Regional modeling of climate change impacts on smallholder agriculture and ecosystems in Central America

Climate change will have serious repercussions for agriculture, ecosystems, and farmer livelihoods in Central America. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable due to their reliance on agriculture and ecosystem services for their livelihoods. There is an urgent need to develop national and local adaptation responses to reduce these impacts, yet evidence from historical climate change is fragmentary. Modeling efforts help bridge this gap. Here, we review the past decade of research on agricultural and ecological climate change impact models for Central America. The results of this review provide insights into the expected impacts of climate change and suggest policy actions that can help minimize these impacts. Modeling indicates future climate-driven changes, often declines, in suitability for Central American crops. Declines in suitability for coffee, a central crop in the regional economy, are noteworthy. Ecosystem models suggest that climate-driven changes are likely at low- and high-elevation montane forest transitions. Modeling of vulnerability suggests that smallholders in many parts of the region have one or more vulnerability factors that put them at risk. Initial adaptation policies can be guided by these existing modeling results. At the same time, improved modeling is being developed that will allow policy action specifically targeted to vulnerable groups, crops, and locations. We suggest that more robust modeling of ecological responses to climate change, improved representation of the region in climate models, and simulation of climate influences on crop yields and diseases (especially coffee leaf rust) are key priorities for future research.     

Household Water Insecurity in the Global North: A Study of Rural and Periurban Settlements on the Texas–Mexico Border

This article examines household-level characteristics that predict water insecurity in low-income rural and periurban communities on the Texas–Mexico border. We employ two logistic regression models (binary and ordered) to identify household characteristics that are more likely to result in water insecurity. Our analyses yielded unexpected findings: Whereas socioeconomic factors are weak predictors, immigration status of household members is a significant variable that contributes to household water insecurity. Policymakers need to pay more attention to marginalized communities as “universal” water access still leaves populations without adequate, reliable, and affordable water in the Global North.     

Linking watershed disturbance with nearshore sedimentation and the shell beds of Lake Tanganyika (Mahale Mountains,Tanzania)

Extensive deposits of shell-rich sediments in the nearshore environment of Lake Tanganyika, Africa, form a unique habitat for a diverse group of endemic gastropods, crustaceans, fish and sponges, among other organisms. Anthropogenic alteration of the lake’s hinterland from deforestation, fires, and agriculture threaten this crucial habitat through sediment pollution of the littoral environment. This study examines the sedimentology of these nearshore shell beds along a study area north of the Mahale Mountains (Tanzania) to test whether varying levels of watershed disturbance, determined by analysis of satellite imagery, within three moderately sized watersheds (>?100 km²) results in sedimentological differences offshore. The results show that shell beds adjacent to disturbed watersheds (Lagosa and Rukoma) contain more fine-grained sediment compared to shell beds offshore of the undisturbed watershed (Katumbi). Widespread burning, clearance, and land cultivation, and rains of the wet season are causal factors that result in significant differences in fine-grained sedimentation, larger sediment plumes offshore, and increased shoreline progradation. In areas most affected by sedimentation, sponges are largely absent, and shell coverage, which is a measure of fish-nesting capabilities, is lower. The discovery of a small population of live Neothauma tanganyicense offshore of the Katumbi river suggests that the presence of shell-bed forming gastropods in front of a relatively low disturbance watershed, and their conspicuous absence offshore of the other two watersheds, could be related to recent watershed disturbance and increased sedimentation. The increased fine-grained sedimentation and limited shell production by the reduced modern gastropod populations may signal that the shell-bed ecosystem of Lake Tanganyika is at risk.     

Rockfall risk management using a pre-failure deformation database

Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) monitoring has been used to estimate the location, volume, and kinematics of a variety of small magnitude rockfalls before failure (1–1000 m³ range), and in some cases, potential failure time has been assessed through the application of inverse velocity methods. However, our current understanding of rock slope pre-failure behavior for this magnitude range and prediction ability is based on observations of a small number of failure case histories. In this study, a pre-failure deformation database was constructed for rockfall volumes exceeding 0.1 m³, observed over a 1252-day study interval at the Goldpan rock slope, British Columbia, Canada, in order to better understand the pre-failure behavior of rock slopes and provide an empirical means of estimating temporal failure ranges. Repeated TLS datasets were acquired at an average scanning interval of 2–3 months. A total of 90 rockfall events were recorded at this site, during this time period, of which 64 (71%) exhibited measurable deformation prior to failure. Classification of rockfalls by volume suggests that a scale dependency may exist, as deformation was detected for a greater proportion of rockfalls >?5 m³ (92%) than for smaller rockfalls in the range of 0.1–0.5 m³ (61%). A lower rate of pre-failure deformation detection was also reported for planar sliding failures as compared with wedge or toppling failures, suggesting that deformation was less easily detected for these failure types. This study proposes and implements a framework for rockfall assessment and forecasting that does not require continuous monitoring of deformation.     

