Engagement in the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment: commitment,capacity, and communication for impact

This paper examines the dynamics of energy investments and clean energy Research and Development (R&D) using a scenario-based modeling approach. Starting from the global scenarios proposed in the RoSE model ensemble experiment, we analyze the dynamics of investments under different assumptions regarding economic and population growth as well as availability of fossil fuel resources, in the absence of a climate policy. Our analysis indicates that economic growth and the speed of income convergence across countries matters for improvements in energy efficiency, both via dedicated R&D investments but mostly through capital-energy substitution. In contrast, fossil fuel prices, by changing the relative competitiveness of energy sources, create an economic opportunity for radical innovation in the energy sector. Indeed, our results suggest that fossil fuel availability is the key driver of investments in low carbon energy innovation. However, this innovation, by itself, is not sufficient to induce emission reductions compatible with climate stabilization objectives.     

Developing country perspectives on ‘mitigation actions’, ‘NAMAs’, and ‘LCDS’

The MAPS programme, which seeks to deepen mitigation ambition in developing countries, is engaged in exploring the concepts of Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and Low Carbon Development Strategies (LCDS) from a developing country perspective. Here, climate mitigation practitioners in six developing countries were surveyed for their understanding of these concepts (anonymous, personal communications with climate mitigation practitioners in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, India, and South Africa). It is found that there is much scope for clarity and conceptual elaboration in this policy space. NAMAs are largely interpreted as mitigation activities packaged for submission to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) registry, but are not held to constitute the full set of mitigation activity in a developing country. New terminology may be needed to describe this broader set. A tighter interpretation of LCDS to distinguish between a strategic or coordinating policy action may be useful. Other themes arising include the way ‘national appropriateness’ is reflected in the concepts, and the role of international policy in deepening mitigation action in developing countries.     

The Fernow Experimental Forest,West Virginia,USA: Insights,datasets, and opportunities

Long-term experimental watershed studies have significantly influenced our global understanding of hydrological processes. The discovery and characterization of how stream water quantity and quality respond to a changing environment (e.g. land-use change, acidic deposition) has only been possible due to the establishment of catchments devoted to long-term study. One such catchment is the Fernow Experimental Forest (FEF) located in the headwaters of the Appalachian Mountains in West Virginia, a region that provides essential freshwater ecosystem services to eastern and mid-western United States communities. Established in 1934, the FEF is among the earliest experimental watershed studies in the Eastern United States that continues to address emergent challenges to forest ecosystems, including climate change and other threats to forest health. This data note describes available data and presents some findings from more than 50 years of hydrologic research at the FEF. During the first few decades, research at the FEF focused on the relationship between forest management and hydrological processes—especially those related to the overall water balance. Later, research included the examination of interactions between hydrology and soil erosion, biogeochemistry, N-saturation, and acid deposition. Hydro-climatologic and water quality datasets from long-term measurements and data from short-duration studies are publicly available to provide new insights and foster collaborations that will continue to advance our understanding of hydrology in forested headwater catchments. As a result of its rich history of research and abundance of long-term data, the FEF is positioned to continue to advance understanding of forest ecosystems in a time of unprecedented change.     

Characterizing and classifying urban watersheds with compositional and structural attributes

Current land-use classifications used to assess urbanization effects on stream water quality date back to the 1980s when limited information was available to characterize watershed attributes that mediate non-point source pollution. With high resolution remote sensing and widely used GIS tools, there has been a vast increase in the availability and precision of geospatial data of built environments. In this study, we leverage geospatial data to expand the characterization of developed landscapes and create a typology that allows us to better understand the impact of complex developed landscapes across the rural to urban gradient. We assess the ability of the developed landscape typology to reveal patterns in stream water chemistry previously undetected by traditional land-cover based classification. We examine the distribution of land-cover, infrastructure, topography and geology across 3876 National Hydrography Dataset Plus catchments in the Piedmont region of North Carolina, USA. From this dataset, we generate metrics to evaluate the abundance, density and position of landscape features relative to streams, catchment outlets and topographic wetness metrics. While impervious surfaces are a key distinguishing feature of the urban landscape, sanitary infrastructure, population density and geology are better predictors of baseflow stream water chemistry. Unsupervised clustering was used to generate a distinct developed landscape typology based on the expanded, high-resolution landscape feature information. Using stream chemistry data from 37 developed headwater catchments, we compared the baseflow water chemistry grouped by traditional land-cover based classes of urbanization (rural, low, medium and high density) to our composition and structure-based classification (a nine-class typology). The typology based on 22 metrics of developed landscape composition and structure explained over 50% of the variation in NO₃⁻-N, TDN, DOC, Cl⁻, and Br⁻ concentration, while the ISC-based classification only significantly explained 23% of the variation in TDN. These results demonstrate the importance of infrastructure, population and geology in defining developed landscapes and improving discrete classes for water management.     

Biodegradation and environmental behavior of biodiesel mixtures in the sea: An initial study

Biodiesel, a mixture of fatty acid methyl esters (FAMEs) derived from animal fats or vegetable oils, is rapidly moving towards the mainstream as an alternative source of energy. However, the behavior of biodiesel, or blends of biodiesel with fossil diesel, in the marine environment have yet to be fully understood. Hence, we performed a series of initial laboratory experiments and simple calculations to evaluate the microbial and environmental fate of FAMEs. Aerobic seawater microcosms spiked with biodiesel or mixtures of biodiesel and fossil diesel revealed that the FAMEs were degraded at roughly the same rate as n-alkanes, and more rapidly than other hydrocarbon components. The residues extracted from these different microcosms became indistinguishable within weeks. Preliminary results from physical-chemical calculations suggest that FAMEs in biodiesel mixtures will not affect the evaporation rates of spilled petroleum hydrocarbons but may stabilize oil droplets in the water column and thereby facilitate transport.     

