Seismic damage assessment based on regional synthetic ground motion dataset: a case study for Erzincan,Turkey

Estimation of seismic losses is a fundamental step in risk mitigation in urban regions. Structural damage patterns depend on the regional seismic properties and the local building vulnerability. In this study, a framework for seismic damage estimation is proposed where the local building fragilities are modeled based on a set of simulated ground motions in the region of interest. For this purpose, first, ground motion records are simulated for a set of scenario events using stochastic finite-fault methodology. Then, existing building stock is classified into specific building types represented with equivalent single-degree-of-freedom models. The response statistics of these models are evaluated through nonlinear time history analysis with the simulated ground motions. Fragility curves for the classified structural types are derived and discussed. The study area is Erzincan (Turkey), which is located on a pull-apart basin underlain by soft sediments in the conjunction of three active faults as right-lateral North Anatolian Fault, left-lateral North East Anatolian Fault, and left-lateral Ovacik Fault. Erzincan city center experienced devastating earthquakes in the past including the December 27, 1939 (Ms = 8.0) and the March 13, 1992 (Mw?=?6.6) events. The application of the proposed method is performed to estimate the spatial distribution of the damage after the 1992 event. The estimated results are compared against the corresponding observed damage levels yielding a reasonable match in between. After the validation exercise, a potential scenario event of Mw?=?7.0 is simulated in the study region. The corresponding damage distribution indicates a significant risk within the urban area.     

Delta formation at the southern entrance of Istanbul Strait (Marmara sea, Turkey): a new interpretation based on high-resolution seismic stratigraphy

A detailed stratigraphic investigation based on high-resolution seismic profiles revealed that the delta at the southern entrance of the Istanbul Strait consists of three parasequence sets. The lowermost parasequence shows a sea-level stillstand at the beginning of the lowstand systems tract, possibly at 11,000±1,100 a b.p., whereas the upper two parasequences reflect deposition at lowstand and during the subsequent transgression. A maximum flooding surface may be developing on the delta at present. The delta is located on the eastern side of the Istanbul Strait canyon, with east–west prograding parasequences. The development of the delta is clearly associated with the Kurbağalı Stream on the east coast, and not with the Black Sea outflow through the strait. The geometry of the delta indicates a radial architecture arranged from northeast to southwest.     

Temporal changes of soft-bottom zoobenthic communities in and around Alsancak Harbor (Izmir Bay, Aegean Sea), with special attention to the autecology of exotic species

Temporal and spatial variation in soft‐bottom benthic communities following recovery from a pollution episode were studied between January and September 2004 in and around Alsancak Harbor, located in the polluted part of Izmir Bay (Aegean Sea, eastern Mediterranean). Samples were collected at seven stations by van Veen grab. Three additional stations were sampled by means of a beam trawl to take into account large mobile animals and for a better estimate of the local biodiversity. A total of 231 species belonging to 10 zoobenthic groups were found. Polychaetes contributed 90% of the total faunal populations and mollusks 87% of the total biomass in the area. Community parameters varied significantly among stations and sampling periods; number of species ranged from 2 to 79 per 0.1 m² grab sample; density from 20 to 81,720 ind·m^?2; biomass from 0.1 to 4190 g·m^?2; Shannon–Wiener diversity index (log₂ base) from 0.4 to 4.4; and Pielou's evenness index from 0.11 to 1.0. Collections indicate that a number of species, including those sensitive to pollution, have colonized the area where azoic conditions had been previously reported. A total of six exotic species, Streblospio gynobranchiata, Polydora cornuta, Hydroides dianthus, Hydroides elegans, Anadara demiri and Fulvia fragilis, probably transferred to the area via ballast water or hull fouling, dominated soft or hard substrata in and near Alsancak Harbor. The first two species accounted for more than 70% of the total population in the area, while A. demiri contributed the most to the biomass (93%, at station 7).     

