Wave of peace? Tsunami disaster diplomacy in Aceh, Indonesia

This paper uses the disaster diplomacy framework to address the impact of the 26 December 2004 tsunami disaster on the decades-long conflict between the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) and the Government of Indonesia. This framework enables the identification of a micro-factors of great importance in securing momentum for the peace talks. These factors include informal networks being created, plus disaster relief and diplomacy occurring at multiple levels through multi-way processes and the position of GAM dedicated to reconstruction activities. This paper further shows that, in the case of Aceh, the disaster had a deep influence on the peace talks between GAM and the Indonesian government and on the eventual implementation of the peace agreement reached. However, the tsunami disaster should not be considered the sole vector of peace in Aceh, but as a powerful catalyst in diplomatic talks, since negotiation between both sides were ongoing before the disaster and were favoured by recent changes in the political environment. Twenty-eight months after the tsunami catastrophe, it is actually non-disaster and internal political factors which are likely to have a more significant impact on the long-term resolution of the Aceh conflict. One important outcome is that it appears that the slow, unequal and often poor reconstruction process is not hindering, or even threatening, the peace process because tsunami disaster related factors are less important for peace than non-tsunami disaster related factors, findings in line with previous disaster diplomacy case studies.     

Local meteoric water lines describe extratropical precipitation

Stable water isotopes δ¹⁸O and δ²H are used to investigate precipitation trends and storm dynamics to advance knowledge of precipitation patterns in a warming world. Herein, δ¹⁸O and δ²H were used to determine the relationship between extratropical cyclonic precipitation and local meteoric water lines (LMWLs) in the eastern Ohio Valley and the eastern United States. Precipitation volume weighted and unweighted central Ohio LMWLs, created with samples collected during 2012–2018, showed that temperature had the greatest effect on precipitation isotopic composition. HYSPLIT back trajectory modelling showed that precipitation was primarily derived from a mid-continental moisture source. Remnants of major hurricanes were collected as extratropical precipitation during the 2012–2018 sampling period in central Ohio. Extratropical precipitation samples were not significantly different from the samples that created the central Ohio LMWL. Six additional LMWLs were derived from United States Geological Survey (USGS) Atmospheric Integrated Research Monitoring Network (AIRMoN) samples collected in Pennsylvania, Delaware, Tennessee, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Oxford, Ohio. Meteoric water lines describing published samples from Superstorm Sandy, plotted with these AIRMoN LMWLs, showed isotopic composition of Superstorm Sandy precipitation was commonly more depleted than the average isotopic composition at the mid-latitude locations. Meteoric water lines describing the Superstorm Sandy precipitation were not significantly different in slope from LMWLs generated within 300 km of the USGS AIRMoN site. This finding, which was observed across the eastern Ohio Valley and eastern United States, demonstrated a consistent precipitation δ²H–δ¹⁸O relationship for extratropical cyclonic and non-cyclonic events. This work also facilitates the analysis of storm development based on the relationship between extratropical event signature and the LMWL. Analysis of extratropical precipitation in relation to LMWLs along storm tracks allows for stronger development of precipitation models and understanding of which climatic and atmospheric factors determine the isotopic composition of precipitation.     

Negotiating changing livelihoods: The sampan dwellers of Tam Giang Lagoon, Vi?t Nam

Central Vi?t Nam is one of the most vulnerable areas in the country to natural disasters. In 1985 a major typhoon hit the Tam Giang Lagoon coastal area in the province of Th?a Tiên-Hu?, Central Vi?t Nam, with severe impacts on the sampan dwellers who lived there on boats and fished for their livelihoods. Since then, the government has attempted to resettle them on land in order to decrease their vulnerability to such events. Consequently, this process has changed the livelihood options as well as the social networks of the sampan dwellers. This study of the resettlement village of Th?y ?i?n analyses the social networks and different forms of social capital being utilised by the resettled sampan dwellers as part of their changing livelihoods and questions whether the social capital formed will indeed lead to a long term decrease in vulnerability. It is found that while bonding and linking social capital have been newly formed, the trust required for bridging social capital formation is still missing, and this in turn is hindering the possibilities of sustainable livelihood formation.     

