Multi-source spatial data-based invasion risk modeling of Striga (Striga asiatica) in Zimbabwe

ABSTRACT

Monitoring of destructive invasive weeds such as those from the genus Striga requires accurate, near real-time predictions and integrated assessment techniques to enable better surveillance and consistent assessment initiatives. Thus, in this study, we predicted the potential ecological niche of Striga (Striga asiatica) weed in Zimbabwe, to identify and understand its propagation and map potentially vulnerable cropping areas. Vegetation phenology from remote sensing, bioclimatic and other environmental variables (i.e. cropping system, edaphic, land surface temperature, and terrain) were used as predictors. Six machine learning modeling techniques and the ensemble model were evaluated on their suitability to predict current and future Striga weed distributional patterns. The mentioned predictors (n = 40) were integrated into six models with “presence-only” training and evaluation data, collected in Zimbabwe over the period between the 12^th and 28^th of March 2018. The area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) were used to measure the performance of the Striga modeling framework. The results showed that the ensemble model had the strongest Striga occurrence predictive power (AUC = 0.98; TSS = 0.93) when compared to the other modeling algorithms. Temperature seasonality (Bio4), the maximum temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were determined to be the most dominant bioclimatic variables influencing Striga occurrence. “Start of the season” and “season minimum value” of the “Enhanced Vegetation Index base value” were the most relevant remote sensing-based variables. Based on projected climate change scenarios, the study showed that up to 2050, the suitable area for Striga propagation will increase by ~ 0.73% in Zimbabwe. The present work demonstrated the importance of integrating multi-source data in predicting possible crop production restraints due to weed propagation. The results can enhance national preparedness and management strategies, specifically, if the current and future risk areas can be identified for early intervention and containment     

Melt structural control on olivine/melt element partitioning of Ca and Mn

Relationships between mineral/silicate melt partition coefficients and melt structure have been examined by combining Ca and Mn olivine/melt partitioning data with available melt structure information. Compositions were chosen so that melts with olivine on their liquidii range in degree of polymerization, NBO/T, from ∼0.5 to ∼2.5 under near isothermal conditions (1350-1400°C). Olivine/melt Ca-Mn exchange coefficients, Ca(olivine)/CaO(melt)/MnO(olivine)/MnO(melt) (K_{D Ca-Mn}^olivine/melt), as a function of melt NBO/T have a parabolic shape with a minimum K_{D Ca-Mn}^olivine/melt-value at NBO/T near 1. Notably, published K_{D Fe2⁺-Mg}^olivine/melt versus NBO/T functions are also parabolic with a maximum in K_{D Fe2⁺-Mg}^olivine/melt near 1 (Kushiro and Mysen, 2002).The olivine/melt partitioning data are modeled in terms of structural units (Qⁿ-species) in the melt. The NBO/T-value corresponding to the minimum K_{D Ca-Mn}^olivine/melt is near that where the abundance ratio of Qⁿ-species, X_Q3/X_Q2, has its largest value. Therefore, the activity coefficient ratio in the melt, γ_Ca2⁺(melt)/γ_Mn2⁺(melt), attains a minimum where the abundance ratio of X_Q3/X_Q2 is at maximum. It is inferred from this relationship that Ca²⁺ in the melts is dominantly bonded to nonbridging oxygen (Ca-NBO) in Q³-species, whereas Mn²⁺ is bonded to nonbridging oxygen (Mn-NBO) in less polymerized Qⁿ-species such as Q².     

Contemporary Refugee‐Border Dynamics and the Legacies of the 1919 Paris Peace Conference

While the geopolitical legacies of the World War I peace negotiations are widely recognized, this article examines the often overlooked connection between the WWI Paris Peace Conference's spatial and geopolitical logics and contemporary refugee‐border dynamics. We argue that the spatial and geopolitical logics that framed the WWI Paris Peace Conference—the creation of new states, the propagation of the Western ideal of bounded sovereign states, the nationalist goals of self‐determination and homogeneous ethnic nations, and the establishment of a system of international governance—continue to impact refugee‐border dynamics and “crises” today. The categories, ideals, and practices of the international refugee regime that emerged over the last one‐hundred years stem in great part from these logics. In this paper, we urge critical contemplation about how these foundations—including the establishment of the post of High Commissioner for Refugees in 1921, the resultant Nansen Passports, the post‐WWI minority treaties, and lastly the 1933 Convention Relating to the International Status of Refugees—connect to contemporary human (im)mobility and border violence. We also introduce the articles in this special issue and highlight key themes and future directions for research in critical migration studies.     

Martian cratering 12. Utilizing primary crater clusters to study crater populations and meteoroid properties

Images from Mars Global Surveyor and later images from Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter reveal that roughly half of the meteoroids striking Mars (at meter to few decameter crater diameters) fragment in the Martian atmosphere, producing small clusters of primary impact craters. Statistics of these “primary clusters” yield valuable information about important Martian phenomena and properties of interplanetary bodies, including meteoroid behavior in the Martian atmosphere, bulk strengths of bodies striking Mars, and the fraction of Martian “field secondary” craters, a datum that would improve crater count chronometry. Many Martian impactors fragment at altitudes significantly higher than 18 km above the mean surface of Mars, and we find that most bodies striking Mars and Earth have low bulk strengths, consistent with crumbly or highly fractured objects. Applying statistics of primary clusters at various elevations and independent diameter bins, we describe a technique to estimate the percentage of semirandomly scattered “field secondary” craters. Our provisional estimate of this percentage, in the diameter range ~250 m down to ~22 m, is ~40% to ~80% of the total impacts, with the higher percentages at smaller diameters. Our data argue against earlier suggestions of overwhelming dominance by either primaries or secondaries in this diameter range.     