Environmental problems at the Nevşehir (Kozakli) geothermal field,central Turkey

The Kozakli–Nev?ehir geothermal field extends a long a NW–SE direction at SE of the Centrum of Kozakli. The area is not rugged and average elevation is 1,000 m. The Kozanözü Creek flows towards north of the area. In the Kozakli thermal Spa area, thermal waters are manifested along a valley with a length of 1.5 km and 200 m width. In this resort some hot waters are discharged with no use. The thermal water used in the area comes from wells drilled by MTA. In addition, these waters from wells are also utilized by hotels, baths and motels belonging to City Private Management, Municipality and private sector. The measured temperature of Kozakli waters ranges from 43–51°C in springs and 80–96°C in wells. Waters are issued in a wide swampy area as a small group of springs through buried faults. Electrical conductivity values of thermal spring and well waters are 1,650–3,595 μS/cm and pH values are 6.72–7.36. Kozakli cold water has an electrical conductivity value of 450 μS/cm and pH of 7.56. All thermal waters are dominated by Na⁺ and Cl–SO₄ while cold waters are dominated by Ca⁺² and HCO₃ ^?. The aim of this study was to investigate the environmental problems around the Kozakli geothermal field and explain the mechanisms of karstic depression which was formed by uncontrolled use of thermal waters in this area and bring up its possible environmental threats. At the Kozakli geothermal field a sinkhole with 30 m diameter and 15 m depth occurred in January, 17th 2007 at the recreation area located 20 m west of the geothermal well which belongs to the government of Nev?ehir province. The management of the geothermal wells should be controlled by a single official institution in order to avoid the creation of such karstic structures affecting the environment at the source area.     

Use of interactive multisensor snow and ice mapping system snow cover maps (IMS) and artificial neural networks for simulating river discharges in Eastern Turkey

Basins located in Eastern Turkey are largely fed by snowmelt runoff during spring and early summer seasons. This study investigates the efficiency of artificial neural networks (ANNs) in snowmelt runoff generation. Although ANNs have been used for streamflow simulating/forecasting in the last two decades, using satellite-based snow-covered area (SCA) maps and meteorological observations as inputs to ANN provides a novel basis for estimating streamflow. The proposed methodology is implemented over Upper Euphrates River Basin in Eastern Turkey. SCA data was acquired from Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) for an 8-year period from February 2004 to September 2011. Meteorological observations including daily cumulative precipitation and daily average air temperatures were obtained from Turkish State Meteorological Services. The simulation results are promising with coefficient of correlation varying from 0.67 to 0.98 among proposed models. Past days discharge was found to substantially improve the forecast accuracy. The paper presents the expected basin discharge for 2011 water year based on meteorological observations and SCA input.     

Hybrid genetic algorithms in view of the evolution theories with application for the electrical sounding method

The classical genetic algorithm is a stochastic process which operates by natural selection. Although the algorithm may localize a point around the global minimum of the misfit function, it is not efficient at finding the precise solution. This paper suggests some hybrid genetic algorithms, derived from evolution theories, to overcome this problem. Firstly, sexual selection has been incorporated in the classical genetic algorithm to obtain a full representation of the Darwinist evolution concept. The simulation of sexual selection is performed by assigning a higher probability of surviving to some parameters that satisfy some algebraic relationships. This method is called the ‘marked constraints’ algorithm since it permits us to insert geological and geophysical constraints into the problem. The algorithm implementation is realized by progressively shrinking the parameter search space through successive generations. In this way, the genetic algorithm gains some degree of determinism. Secondly, since the evolution theory of Lamarck postulates that the acquired traits are passed on to the next generation, a hybrid use of the damped least‐squares method and the genetic algorithm is called Lamarckian inversion. Lamarckian inversion involves some improvement procedures that simulate the reduction of the misfit with the help of a derivative‐based method between two generations. Finally, although there is no correspondence in nature, Lamarckian and Darwinist evolution concepts are combined to strengthen the deterministic part of the solution algorithm. This is called the Lamarckian‐marked‐constraint algorithm. The merits and behaviours of the suggested algorithms are discussed using two examples. The first is a hypothetical example affected by a multiminima problem. The second examines the equivalence problem using vertical electrical sounding data.