A parallel evolutionary strategy based simulation–optimization approach for solving groundwater source identification problems

Groundwater characterization involves the resolution of unknown system characteristics from observation data, and is often classified as an inverse problem. Inverse problems are difficult to solve due to natural ill-posedness and computational intractability. Here we adopt the use of a simulation–optimization approach that couples a numerical pollutant-transport simulation model with evolutionary search algorithms for solution of the inverse problem. In this approach, the numerical transport model is solved iteratively during the evolutionary search. This process can be computationally intensive since several hundreds to thousands of forward model evaluations are typically required for solution. Given the potential computational intractability of such a simulation–optimization approach, parallel computation is employed to ease and enable the solution of such problems. In this paper, several variations of a groundwater source identification problem is examined in terms of solution quality and computational performance. The computational experiments were performed on the TeraGrid cluster available at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications. The results demonstrate the performance of the parallel simulation–optimization approach in terms of solution quality and computational performance.     

从2014年4月1日智利地震认识前震

<正>最近一些大地震如2014年4月1日智利地震之前的地震活动分析结果揭示,一些大地震是有可能被预测的。大地震之前是否有可测量的、明显的前兆异常来警示我们?一直以来,前震被认为是地震预测最有希望的指标。至少一半以上的大地震有前震,但这些前震很难从非前兆地震活动中区分出来。2014年4月1日智利地震及近期其他大地震的前震活动表明,大地震前可能存在可观测的前兆异常。地震相互作用的统计模型表明,当区域     

Analytical study on vulnerability functions for casualty estimation in the collapse of adobe buildings induced by earthquake

Collapse of adobe buildings during an earthquakes with various earthquake intensities is analyzed using the 3-dimensional distinct element method code developed by the first author. Firstly, we evaluate structural damage with damage index, interior-space damage with w score, and human casualties in the collapsing buildings with three casualty criteria. Secondly, we investigate relationships between the earthquake intensity, the structural damage, the interior-space damage, and the casualties. It is found that the casualties have stronger correlation with the interior-space damage than the structural damage, and three vulnerability functions, namely, structural, interior-space and casualty vulnerability functions, are proposed. Effects of reinforcing methods on these functions are also examined. Finally, a series of analytical procedures to develop vulnerability functions and to estimate casualties using the functions are described.     

Organic micropollutants in marine plastics debris from the open ocean and remote and urban beaches

To understand the spatial variation in concentrations and compositions of organic micropollutants in marine plastic debris and their sources, we analyzed plastic fragments (∼10 mm) from the open ocean and from remote and urban beaches. Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane and its metabolites (DDTs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), alkylphenols and bisphenol A were detected in the fragments at concentrations from 1 to 10,000 ng/g. Concentrations showed large piece-to-piece variability. Hydrophobic organic compounds such as PCBs and PAHs were sorbed from seawater to the plastic fragments. PCBs are most probably derived from legacy pollution. PAHs showed a petrogenic signature, suggesting the sorption of PAHs from oil slicks. Nonylphenol, bisphenol A, and PBDEs came mainly from additives and were detected at high concentrations in some fragments both from remote and urban beaches and the open ocean.     

Closed Circuit Television (CCTV) Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology: analysis of Christchurch Public Hospital video data from the 22 February Christchurch earthquake event

Earthquake epidemiological research indicates that the behavioural response influences the nature and severity of injuries sustained. However, there is no observational evidence of the actions individuals engage in during and immediately following earthquake shaking, and the context in which earthquake injuries and deaths are caused. Closed Circuit Television Earthquake Behaviour Coding Methodology has been developed as a tool to classify human behaviour during and immediately following earthquake shaking using real event video data. The coding methodology was applied to security video data captured during the 22 February 2011 M_w6.3 ‘Christchurch’ earthquake event from the Christchurch Public Hospital which experienced shaking intensity of MM9 lasting approximately 12–15 s. We applied this coding methodology to determine: demography, trans-event behavioural responses, post-event behavioural responses, influence of social context on behaviour, and influence of behaviour on injuries. A total of 213 individuals from 31 different camera views were analysed. Sixty-six per cent of the individuals were adult-aged females. The primary trans-event responses were to hold (26%) onto furniture, walls, and/or other people close to them and to look around (30%). No individuals were observed to perform all ‘Drop, Cover, Hold’ actions, the recommended action during strong earthquake shaking in New Zealand. Post-event behaviour included: running, walking, providing assistance, moving towards others, visual communication, and some individuals gave instructions. Social contextual behaviour varied depending on the role of the adult. There were no serious injuries linked to behaviour. The results of this initial study indicate the coding methodology can record the distribution of and variation in human behaviours. Therefore, objective observation of earthquake video data can provide a useful quantitative measure of human behaviour. Significantly, the process will enable researchers to look more closely at behaviours, as well as the social and physical contexts associated with injury risk during and immediately following earthquake shaking.