Geochemistry,dispersal, volumes and chronology of Holocene silicic tephra layers from the Katla volcanic system,Iceland

At least 12 silicic tephra layers (SILK tephras) erupted between ca. 6600 and ca. 1675 yr BP from the Katla volcanic system, have been identified in southern Iceland. In addition to providing significant new knowledge on the Holocene volcanism of the Katla system which typically produces basaltic tephra, the SILK tephras form distinct and precise isochronous marker horizons in a climatically sensitive location close to both the atmospheric and marine polar fronts. With one exception the SILK tephras have a narrow compositional range, with SiO₂ between 63 and 67%. Geochemically they are indistinguishable from ocean transported pumice found on beaches in the North Atlantic region, although they differ significantly from the silicic component of the North Atlantic Ash Zone One (NAAZO). Volumes of airborne SILK tephra range from 0.05 to 0.3 km³. We present new isopach maps of the six largest layers and demonstrate that they originate within the Katla caldera. The apparently stable magma system conditions that produced the SILK tephras may have been established as a consequence of the eruption of the silicic component of NAAZO (ca. 10.3 ka) and disrupted by another large‐scale event, the tenth century ad Eldgjá eruption (ca. 1 ka). Despite the current long repose, silicic activity of this type may occur again in the future, presenting hitherto unknown hazards. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Inversion of time-dependent nuclear well-logging data using neural networks

The purpose of this work was to investigate a new and fast inversion methodology for the prediction of subsurface formation properties such as porosity, salinity and oil saturation, using time‐dependent nuclear well logging data. Although the ultimate aim is to apply the technique to real‐field data, an initial investigation as described in this paper, was first required; this has been carried out using simulation results from the time‐dependent radiation transport problem within a borehole. Simulated neutron and γ‐ray fluxes at two sodium iodide (NaI) detectors, one near and one far from a pulsed neutron source emitting at ～14 MeV, were used for the investigation. A total of 67 energy groups from the BUGLE96 cross section library together with 567 property combinations were employed for the original flux response generation, achieved by solving numerically the time‐dependent Boltzmann radiation transport equation in its even parity form. Material property combinations (scenarios) and their correspondent teaching outputs (flux response at detectors) are used to train the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and test data is used to assess the accuracy of the ANNs. The trained networks are then used to produce a surrogate model of the expensive, in terms of computational time and resources, forward model with which a simple inversion method is applied to calculate material properties from the time evolution of flux responses at the two detectors. The inversion technique uses a fast surrogate model comprising 8026 artificial neural networks, which consist of an input layer with three input units (neurons) for porosity, salinity and oil saturation; and two hidden layers and one output neuron representing the scalar photon or neutron flux prediction at the detector. This is the first time this technique has been applied to invert pulsed neutron logging tool information and the results produced are very promising. The next step in the procedure is to apply the methodology to real data.     

Evidence for delayed poleward expansion of North Atlantic surface waters during the last interglacial (MIS 5e)

The Last Interglacial (Marine Isotopic Stage or MIS 5e) surface ocean heat flux from the Rockall Basin (NE Atlantic) towards the Arctic Ocean was reconstructed by analysing dinoflagellate cyst (dinocyst) assemblages in four sediment cores. Together with records of stable isotopes and ice-rafted detritus, the assemblage data reflect the northward retreat of ice(berg)-laden waters and the gradual development towards interglacial conditions at the transition from the Saalian deglaciation (Termination II) into MIS 5e. At the Rockall Basin, this onset of the Last Interglacial is soon followed by the appearance of the thermophilic dinocyst species Spiniferites mirabilis, with relative abundances higher than those observed at present in the area. North of the Iceland-Scotland Ridge, however, S. mirabilis only appears in significant numbers during late MIS 5e, between ～118 and 116.5 ka. Hence, fully marine Last Interglacial conditions with most intense Atlantic surface water influence occurred during late MIS 5e in the Nordic seas, and consequently also farther north in the Arctic Ocean, and at times when northern hemisphere summer insolation was already significantly decreased. The stratigraphic position of this Late Interglacial optimum is supported by planktic foraminifers and contrasts with the timing of the early Holocene climatic optimum in this area. We interpret the delayed northward expansion of Atlantic waters towards the polar latitudes as a result of the Saalian ice sheet deglaciation and its specific impact on the subsequent water mass evolution in this region.     

