Évolution de l'onde semi-diurne M2 de la marée à Brest de 1846 à 2005

The work of searching, recovering and quality control of ancient sea-level measurements at Brest is presented. This work enables us to complete a study carried out by Cartwright in 1972, which showed a decrease in the tidal M2 semi-diurnal amplitude of 1% per century. After including these ancient data, as well as the last four decades of observations in the analysis, our results show an increase of the amplitude of M2 after 1960 and a decrease before 1880, suggesting a long-period oscillation rather than a steady secular trend. To cite this article: N. Pouvreau et al., C. R. Geoscience 338 (2006).     

Climate variability in the Spanish Pyrenees during the last 30,000 yr revealed by the El Portalet sequence

Palynological, sedimentological and stable isotopic analyses of carbonates and organic matter performed on the El Portalet sequence (1802 m a.s.l., 42°48′00?N, 0°23′52?W) reflect the paleoclimatic evolution and vegetation history in the central-western Spanish Pyrenees over the last 30,000 yr, and provide a high-resolution record for the late glacial period. Our results confirm previous observations that deglaciation occurred earlier in the Pyrenees than in northern European and Alpine sites and point to a glacial readvance from 22,500 to 18,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with the global last glacial maximum. The patterns shown by the new, high-resolution pollen data from this continental sequence, chronologically constrained by 13 AMS ¹⁴C dates, seem to correlate with the rapid climate changes recorded in Greenland ice cores during the last glacial-interglacial transition. Abrupt events observed in northern latitudes (Heinrich events 3 to 1, Oldest and Older Dryas stades, Intra-Allerød Cold Period, and 8200 cal yr BP event) were also identified for the first time in a lacustrine sequence from the central-western Pyrenees as cold and arid periods. The coherent response of the vegetation and the lake system to abrupt climate changes implies an efficient translation of climate variability from the North Atlantic to mid latitudes.     

Optimization of nonconventional wells under uncertainty using statistical proxies

The determination of the optimal type and placement of a nonconventional well in a heterogeneous reservoir represents a challenging optimization problem. This determination is significantly more complicated if uncertainty in the reservoir geology is included in the optimization. In this study, a genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the deployment of nonconventional wells. Geological uncertainty is accounted for by optimizing over multiple reservoir models (realizations) subject to a prescribed risk attitude. To reduce the excessive computational requirements of the base method, a new statistical proxy (which provides fast estimates of the objective function) based on cluster analysis is introduced into the optimization process. This proxy provides an estimate of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the scenario performance, which enables the quantification of proxy uncertainty. Knowledge of the proxy-based performance estimate in conjunction with the proxy CDF enables the systematic selection of the most appropriate scenarios for full simulation. Application of the overall method for the optimization of monobore and dual-lateral well placement demonstrates the performance of the hybrid optimization procedure. Specifically, it is shown that by simulating only 10% or 20% of the scenarios (as determined by application of the proxy), optimization results very close to those achieved by simulating all cases are obtained.     

Study of geothermal water intrusion due to groundwater exploitation in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico

Significant intrusion of geothermal water into fresh groundwater takes place in the Puebla Valley aquifer system, Mexico. The decline in the potentiometric surface due to the overexploitation of the groundwater induces this intrusion. This hydrological system comprises three aquifers located in Plio-Quaternary volcanic sediments and Mesozoic calcareous rocks. The hydraulic balance of the aquifer shows that the annual output exceeds the natural inputs by 12 million m³. Between 1973 and 2002, a drop in the potentiometric surface, with an 80 m cone of depression, was identified in a 5-km-wide area located southwest of the city of Puebla. Chemical analyses performed on water samples since 1990 have shown an increase in total dissolved solids (TDS) of more than 500 mg/L, coinciding with the region showing a cone of depression in the potentiometric surface. A three-dimensional flow and transport model, based on the hydrogeological and geophysical studies, was computed by using the MODFLOW and MT3D software. This model reproduces the evolution of the aquifer system during the last 30 years and predicts for 2010 an additional drawdown in the potentiometric surface of 15 m, and an increase in the geothermal water intrusion.     

T -distributed Random Fields: A Parametric Model for Heavy-tailedWell-log Data1

Histograms of observations from spatial phenomena are often found to be more heavy-tailed than Gaussian distributions, which makes the Gaussian random field model unsuited. A T-distributed random field model with heavy-tailed marginal probability density functions is defined. The model is a generalization of the familiar Student-T distribution, and it may be given a Bayesian interpretation. The increased variability appears cross-realizations, contrary to in-realizations, since all realizations are Gaussian-like with varying variance between realizations. The T-distributed random field model is analytically tractable and the conditional model is developed, which provides algorithms for conditional simulation and prediction, so-called T-kriging. The model compares favourably with most previously defined random field models. The Gaussian random field model appears as a special, limiting case of the T-distributed random field model. The model is particularly useful whenever multiple, sparsely sampled realizations of the random field are available, and is clearly favourable to the Gaussian model in this case. The properties of the T-distributed random field model is demonstrated on well log observations from the Gullfaks field in the North Sea. The predictions correspond to traditional kriging predictions, while the associated prediction variances are more representative, as they are layer specific and include uncertainty caused by using variance estimates.     

