A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.     

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.     

A Test of Central Place Theory Using Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR‐A) of China's North Central Plain

Abstract

This study utilizes radar imagery to test the application of Walter Christaller's central‐place theory on China's North Central Plain. Examination of the spatial order and layout of settlements reveal that central place theory's transportation principle, k=4 exists. The study distinguishes four hierarchical settlement sizes and shows how effective rural societies are in evolving settlement structures whose spatial order and regularity avoids spatial inefficiencies. The advent of space based imaging systems such as SIR‐A radar imagery has permitted tests of new sites where the restrictive conditions of central place theory exist. These studies allow parallels to be drawn between the postulates of this theory of settlement structure and whether the theory is matched in reality.

This work is needed because of such scarcities. It allows the theory to undergo further subjections, a scrutiny needed for the validation, or otherwise of its postulates. The work adds to a large body of literature on this topic whose limitation has been the scarcity of actual test sites where theory and reality can be compared. The study presents positive indications that central place theory exists in reality, a compliment to the remarkable perceptions of Walter Christaller.     

Buddha from space—An ancient object of art made of a Chinga iron meteorite fragment*

Abstract– The fall of meteorites has been interpreted as divine messages by multitudinous cultures since prehistoric times, and meteorites are still adored as heavenly bodies. Stony meteorites were used to carve birds and other works of art; jewelry and knifes were produced of meteoritic iron for instance by the Inuit society. We here present an approximately 10.6 kg Buddhist sculpture (the “iron man”) made of an iron meteorite, which represents a particularity in religious art and meteorite science. The specific contents of the crucial main (Fe, Ni, Co) and trace (Cr, Ga, Ge) elements indicate an ataxitic iron meteorite with high Ni contents (approximately 16 wt%) and Co (approximately 0.6 wt%) that was used to produce the artifact. In addition, the platinum group elements (PGEs), as well as the internal PGE ratios, exhibit a meteoritic signature. The geochemical data of the meteorite generally match the element values known from fragments of the Chinga ataxite (ungrouped iron) meteorite strewn field discovered in 1913. The provenance of the meteorite as well as of the piece of art strongly points to the border region of eastern Siberia and Mongolia, accordingly. The sculpture possibly portrays the Buddhist god Vai?ravana and might originate in the Bon culture of the eleventh century. However, the ethnological and art historical details of the “iron man” sculpture, as well as the timing of the sculpturing, currently remain speculative.     

The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual “no policy” scenarios would be an important step toward meeting this challenge. To this end, we introduce the concept of “shared socio-economic (reference) pathways”. Sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions may be achieved by locating the pathways along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. The pathways should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between integrated assessment modelers and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions: climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the pathways. For some applications, socio-economic pathways may have to be augmented by “shared climate policy assumptions” capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. We conclude that the development of shared socio-economic (reference) pathways, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between integrated assessment and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers.     

A Middle‐Late Triassic 40Ar/39Ar age for the Paasselkä impact structure (SE Finland)

Abstract– ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating of recrystallized feldspar glass particles separated from clast‐rich impact melt rocks from the approximately 10 km Paasselkä impact structure (SE Finland) yielded a Middle to Late Triassic (Ladinian‐Karnian) pseudo‐plateau age of 228.7 ± 3.0 (3.4) Ma (2σ). This new age makes Paasselkä the first known Triassic impact structure dated by isotopic methods on the Baltic Shield. The new Paasselkä impact age is, within uncertainty, coeval with isotopic ages recently obtained for the Lake Saint Martin impact structure in Canada, indicating a new Middle to Late Triassic impact crater population on Earth. The comparatively small crater size, however, suggests no relationship between the Paasselkä impact and a postulated extinction event at the Middle/Late Triassic boundary.     

Orientation and nature of active crustal stresses determined by electromagnetic measurements in the Patagonian segment of the South America Plate

Based on electromagnetic measurements we determined the current stress directions in the uppermost continental crust of Patagonia between the active plate margin of the Chilean Pacific coast and the Argentinean passive Atlantic margin. Regional variations of the observed stress pattern are giving details onto the acting tectonic processes. We distinguish five regional stress domains with different prevailing horizontal stress directions (S_H): 1. Southern Coastal Cordillera and Longitudinal Valley (S_H = SSW–NNE), 2. Chiloé Island (S_H = SW–NE), 3. Northern Patagonian Andes (S_H = WSW–ENE), 4. Argentinean Pampa and Atlantic margin (S_H = WNW–ESE) and 5. Southern Patagonian Andes (S_H = WNW–ESE). These stress regimes can be related to the geometry of the subducting Nazca- and Antarctic plates, to the transform fault between the South America and Scotia plates and to passive margin processes along the Atlantic coast. Absolute plate motion and rapid relative plate convergence control the subduction geometry and therefore the stress directions along the convergent margin of the South America Plate and the structural style within and landward of the Magmatic Arc. The knowledge of current local stress directions permits the characterisation of potential fault kinematics. By in situ measuring of electromagnetic emissions from rocks we determined the maximum horizontal stress orientation in the uppermost crust using a new geophysical tool. Our investigations on the orientation of the stress regimes also allow conclusions about the causative forces of either tectonic or gravitational origin in this part of the South-America Plate.