Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina,USA

We evaluate relative sea level (RSL) trajectories for North Carolina, USA, in the context of tide-gauge measurements and geological sea-level reconstructions spanning the last ~11,000 years. RSL rise was fastest (~7 mm/yr) during the early Holocene and slowed over time with the end of the deglaciation. During the pre-Industrial Common Era (i.e., 0–1800 CE), RSL rise (~0.7 to 1.1 mm/yr) was driven primarily by glacio-isostatic adjustment, though dampened by tectonic uplift along the Cape Fear Arch. Ocean/atmosphere dynamics caused centennial variability of up to ~0.6 mm/yr around the long-term rate. It is extremely likely (probability P=0.95) that 20th century RSL rise at Sand Point, NC, (2.8 ± 0.5 mm/yr) was faster than during any other century in at least 2,900 years. Projections based on a fusion of process models, statistical models, expert elicitation, and expert assessment indicate that RSL at Wilmington, NC, is very likely (P=0.90) to rise by 42–132 cm between 2000 and 2100 under the high-emissions RCP 8.5 pathway. Under all emission pathways, 21st century RSL rise is very likely (P>0.90) to be faster than during the 20th century. Due to RSL rise, under RCP 8.5, the current ‘1-in-100 year’ flood is expected at Wilmington in ~30 of the 50 years between 2050-2100.     

Present-day Horizontal Mobility in the Serbian Part of the Pannonian Basin; Inferences from the Geometric Analysis of Deformations

In tectonically complex environments, such as the Pannonian Basin surrounded by the Alps–Dinarides and Carpathians orogens, monitoring of recent deformations represents very challenging matter. Efficient quantification of active continental deformations demands the use of a multidisciplinary approach, including neotectonic, seismotectonic and geodetic methods. The present-day tectonic mobility in the Pannonian Basin is predominantly controlled by the northward movement of the Adria micro-plate, which has produced compressional stresses that were party accommodated by the Alps-Dinarides thrust belt and partly transferred towards its hinterland. Influence of thus induced stresses on the recent strain field, deformations and tectonic mobility in the southern segment of the Pannonian Basin has been investigated using GPS measurements of the horizontal mobility in the Vojvodina area (northern Serbia).     

Seismic prediction method of multiscale fractured reservoir

Common prestack fracture prediction methods cannot clearly distinguish multiplescale fractures. In this study, we propose a prediction method for macro- and mesoscale fractures based on fracture density distribution in reservoirs. First, we detect the macroscale fractures (larger than 1/4 wavelength) using the multidirectional coherence technique that is based on the curvelet transform and the mesoscale fractures (1/4–1/100 wavelength) using the seismic azimuthal anisotropy technique and prestack attenuation attributes, e.g., frequency attenuation gradient. Then, we combine the obtained fracture density distributions into a map and evaluate the variably scaled fractures. Application of the method to a seismic physical model of a fractured reservoir shows that the method overcomes the problem of discontinuous fracture density distribution generated by the prestack seismic azimuthal anisotropy method, distinguishes the fracture scales, and identifies the fractured zones accurately.     

Restrain of a seismically isolated bridge by external stoppers

The current design of seismically isolated bridges usually combines the use of bearings and stoppers, as a second line of defence. The stoppers allow the development of the in-service movements of the bridge deck, without transmitting significant loads to the piers and their foundations, while during earthquake they transmit the entire seismic action. Despite the fact that stoppers, which restrain the transverse seismic movements of the deck, are used frequently in seismically isolated bridges, the use of longitudinal stoppers is relatively rare, mainly due to the large in-service constraint movements of bridges. The present paper proposes a new type of external longitudinal stoppers, which are installed in stiff sub-structures-boundaries, aiming at limiting the bridge seismic movements. The parametric investigation, which was conducted in order to identify the seismic efficiency of the external stoppers, showed that the interaction of the bridge with the stiff boundaries can lead to significant reductions in the seismic movements of the bridge. Serviceability is appropriately arranged in the paper by expansion joints and approach slabs.     

