Solar shield: forecasting and mitigating space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission systems

In this paper, central elements of the Solar Shield project, launched to design and establish an experimental system capable of forecasting the space weather effects on high-voltage power transmission system, are described. It will be shown how Sun–Earth system data and models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) are used to generate two-level magnetohydrodynamics-based forecasts providing 1–2 day and 30–60 min lead-times. The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) represents the end-user, the power transmission industry, in the project. EPRI integrates the forecast products to an online display tool providing information about space weather conditions to the member power utilities. EPRI also evaluates the economic impacts of severe storms on power transmission systems. The economic analysis will quantify the economic value of the generated forecasting system. The first version of the two-level forecasting system is currently running in real-time at CCMC. An initial analysis of the system’s capabilities has been completed, and further analysis is being carried out to optimize the performance of the system. Although the initial results are encouraging, definite conclusions about system’s performance can be given only after more extensive analysis, and implementation of an automatic evaluation process using forecasted and observed geomagnetically induced currents from different nodes of the North American power transmission system. The final output of the Solar Shield will be a recommendation for an optimal forecasting system that may be transitioned into space weather operations.     

Ag-rich Tetrahedrite in the El Zancudo Deposit,Colombia: Occurrence,Chemical Compositions and Genetic Temperatures

Chemical compositions of tetrahedrite—Ag-rich tetrahedrite—freibergite solid solutions (Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss) and homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions in quartz and carbonates of seventeen samples from nine veins in the El Zancudo deposit, Antioquia, Colombia, were investigated to reveal the origin of silver in Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss, to derive their crystallization temperatures and to examine the relationship between chemical compositions of Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss and their crystallization temperatures. The ores consist of arsenopyrite, pyrite, sphalerite, Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss, galena, boulangerite, andorite, owyheeite, diaphorite, jamesonite, miargyrite, bournonite, chalcopyrite, and electrum. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss forms about 10 volume % of the total ores and is one of the most common and widely distributed sulfosalts in this deposit. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss is rich in Ag (1.13 to 31.02 wt%) and Sb (22.93 to 29.82 wt%), and poor in As (0.06 to 2.43 wt%), consistent with the reported incompatibilities of Ag and As in Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss. The Zn/(Zn + Fe)-, Ag/(Ag + Cu)- and Sb/(Sb + As + Bi)-atomic ratios exhibit some variations among the veins. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss with higher Ag/(Ag + Cu) ratios coexist with diaphorite, whereas those with lower ratios are not associated with this sulfosalt. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss in the assemblages of Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss+ sphalerite and of Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss+ bournonite + galena shows no Zn ↔ Fe and Cu ↔ Ag variations between core and rim, respectively, negating the possibility of solid state reaction during cooling. Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss is thus regarded as primary phase. Homogenization temperatures of primary fluid inclusions in quartz and carbonates co-existing with Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss define the mineralization temperatures of 134 to 263°C. Independent crystallization temperatures of Ag-rich tetrahedrite estimated based on Zn/(Zn + Fe) and Ag/(Ag + Cu) ratios of the Ag-rich tetrahedrite_ss associated with silver minerals such as miargyrite, andorite and diaphorite using Sack's thermochemical database lie in a range between 170 and ∼250°C. Both results are thus in good agreement.     

Linking geomorphology and hydrodynamics: a case study from Península Valdés, Patagonia, Argentina

