. Typical SO₂ column densities at low latitudes (up to 50°N) were found between 5 and 50 μm-atm, whereas in the northern polar region SO₂ content was usually below 5 μm-atm. The observed latitudinal variations follow closely the cloud top altitude derived by SPICAV-IR and are thought to be of dynamical origin. Also, a sudden increase of SO₂ column density in the whole northern hemisphere has been observed in early 2007, possibly related to a convective episode advecting some deep SO₂ into the upper atmosphere.     

Behaviour of REE and mass balance calculations in a lateritic profile over chlorite schists in South Cameroon

An in situ weathering profile overlying chlorite schists in the Mbalmayo-Bengbis formations (South Cameroon) was chosen for the study of the behaviour of REE and the evaluation of geochemical mass balance. After physical and mineralogical studies, the chlorite schists and the undisturbed weathered materials were chemically analyzed for major elements (X-ray fluorescence and titrimetry) and REE (ICP-MS). The behaviour of the REE in the Mbalmayo weathering system was established in comparison with the REE of the reference parent rock. Mass balance calculations were applied to both major elements and REE. The mineralogy of the materials was determined with the aid of a Philips 1720, diffractometer. The chlorite schists of the Mbalmayo sector show low REE contents (Σ=153.44 ppm). These rocks are relatively rich in LREE (about 125 times the chondritic value) and relatively poor in HREE (about 20 times the chondritic value). The REE diagram normalized to chondrites shows a slightly split graph ((La/Yb)_N=6.18) with marked enrichment in LREE (LREE/HREE=9.50) in relation to HREE. Moreover, these spectra do not present any Ce anomaly, but a slightly positive Eu anomaly. The imperfectly evolved profile, whose materials are genetically linked, shows an atypical behaviour of REE. In effect, the LREE are more mobile than the HREE during weathering ((La/Yb)NASC<1) with weak Ce anomalies. This has been rarely reported in lateritic profiles characterized by higher HREE mobility than LREE during weathering processes with high Ce anomalies. This is either due to the difference in the stability of REE-bearing minerals, or to the weak acidic to basic pH conditions (6.70<pH<7.80), or even due to the average evolution of the weathering materials. The pathway of the REE along the profile is as follows: (1) leaching in the saprolites and summit of the profile, except for Ce, which precipitates very weakly in the nodular materials and the coarse saprolite materials, (2) at the base of the profile, solutions come in contact with chlorite schist formations, at this level, the pH increases (pH=7.79), HREE and a part of LREE partially void of Ce precipitate and (3) the other part of LREE precipitates further up in the profile. The geochemical mass balance calculations reveal that these elements are leached in the same phases as the relatively high Si, Al, K and Fe²⁺ contents.     

Disaster risk reduction legislations: Is there a move from events to processes?

Disaster research and scholarship is now advocating a shift from focusing on the hazard event to processes that generate vulnerability and loss of resilience to disasters. Disaster legislations are among prominent instruments that can highlight the tensions as well as challenges that are being encountered towards this change in focus. Using textual analysis, this paper presents a study that investigated whether five post-2002 disaster legislations have shifted emphasis from the hazard to the vulnerability and resilience paradigms. The five examples illustrate that while there is a slight change, at least in rhetoric, from response to a prevention focus, disaster legislations largely promote a centralised institutional framework, with inadequate resource commitments and limited participation from vulnerable communities. Consequently, while generalisations simply cannot be made without a wider analysis of many more examples from different countries, the five disaster legislations appear to re-emphasise the response focus with less attention on the processes that reduce vulnerability and enhance resilience. The conclusion is that while the rhetoric has changed, the disaster legislations have not significantly moved from the hazard to vulnerability and resilience focus suggesting that reduction of losses and damages to disasters remains a big challenge     

From Predictive Mapping of Mineral Prospectivity to Quantitative Estimation of Number of Undiscovered Prospects

This paper proposes that the spatial pattern of known prospects of the deposit‐type sought is the key to link predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity (PMMP) and quantitative mineral resource assessment (QMRA). This proposition is demonstrated by PMMP for hydrothermal Au‐Cu deposits (HACD) and by estimating the number of undiscovered prospects for HACD in Catanduanes Island (Philippines). The results of analyses of the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD and their spatial associations with geological features are consistent with existing knowledge of geological controls on hydrothermal Au‐Cu mineralization in the island and elsewhere, and are used to define spatial recognition criteria of regional‐scale prospectivity for HACD. Integration of layers of evidence representing the spatial recognition criteria of prospectivity via application of data‐driven evidential belief functions results in a map of prospective areas occupying 20% of the island with fitting‐ and prediction‐rates of 76% and 70%, respectively. The predictive map of prospective areas and a proxy measure for degrees of exploration based on the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD were used in one‐level prediction of undiscovered mineral endowment, which yielded estimates of 79 to 112 undiscovered prospects of HACD. Application of radial‐density fractal analysis of the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD results in an estimate of 113 undiscovered prospects of HACD. Thus, the results of the study support the proposition that PMMP can be a part of QMRA if the spatial pattern of discovered prospects of the deposit‐type sought is considered in both PMMP and QMRA.