Time domain method for calculating free field motion of a layered half-space subjected to obliquely incident body waves

In numerical simulation of wave scattering under oblique incident body waves using the finite element method, the free field motion at the incident lateral boundary induced by the background layered half-space complicates the computational area. In order to replace the complex frequency domain method, a time-domain method to calculate the free field motion of a layered half-space subjected to oblique incident body waves is developed in this paper. The new method decouples the equations of motion used in the finite element method and offers an interpolation formula of the free field motion. This formula is based on the fact that the apparent horizontal velocity of the free field motion is constant and can be calculated exactly. Both the theoretical analysis and numerical results demonstrate that the proposed method offers a high degree of accuracy.     

Jellyfish patch formation investigated by aerial photography and drifter experiment

Jellyfish patch formation is investigated by conducting a drifter experiment combined with aerial photography of a sustained patch of the moon jellyfish in Hokezu Bay, Japan. Jellyfish patches are aggregations of individuals that are caused by a combination of swimming (active influence) and advection by currents (passive influence). The drifter experiment involved the injection of 49 drifters around a distinct surface patch of jellyfish within an area of approximately 300 m × 300 m. The drifters’ motion, caused only by the passive influence, was recorded in a series of 38 aerial photographs taken over approximately 1 h. The ambient uniform current field larger than the patch scale was estimated from the movement of the centroid position of drifters, while the distribution of horizontal divergence and relative vorticity around the patch was estimated from the time-derivative in areas of triangles formed by the drifters. The centroid positions of both drifters and patches moved stably toward the bay head at different speeds. The difference vector between the patch and drifter centroids was directed to the sun, and was opposite to the ambient current. The distributions of vorticity and divergence around patches exhibited inhomogeneity within the patch scale, and the drifters in this nonuniform current field aggregated near the convergence area within 1 h. The results suggest that horizontal patch formation is predominantly influenced by passive factors at the surface of Hokezu Bay. Furthermore, the upward swimming against downwelling may make sustained patch in surface layer.     

Tectonic control over topography and channel sedimentation across the forearc slope of the southern Kurile Trench

A high-resolution seismic survey covering more than 2,000 km² has revealed the processes responsible for the slope morphology and channel sedimentation across the forearc slope-basin of the Kurile Arc–NE Japan Arc collision zone, offshore from Tokachi (Hokkaido, Japan). The dominant slope contours parallel the trench but, in the middle and lower reaches of the southern slope, contours are convex-shaped with an offshore trend. This sector of the slope is traversed diagonally by the Hiroo submarine channel. The offshore-trending convex contours and the channel course have developed through the interplay of tectonic and sedimentary processes, including the development of anticlines, anticline-induced lobe sedimentation and channel avulsion. In its upper reaches, the channel is restricted by a topographic low associated with NNW–SSE-trending anticlines which developed within the upper and middle slope sectors during late Miocene uplift. The uplift timing and trend of these anticlines indicate that they resulted from collision, the channel sedimentology and slope morphology of the middle and lower slopes having been influenced by Pliocene uplift of NE–SW-trending anticlines. The trends of these anticlines parallel those of the Kurile Trench. The Pliocene and early Pleistocene strata of the middle and lower slopes consist of ponded lobe sediments deposited along the palaeo-Hiroo submarine channel on the landward side of the anticlines. As a lobe pile accumulated, the channel thalweg shifted to the north of the stack, allowing the channel to bypass the topographic high formed by the growing stack. Thick levee deposits built up along the channel course during the late Pleistocene and Holocene. These levees, along with the Pliocene and early Pleistocene lobes, are reflected in the present-day sigmoid-shaped, convex offshore-trending contours. Thus, the interplay of subduction- and collision-related anticlines, tectonic-related channel ponding, and avulsion has contributed to the slope morphology of the southern Kurile Trench.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Cochlodinium polykrikoides</Emphasis> red tide detection in the South Sea of Korea using spectral classification of MODIS data