Methods to Estimate Source Zone Depletion of Fuel Releases by Groundwater Flow

We compare two methods for estimating the natural source zone depletion (NSZD) rate at fuel release sites that occurs by groundwater flow through the source zone due to dissolution and transport of biodegradation products. Dissolution is addressed identically in both methods. The “mass budget method”, previously proposed and applied by others, estimates the petroleum hydrocarbon biodegradation rate based on dissolved electron acceptor delivery and dissolved biodegradation product removal by groundwater flow. The mass budget method relies on assumed stoichiometry for the degradation reactions and differences in concentrations of dissolved species (oxygen, nitrate, sulfate, reduced iron, reduced manganese, nonvolatile dissolved organic carbon, methane) at monitoring locations upgradient and downgradient of the source zone. We illustrate a refinement to account for degradation reactions associated with loss of reduced iron from solution. The “carbon budget method,” a simplification of approaches applied by others, addresses carbon‐containing species in solution or lost from solution (precipitated) and does not require assumptions about stoichiometry or information about electron acceptors. We apply both methods to a fuel release site with unusually detailed monitoring data and discuss applicability to more typical and less thoroughly monitored sites. The methods, as would typically be applied, yield similar results but have different constraints and uncertainties. Overall, we conclude that the carbon budget method has greater practical utility as it is simpler, requires fewer assumptions, accounts for most iron‐reducing reactions, and does not include CO₂ that escapes from the saturated to the unsaturated zone.     

Storage and Preservation of Artificial Sweeteners in Groundwater Samples

Compound‐specific standardized sampling and storage methods are not available for artificial sweeteners found in groundwater. This study aimed to understand: (1) the appropriate length of storage time for samples containing acesulfame (ACE), sucralose (SUC), saccharin (SAC), and cyclamate (CYC) in simulated groundwater (SGW); (2) conditions of their stability; and (3) which sampling materials are appropriate for sample collection. The evaluated storage conditions included acidification, headspace, exposure to light, and refrigeration; the evaluated sampling materials included steel, stainless steel, aluminum, polyvinyl chloride, polyamide (nylon), polypropylene (PharMed BPT?) tubing, styrene‐ethylene‐butylene co‐polymer (MasterFlex?) tubing, and polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon?) tubing. All compounds evaluated were stable in storage at 4 °C for 241 d (8 months). Concentrations of artificial sweeteners were consistently within 60% to 120% of original concentrations, except ACE and SAC that were substantially lower under acidified conditions at 25 °C after 241 d. Artificial sweetener concentrations remained nearly constant while in contact with all sampling materials except steel. SEM and TEM images showed oxidation of steel occurred; moreover, removal of all artificial sweetener compounds from aqueous solution had occurred after 289 d. These results suggest artificial sweetener analyses conducted within 14 d of sample collection produce optimal results; however, longer storage times may be acceptable under certain conditions. The results also suggest concentrations of artificial sweeteners in SGW are not affected by contact with typical well casing, sampling, and storage materials, with the exception of steel. The findings from this study will improve the use of artificial sweeteners as tracers in environmental studies.     

Regional debris-flow and debris-flood frequency–magnitude relationships

Construction of frequency–magnitude (F–M) relationships of debris floods and debris flows is challenging because of few direct observations, discontinuous event occurrence, loss of field evidence, the difficulty of accessing the sediment archive and the challenge of finding suitable statistical methods to analyse the dataset. Consultants often face budget limitations that prohibit application of the full gamut of absolute dating methods, stratigraphic analysis and analytical tools necessary to fully resolve the F–M legacy. In some cases, F–M curves are needed for watersheds without local information, or where obtaining this information is prohibitively expensive. For such watersheds, the F–M relationship may be estimated where several F–M curves have already been assembled in a specific region. Individual F–M curves are normalized by fan area or fan volume, then stratified by process type and geomorphic activity level. This paper describes the development of regional F–M curves for debris flows in southwestern British Columbia and debris flows and debris floods in the Bow River valley near Canmore, Alberta. We apply the regional relationships to other cases in Canada and the United States and demonstrate that the method can be globalized. The regional approach is compared to cases where detailed F–M relationships have been established by other means. Strong negative deviations from the regional debris-flow or debris-flood magnitude trends could signal inherent watershed stability, while strong positive deviations could signal extraordinary landslide processes, or suggest that the fan may be largely of paraglacial origin. We highlight some of these outlying cases and develop a method whereby the regional curves can be meaningfully adjusted, or reliance can be placed on lower or upper confidence bounds of the F–M curves. We caution against the indiscriminate use of the regionally based F–M curves, especially in watersheds where multiple geomorphic processes are active. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Women and seed management: A study of two villages in Bangladesh

Seed management has until recently been neglected in agrobiodiversity research. Gender dimensions in seed selection, processing, storage and exchange embody critical task areas in the human management of diverse crop species and varieties. This paper focuses on women's roles in seed management in field and homegarden crops in Bangladesh and reports on the findings of a study in two villages in Tangail District. Seventy-five women were surveyed with a questionnaire and subsets interviewed in-depth; focus groups conducted for women and men provided a means of cross-checking responses. Three distinct areas of agrobiodiversity were addressed: the gendered divisions of labour among agricultural tasks; the pervasiveness of seed saving among respondents; and seed management practices and techniques. The results indicate that while men have greater authority over field activities, homegarden production is the exclusive domain of women. Seed management is seen as an extension of women's domestic duties: women are responsible for all seed processing, storage and exchange for field as well as homegarden crops. The vast majority of seeds sown are saved on-farm by women, revealing important cultural, economic and environmental implications for agrobiodiversity conservation and local differences.