A case study is presented to assess the relevance of geomorphology in hydrogeological phenomena in an arid coastal area in the Argentinean extra-Andean Patagonia (Península Valdés) with an average rainfall of 232 mm/year and a soil moisture deficit of about 472 mm/year. Various geomorphic units were identified by interpreting Landsat 7 satellite images processed with ER Mapper software and then surveyed in the field, as well as by geological characterization. The hydrodynamic analysis was based on a survey of 89 wells, the construction of equipotential maps, and the interpretation of pumping-test results by a non-equilibrium method. The hydrochemical characterization was based on chemical tests analyzed with the Easy_Quim 6.0 application. The combination of geomorphological, geological, hydrodynamic and hydrochemical elements allowed the definition of hydromorphological units that are typical of recharge, circulation and discharge areas, the latter both for coastal and inland areas in wetlands (salt pans) with elevations to ?40 m relative to sea level. These units and the criteria used for their definition allow immediate recognition of hydrogeological phenomena in arid regions such as the extra-Andean Patagonia, with low information density but with near-optimal satellite imaging of landforms due to the lack of vegetation cover.     

The impact of precipitation on speed–flow relationships along a UK motorway corridor

Although the fundamental traffic diagram provides the characteristics of a typical road traffic speed–flow relationship, little consideration has been given to the impact of adverse weather conditions on the relationship and the subsequent impact on local speed–flow. For the first time, this study uses precipitation radar along with a state-of-the art traffic information system to ascertain the relationship between speed–flow and precipitation on a UK transport corridor at the local (junction to junction) scale. It is evident that precipitation causes a significant reduction in speed and maximum flow on many links of the corridor as well as a downward reduction in the overall speed-flow relationship. With increased instances of heavy precipitation predicted in the UK as a result of climate change, these findings highlight the subsequent impact on journey travel times and associated economic costs.     

The critical behaviour of a power law between preseismic electric signals and earthquakes of different mechanism in Greece and Japan

The consistency of the critical exponent in the power law relation between the stress drop of the earthquake and the lead time of the precursory seismic electric signal is checked using new data from the recent M _w 4.9 earthquake of strike-slip mechanism that occurred on 12 November 2013 in northern Evia island, Greece and the megathrust M _w 9.0 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011, in Japan. For the first case, the derived exponent is in excellent agreement with previous ones obtained from all non thrust events analysed by the author and matches the value of critical exponent for fracture. On the other hand, the megathrust Tohoku earthquake follows the behaviour of all thrust events studied by the author, and thus, the calculated exponent significantly deviates from this critical value. The different behaviour between non thrust and thrust-type events could be attributed to the fact that thrust mechanism earthquakes usually occur in collision or subduction zones which are characterised by high accumulation of strain. However, a larger number of thrust events are required in order to obtain reliable results and shed light in the above experimental findings.     

A physical model for the precursory magnetic anomalies of the M5.4 Alum Rock and M6.0 Parkfield earthquakes

Here, we propose an alternative physical model, based on the concept of criticality, for the explanation of the observed magnetic signals prior to the M6.0 Parkfield and the M5.4 Alum Rock earthquakes. Motivated by an analogous experience from major earthquakes in Greece, where both magnetic field variations and seismic electric signals were also recorded few weeks before the main shock, we suggest that in all these cases, similar dynamic processes characterized by critical behaviour should govern the corresponding pre-focal areas when the relevant precursory signals emerged.     

Aspects on the origin of the precursory magnetic anomalies of the Mw 6.4 Aquila earthquake

An anomalous behaviour of the scaling exponent derived from the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) of the time series of low frequency variations of the horizontal and vertical magnetic field components has been recently reported as being observed 2 months prior to the Mw 6.3 earthquake on 6 April 2009, close to L’Aquila city, Italy. Here, we suggest a possible physical explanation of this effect based on the experience from similar measurements in Greece. In particular, for example, we compare these observations associated with Aquila earthquake with the ones of the Mw 6.6 earthquake on 13 May 1995 at Kozani-Grevena, Greece where both magnetic field variations and seismic electric signals (SES) were recorded. Almost 1 month before the latter earthquake, anomalous variations in both electric and magnetic field were detected, the time series of that were analysed by means of DFA and led to an exponent close to unity. Similarly, the calculated DFA exponent for the Aquila earthquake time series of the anomalous magnetic field variations 2 months before the main shock was also found close to unity. These results could imply that in the case of Aquila, according to the Maxwell’s laws, one should expect to observe simultaneously with the magnetic signal an associated SES activity, provided that an appropriate station to monitoring the earth’s electric field variations in the same area was available. Hence, it seems that similar underlying non-linear dynamic processes in mechanical and as well as electromagnetic sense, with features of criticality, dominated in both pre-focal areas.     