To distinguish true red tide water (particularly Cochlodinium polykrikoides blooms) from non-red tide water (false satellite high chlorophyll water) in the South Sea of Korea, we developed a systematic classification method using spectral information from MODIS level products and applied it to five different harmful algal bloom events. Red tide and nonred tide waters were classified based on four different criteria. The first step revealed that the radiance peaks of potential red tide water occurred at 555 and 678 nm. The second step separated optically different waters that were influenced by relatively low and high contributions of colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) (including detritus) to chlorophyll. The third and fourth steps discriminated red tide water from non-red tide water based on the blue-to-green ratio in areas with lower and higher contributions of CDOM to chlorophyll, respectively. After applying the red tide classification (using the four criteria), the spectral response of the red tide water, which is influenced by pigment concentration, showed different slopes for the blue and green bands (lower slope at blue bands and higher slope at green bands). The opposite result was found for non-red tide water, due to decreasing phytoplankton absorption and increasing detritus/CDOM absorption at blue bands. The results were well matched with the discoloration of water (blue to dark red/brown) and delineated the areal coverage of C. polykrikoides blooms, revealing the nature of spatial and temporal variations in red tides. This simple spectral classification method led to increase user accuracy for C. polykrikoides and non-red tide blooms (>46% and >97%) and provided a more reliable and robust identification of red tides over a wide range of oceanic environments than was possible using chlorophyll a concentration, chlorophyll anomaly, fluorescence analysis, or proposed red tide detection algorithms.     

Uptake mechanism of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> in the Kuroshio Extension region in an ocean general circulation model

The uptake mechanism of anthropogenic CO₂ in the Kuroshio Extension is examined by a Lagrangian approach using a biogeochemical model embedded in an ocean general circulation model. It is found that the uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ is caused mainly by the increase of pCO₂ dependency of seawater on temperature, which is caused by greater dissolved inorganic carbon concentration in the modern state than in the pre-industrial state. In contrast with the view of previous studies, the effect of the vertical entrainment, which brings waters that last contacted the atmosphere with the past lower CO₂ concentration, is comparatively small. Winter uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ increases with the rise of the atmospheric CO₂ level, while summer uptake is relatively stable, resulting in a larger seasonal cycle of the uptake. This increase is significant, especially in the Kuroshio Extension region. It is newly suggested that this increase in the Kuroshio Extension region is largely caused by the combined effects of the increased pCO₂ dependency of the sea water on the temperature and the seasonal difference in cooling.     

Characteristics and regional classification of the copepod community in Ariake Bay with note on comparison with 3 decades ago

Ariake Bay, Kyushu Island, has recently exhibited environmental degradation in the form of red tides and anoxic bottom water. To determine the characteristics and regional classification of the copepod community, zooplankton surveys were made throughout the bay in three cruises each in October 2004, January 2005 and March 2009 by vertical tows of a 0.1-mm-mesh plankton net. Oithona davisae was the most abundant in January and March, and Microsetella norvegica in October. Cluster analysis revealed that the copepod community from each cruise was generally separated into the inner to eastern-middle region and the western-middle to mouth region. A SIMPER analysis revealed that dissimilarity between the groups and similarity within each group were mainly due to the dominant species, but the similarities within the outer-region group in January and March were mostly contributed by Paracalanus parvus s.l. A non-metric multidimensional scaling with bubble plots of environmental variables and a BIOENV analysis showed that transparency was more different between the two groups than temperature and salinity. As compared with two similarly sized, eutrophic bays (Tokyo and Osaka Bays), Ariake Bay differs from Tokyo Bay in the dominance of M. norvegica and from Osaka Bay in the high abundance of O. davisae even in the colder season. The dominant species and the regional classification of the copepod community in the bay were similar to those in the studies in the 1970s, suggesting that the copepod community has not notably changed during the last 3 decades.