Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model study of the effect of the main ionospheric trough on oblique HF radiowave propagation

The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the main ionospheric trough location on the form of oblique sounding ionograms on the Murmansk-St. Petersburg subauroral radio path. Using a mathematical model of the high-latitude ionosphere, we have calculated four different distributions of electron density along the radio path. One of the distributions has been obtained when the trough is absent, and the remaining three distributions contain troughs of approximately identical depth and width but located at different distances from the ends of the radio path. Using the program of two-dimensional ray tracing, we numerically synthesized oblique-incidence ionograms for each of the four obtained distributions of electron density. The calculations have shown that the location of the main ionospheric trough affects considerably the shape of oblique-incidence ionograms.     

Precise Relative Location of 25-ton Chemical Explosions at Balapan Using IMS Stations

—?We test how well low-magnitude (m _bLg 1.8 to 2.6), 25-ton chemical explosions at Balapan, Kazakhstan, can be located using IMS stations and standard earth models, relying on precisely determined relative arrival times of nearly similar, regional and teleseismic waveforms. Three 1997 Balapan explosions were recorded by a number of currently reporting and surrogate IMS stations. Three regional stations and two teleseismic arrays yielded consistent waveforms appropriate for relative picking. Master-event locations based on the AK135 model and ground-truth information from the first, shallowest and best-recorded explosion, fell under 1 km from known locations, for depths constrained to that of the master event. The resulting 90% confidence ellipses covered 12–13?km² and contained the true locations; however, results for depth constrained to true depth were slightly less satisf actory. From predictions based on ground truth, we found a P _g -coda phase at Makanchi, Kazakhstan to be misidentified and poorly modeled. After accounting for this, 90% ellipses shrank to 2–3?km² and true-depth mislocation vectors became more consistent with confidence-ellipse orientations. These results suggest that a high level of precision could be provided by a tripartite array of calibration shots in cases where models are poorly known. We hope that the successful relocation of these small Balapan shots will support the role of calibration explosions in verification monitoring and special event studies, including on-site inspection.     

An Efficient Numerical Method for Computing Synthetic Seismograms for a Layered Half-space with Sources and Receivers at Close or Same Depths

— It is difficult to compute synthetic seismograms for a layered half-space with sources and receivers at close to or the same depths using the generalized R/T coefficient method (Kennett, 1983; Luco and Apsel, 1983; Yao and Harkrider, 1983; Chen, 1993), because the wavenumber integration converges very slowly. A semi-analytic method for accelerating the convergence, in which part of the integration is implemented analytically, was adopted by some authors (Apsel and Luco, 1983; Hisada, 1994, 1995). In this study, based on the principle of the Repeated Averaging Method (Dahlquist and Björck, 1974; Chang, 1988), we propose an alternative, efficient, numerical method, the peak-trough averaging method (PTAM), to overcome the difficulty mentioned above. Compared with the semi-analytic method, PTAM is not only much simpler mathematically and easier to implement in practice, but also more efficient. Using numerical examples, we illustrate the validity, accuracy and efficiency of the new method.     

A data‐based mechanistic modelling (DBM) approach to understanding dynamic sediment transmission through Wyresdale Park Reservoir,Lancashire, UK

This paper outlines the application of a new data‐based mechanistic (DBM) modelling methodology to the characterization of the sediment transmission dynamics in a small upland reservoir, Wyresdale Park, Lancashire. The DBM modelling strategy exploits advanced statistical procedures to infer the dynamic model structure and its associated parameters directly from the instrumented data, producing a parametrically efficient, continuous time, transfer function model which relates suspended sediment load at the reservoir inflow to the outflow at the event scale. The associated differential equation model parameters have physical attributes which can be interpreted in terms of sediment transmission processes and associated reservoir trap efficiency. Sedigraph analysis suggests that wind‐induced resuspension episodically supplies an additional load to the reservoir outlet. The stochastic nature of the DBM model makes it ideal for evaluating the effects of uncertainty through Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) for discharge and sediment transmission. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.