The state of the environment in Mexico

The present work evaluates the state of the environment in Mexico based on indicators of the present status of the country’s natural resource management, social and economical conditions and anthropogenic modifications. The Mexican environment is interpreted as a spatially open system having a historical character that is essentially determined by the continual interaction between nature, society and economy. The landscape approach is followed, considering as units of territorial analysis each one of the 145 biophysical environmental units included in the national physiographic regionalization. The assessment of 16 indicators for each biophysical environmental unit was made considering their regional environmental integrity problems, the degree of disarticulation of their structure and function, and the alteration of their territorial structure, all of which determine whether or not they accomplish their environmental functions and achieve environmental stability. The classification of the state of the environment included 5 categories in 8 combinations represented in the map of the state of the environment in Mexico for the year 2008. The map shows that nearly 47.10% of the country’s surface has an environmental status ranging between unstable and critical, the problematic areas being mostly concentrated in the southeast and center of the national territory.     

Mapping collective human activity in an urban environment based on mobile phone data

Identifying and characterizing variations of human activity – specifically changes in intensity and similarity – in urban environments provide insights into the social component of those eminently complex systems. Using large volumes of user-generated mobile phone data, we derive mobile communication profiles that we use as a proxy for the collective human activity. In this article, geocomputational methods and geovisual analytics such as self-organizing maps (SOM) are used to explore the variations of these profiles, and its implications for collective human activity. We evaluate the merits of SOM as a cross-dimensional clustering technique and derived temporal trajectories of variations within the mobile communication profiles. The trajectories’ characteristics such as length are discussed, suggesting spatial variations in intensity and similarity in collective human activity. Trajectories are linked back to the geographic space to map the spatial and temporal variation of trajectory characteristics. Different trajectory lengths suggest that mobile phone activity is correlated with the spatial configuration of the city, and so at different times of the day. Our approach contributes to the understanding of the space-time social dynamics within urban environments.     

Groundwater geochemistry of the Chihuahua City region in the Rio Conchos Basin (northern Mexico) and implications for water resources management

The Chihuahua City region, located in the semiarid-arid northern highlands of Mexico, has experienced intensive groundwater abstraction during the last 40 years to meet water demands in the region. A geochemical survey was carried out to investigate the evolution from baseline to modern conditions of a 130-km flow path including the El Sauz–Chihuahua–Aldama–San Diego de Alcalá regions. The research approach included the use of major chemical elements, chlorofluorocarbons and environmental isotope (¹⁸O, ²H, ¹³C and ¹⁴C) tracers. Stable isotopes indicate that groundwater evolves from the evaporation of local rainfall and surface water. Groundwater located at the lower end of the flow section is up to 6000 years old and older groundwater in the order of 9000 years BP was found in a deep well located in the upper part of the flow system, implying contribution from a neighbour basin. The background groundwater chemistry upstream of Chihuahua City results from feldspar weathering. Beyond Chihuahua City the chemical conditions are strongly modified owing to disposal of sewage from public and industrial water supplies into the Rio Chuviscar, subsequent allocation of this water to agricultural irrigation areas and direct infiltration under the river bed. As a consequence, anions like chloride and sulphate are mainly related to surface sources. Nitrate is controlled in part by sewage from public supply and industry and in part by agricultural practices. Arsenic and fluoride are related to weathering of rock formations of local mineralized ranges and subsequent enrichment of the basin-fill by magmatic processes. The results of this study have implications for groundwater management in an arid region that depends entirely on groundwater for domestic, industrial and agricultural water consumption. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.