Sensitivity Analysis of Emissions Corridors for the 21st Century

We investigate the sensitivity of emissions corridors for the 21st century to various factors that are currently under debate in the climate change arena. Emissions corridors represent the range of admissible emissions futures that observe some predefined guardrails on the future development of the human-climate system. They are calculated on the conceptual and methodological basis of the tolerable windows approach. We assess the sensitivity of the corridors to the choice of time-resolved as well as intertemporally aggregated guardrails that exclude an intolerable amount of climate change on the one hand and unbearable mitigation burdens on the other. In addition, we investigate the influence of climate sensitivity on the corridors.Results show a large dependence of emissions corridors on the choice of guardrails and the value of climate sensitivity T _{2CO 2}. If the guardrail on climate change is specified in terms of a maximum admissible global mean temperature increase T _max to be observed at any time, the size of the corridors is predominantly determined by a climate impact resilience parameter =T _max/T _{2CO 2}. As is varied from values below 0.5 to values above 1.5, we move from cases where no emissions profile whatsoever can observe all guardrails, to cases where no significant emissions reduction seems necessary given the range of emissions scenarios for the 21st century. The limits on admissible mitigation efforts influence predominantly the timing and the economic viability of emissions reductions. A large mitigation flexibility allows for wait then run emissions paths, while low flexibility asks for a significantly more prudent approach.     

Small-scale heterogeneities below the Gräfenberg array, Germany from seismic wavefield fluctuations of Hindu Kush events

Small-scale elastic heterogeneities (<5  km) are found in the upper lithosphere underneath the Gräfenberg array, southeast Germany. The results are based on the analysis of broadband recordings of 17 intermediate-depth (201–272  km) events from the Hindu Kush region. The wavefront of the first P arrival and the following 40  s coda are separated into coherent and incoherent (scattered) parts in the frequency range from 0.05 to 5  Hz. The frequency-dependent intensities of the mean and fluctuation wavefields are used to describe the scattering characteristics of the lithosphere underneath the receivers. It is possible to discriminate a weak-fluctuation regime of the wavefield in the frequency range below approximately 1.5–2.5  Hz and a strong-fluctuation regime starting at 2.0–2.5  Hz and continuing to higher frequencies. In order to explain the observed wavefield fluctuations, an approach with seismic scattering at random media-type structures is proposed. The preferred model contains heterogeneities with 3–7 per cent perturbations in seismic velocity and correlation lengths of 0.6–4.8  km in the crust. This is compatible with models from active seismic experiments. Scattering in the lithospheric mantle is not required, but cannot be excluded at weak velocity contrasts (<3 per cent).     

The atmospheric heat budget over the western part of the Tibetan plateau during Monex, 1979

The atmospheric heat source strength over western Tibet has been computed for the period beginning with the last ten days in May, 1979 and extending through August, 1979. Our results show a significantly smaller heat source than that obtained by other authors. The discrepancy is mainly due to adjustments in the dray, coefficient suggested by observations and numerical modeling experiments. We subdivided western Tibet into northern and southern parts. In the north sensible heating, SH, provides the dominant input into the atmospheric heat source, whereas in the southern part latent heat, LP, offers a significant contribution after the start of the rainy season.Detailed heat budget calculations were also carried out over limited regions of southwestern Tibet which hau good station coverage. During periods with area-averaged rainfall ≤1 mm/day an atmospheric heat source maximum was located over southwestern Tibet near the 500 hPa level, while a heat sink dominated the upper troposphere in a layer of subsidence. When rainfall exceeded 4 mm/day, ascending motions and heal sources prevailed throughout the troposphere with maxima near 400 hPa. Time series analyses of the heat sourcs components show that the total atmospheric heat source is strongly modulated by the release of latent heat. Atmospheric radiational cooling reveals a phase shift in its relation with precipitation. During the first part of the observation period a correlation of that cooling exists mainly with the net radiation at the top of the atmosphere, during the last part with the net radiation at the ground.     

40Ar-39Ar Ages of Types 3 and 4, L and H Chondrites from Antarctica

Abstract— This is a report on ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar studies of 7 low petrographic type L and H chondrites from Antarctica. From petrographic similarities it has been argued that the L3 chondrites ALHA77015, ?77167, ?77249, and ?77260 are pieces from a common fall (McKinley et al., 1981). Our results now confirm this supposition: The four meteorites have identical characteristic Ar-degassing patterns, very similar K, Ca, Cl, and ³⁶Ar_trapped contents, and similar ⁴⁰Ar-³⁹Ar ages of <4 Ga which are rather unusual for ordinary chondrites and might be due to shock. The undulating age patterns could be due to weathering or to ³⁹Ar recoil. The L4 chondrite ALHA77230 shows no age plateau and only a lower limit for the time of a severe degassing, 4.0 Ga, can be given. ALHA77226 and RKPA78002, two H4 chondrites, exhibit reasonably well defined age plateaus at about 4.3 and 4.4 Ga. Two individual chondrules from RKPA78002 have the same age as the whole rock sample.     

Global fossil energy markets and climate change mitigation – an analysis with REMIND

We analyze the dynamics of global fossil resource markets under different assumptions for the supply of fossil fuel resources, development pathways for energy demand, and climate policy settings. Resource markets, in particular the oil market, are characterized by a large discrepancy between costs of resource extraction and commodity prices on international markets. We explain this observation in terms of (a) the intertemporal scarcity rent, (b) regional price differentials arising from trade and transport costs, (c) heterogeneity and inertia in the extraction sector. These effects are captured by the REMIND model. We use the model to explore economic effects of changes in coal, oil and gas markets induced by climate-change mitigation policies. A large share of fossil fuel reserves and resources will be used in the absence of climate policy leading to atmospheric GHG concentrations well beyond a level of 550 ppm CO₂-eq. This result holds independently of different assumptions about energy demand and fossil fuel availability. Achieving ambitious climate targets will drastically reduce fossil fuel consumption, in particular the consumption of coal. Conventional oil and gas as well as non-conventional oil reserves are still exhausted. We find the net present value of fossil fuel rent until 2100 at 30tril.US$ with a large share of oil and a small share of coal. This is reduced by 9 and 12tril.US$ to achieve climate stabilization at 550 and 450 ppm CO₂-eq, respectively. This loss is, however, overcompensated by revenues from carbon pricing that are 21 and 32tril.US$, respectively. The overcompensation also holds under variations of energy demand and fossil fuel supply.     

Asymmetries in waves and velocities in a groin field

The measured wave elevation and the corresponding two horizontal velocity components of in-line and transverse directions at eight different locations across a bar in a groin field off the East Frisian Island off Norderney at the North Sea Coast have been analysed. The variation of the wave and the velocities spectra within the groin field is reported.The waves and their kinematics are seldom linear in nearshore waters. In this paper, the results obtained through an attempt to study the asymmetries in the wave elevation and the in-line velocity time histories are reported. The probability density of the asymmetries are drawn along with theoretical Rayleigh and Weibull distributions. The variation of the different asymmetry factors within the groin field is discussed.