Risk assessment of groundwater pollution using sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis

This paper illustrates how sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis can be useful tools in risk assessment of groundwater pollution. The approach is applied to a study area in Hungary with several known groundwater pollution sources and nearby drinking water production wells. The main concern is whether the contamination sources threaten the drinking water wells of the area. A groundwater flow and transport model is set up to answer this question. Due to limited data availability, the results of this model are associated with large uncertainty. Sensitivity analysis and a worst-case scenario analysis are applied to estimate this uncertainty and build confidence in the model results.     

Reconstructing hydrological variability from testate amoebae analysis in Carpathian peatlands

Peatlands offer the potential for high resolution records of water balance over Holocene timescales, yet this potential is under-exploited in many areas of the world. Within Europe, peatlands are mostly confined to areas north of 55° N, but several areas of southern and eastern Europe contain small peatlands which may be suitable for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. In this paper we test the potential of peatlands in the Carpathian region for deriving quantified estimates of water table changes using testate amoebae analysis. A training set for palaeohydrological reconstruction from testate amoebae assemblages was obtained by collecting surface samples from 13 peatlands, including 9 from Hungary and 4 from Transylvania (Romania). Using a simple measure of mean annual water tables estimated from staining of PVC tape, we found that some peatlands were heavily influenced by runoff and groundwater, and were therefore not suitable as modern analogues of ombrotrophic climatically sensitive sites. The relationship between the testate amoebae assemblages in the modern samples and the environmental variables was explored using CCA. The CCA biplot showed that the most important variables are depth to water table and moisture content, confirming that hydrology is a key control on taxon distribution. pH was a secondary gradient. A transfer function for % moisture and depth to water table was established and applied to fossil assemblages from a sequence from Fenyves-tető, Transylvania, Romania. The reconstructed water table shows a number of variations which have parallels with other palaeoclimatic records from Europe and the North Atlantic prominent phases of higher water tables are associated with the periods 8000–8300 cal BP, 3000–2500 cal BP and after 600 cal BP. We suggest that these were periods of particular intensification of westerly airflow which affected eastern Europe as well as western and central Europe.     

Interpretation of subhorizontal crustal reflections by metamorphic and rheologic effects in the eastern part of the Pannonian Basin

The geologic origin of subhorizontal reflections, often observed in crustal seismic sections, was investigated by establishing metamorphic facies and strength of rocks in depth, and correlating these properties to seismic reflection sections from eastern Hungary. Estimation of the depths of metamorphic mineral stability zones utilized the principles developed by Fyfe et al. and known geothermal data of the area. The strength versus depth profile was derived by relating local seismic P -wave interval velocities to Meissner et al. 's activation energy. The results show that the series of subhorizontal reflections, observed in the Pannonian Basin, are a consequence of combined metamorphic and rheologic changes in depths. The synthesis of the integrated data set suggests that the retrograde alteration of the pre-Tertiary basement above the percolation threshold was made possible by the softening effect of shear zones and their water-conducting capacity. The subhorizontal reflections of highest energy, of the consolidated crust below the percolation threshold, originate in the depths of greenschist, amphibolite and granulite metamorphic mineral facies, which were formed in geothermal and pressure conditions similar to those existing today. These results imply the overprint of earlier (Variscan) metamorphic sequences of the crust by more recent retrograde metamorphic processes.     

Diffusion-limited REE uptake by eclogite garnets and its consequences for Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd geochronology

Garnets from the Zermatt-Saas Fee eclogites contain narrow central peaks for Lu + Yb + Tm ± Er and at least one additional small peak towards the rim. The REE Sm + Eu + Gd + Tb ± Dy are depleted in the cores but show one prominent peak close to the rim. These patterns cannot be modeled using Rayleigh fractionation accompanied by mineral breakdown reactions. Instead, the patterns are well explained using a transient matrix diffusion model where REE uptake is limited by diffusion in the matrix surrounding the porphyroblast. Observed profiles are well matched if a roughly linear radius growth rate is used. The secondary peaks in the garnet profiles are interpreted to reflect thermally activated diffusion due to temperature increase during prograde metamorphism. The model predicts anomalously low ¹⁷⁶Lu/¹⁷⁷Hf and ¹⁴⁷Sm/¹⁴⁴Nd ratios in garnets where growth rates are fast compared to diffusion of the REE, and these results have important implications for Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd geochronology using garnet.