An Albian–Cenomanian unconformity in the northern Andes: Evidence and tectonic significance

The Villeta Group of Colombia and equivalent stratigraphic units of Venezuela and Ecuador comprise marine sequences ranging from Albian to Santonian in age. Deposition of the Villeta Group was presumed to take place entirely in quiet tectonic conditions in a passive margin setting that occupied NW South America. From a large database of 2D/3D seismic, well, surface geology, and biostratigraphic data, we present evidence for intra-Villeta (mostly late Albian–Cenomanian) deformation in parts of the Upper Magdalena Valley and Eastern Cordillera of Colombia, controlled by transpressional fault reactivation, produced by transpressional fault reactivation and thrusting that resulted in an angular unconformity. This event has been largely unnoticed in the literature, but previously scattered evidence supports our observations, suggesting regionally extensive tectonism. Published fission-track age determinations and other geologic evidence from Colombia and Venezuela suggest significant uplifts around 80–100 m.y., which may reflect changes in the subduction regime, with compressional deformation in certain regions and extensional deformation in others. A late Albian onset of compressional deformation along the Colombian and Peruvian segments of the Andes may be related to the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean at equatorial latitudes. Identification of tectonic activity with development of an unconformity in intra-Villeta times provides new insights into understanding the evolution of the Upper Magdalena Valley and adjacent areas of Colombia and western Venezuela and creates new possibilities for hydrocarbon exploration, with additional trapping phases, better reservoir preservation by early migration and secondary porosity, and ultimately facies changes with stratigraphic potential.     

Multispectral thermal infrared mapping of the 1 October 1988 Kupaianaha flow field,Kilauea volcano,Hawaii

Multispectral thermal infrared radiance measurements of the Kupaianaha flow field were acquired with the NASA airborne Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) on the morning of 1 October 1988. The TIMS data were used to map both the temperature and emissivity of the surface of the flow field. The temperature map depicted the underground storage and transport of lava. The presence of molten lava in a tube or tumulus resulted in surface temperatures that were at least 10° C above ambient. The temperature map also clearly defined the boundaries of hydrothermal plumes which resulted from the entry of lava into the ocean. The emissivity map revealed the boundaries between individual flow units within the Kupaianaha field. In general, the emissivity of the flows varied systematically with age but the relationship between age and emissivity was not unique. Distinct spectral anomalies, indicative of silica-rich surface materials, were mapped near fumaroles and ocean entry sites. This apparent enrichment in silica may have resulted from an acid-induced leaching of cations from the surfaces of glassy flows. Such incipient alteration may have been the cause for virtually all of the emissivity variations observed on the flow field, the spectral anomalies representing areas where the acid attack was most intense.     

The role of the Indian monsoon onset in the West African monsoon onset: observations and AGCM nudged simulations

In spring the inland penetration of the West African Monsoon (WAM) is weak and the associated rainband is located over the Guinean coast. Then within a few days deep convection weakens considerably and the rainband reappears about 20?days after over the Sahel, where it remains until late September signalling the summer rainy season. Over the period 1989–2008 a teleconnection induced by the Indian monsoon onset is shown to have a significant impact on the WAM onset, by performing composite analyses on both observational data sets and atmospheric general circulation model simulations ensembles where the model is nudged to observations over the Indian monsoon sector. The initiation of convective activity over the Indian subcontinent north of 15°N at the time of the Indian monsoon onset results in a westward propagating Rossby wave establishing over North Africa 7–15?days after. A back-trajectory analysis shows that during this period, dry air originating from the westerly subtropical jet entrance is driven to subside and move southward over West Africa inhibiting convection there. At the same time the low-level pressure field over West Africa reinforces the moisture transport inland. After the passage of the wave, the dry air intrusions weaken drastically. Hence 20?days after the Indian monsoon onset, convection is released over the Sahel where thermodynamic conditions are more favourable. This scenario is very similar in the observations and in the nudged simulations, meaning that the Indian monsoon onset is instrumental in the WAM onset and its predictability at intraseasonal scale.