Meteorites found on Misfits Flat dry lake,Nevada

Meteorites have been found on the small Misfits Flat dry lakebed near Stagecoach, Nevada (119.382W, +39.348N). Since the first find on Sept. 22, 2013, a total of 58 stones of weathering stage W2/3 with a combined mass of 339 g have been collected in 19 visits to the area. This small (3.3 × 3.6 km) lakebed is now a newly designated dense collection area (DCA). Most meteorites were found in a small 350 × 180 m area along the north shore and most are fragments of several broken individual stones. Three of these fragments were classified as an LL4/5 of shock stage S2, now named Misfits Flat 001, one of which (stone MF33) fell 8.1 ± 1.3 ka ago based on the ¹⁴C terrestrial age, assuming it came from a 20–80 cm diameter meteoroid. In addition, a small darkly crusted meteorite MF34, now named Misfits Flat 002, was found 820 m WSW from the main mass. This meteorite is classified as an LL5 ordinary chondrite with shock stage S4/5. The meteorite is saturated in ¹⁴C at 63 dpm kg^?1, suggesting it originated from the center of a 0.5 m diameter meteoroid, or deep inside a ~1.0 m meteoroid, less than 300 yr ago. Accounts exist of a fireball seen at 13:15 UT on March 2, 1895, that are consistent with the find location of Misfits Flat 002.     

Race and (Online) Sites of Consumption

Due to the hybrid nature of material and digital spaces, more decisions are being made online that have a direct effect on offline actions. This is increasingly true for the locations where people are choosing to consume goods and services such as restaurants or retail outlets. The growth of the GeoWeb—personal data uploaded to certain Internet sites such as social media platforms—has established large databases showing the locations where people go during their daily lives for the purposes of consumption. One such repository is the social network, Foursquare, which people use to display their physical location to their friends, digitally. In looking more closely at datasets from Foursquare overlaid with information on racial characteristics in census tracts, a pattern emerges: predominantly African‐American tracts are increasingly left out of this type of online participation. This paper will compare Foursquare data from several U.S. cities to discuss the implications of being left off of social media platforms tied to economic activity. It is likely that these virtually invisible areas will have a direct impact on the economic vitality of their physical counterparts     

Assessing the Efficacy of Transition Theory to Identify Industry Transformation: a case study examining the deregulation of Australia's dairy industry

Transformation is a key concept in social-ecological systems research, and transition theory in particular; however, the essential elements of a transformation are yet to be clearly articulated. This article explores the changes that took place when Australian governments deliberately set out to restructure the Australian dairy industry. Using the subtropical dairy industry as a case study, we conducted semi-structured interviews with industry stakeholders. Our analysis was structured around transition concepts thus testing the framework's efficacy. We found that deregulation substantially altered the culture of the industry and the structure and working practices of the production system, supply chain, industry organisations and government agencies. Transition theory and its concepts provided a useful framework to explain how systemic change transformed the industry. Transition theory identified the multi-scalar nature of the interactions between structure and practice and the social and power relationships that reinforced change.     

1DTempPro: Analyzing Temperature Profiles for Groundwater/Surface‐water Exchange

A new computer program, 1DTempPro, is presented for the analysis of vertical one‐dimensional (1D) temperature profiles under saturated flow conditions. 1DTempPro is a graphical user interface to the U.S. Geological Survey code Variably Saturated 2‐Dimensional Heat Transport (VS2DH), which numerically solves the flow and heat‐transport equations. Pre‐ and postprocessor features allow the user to calibrate VS2DH models to estimate vertical groundwater/surface‐water exchange and also hydraulic conductivity for cases where hydraulic head is known.