Sea-level rise impact models and environmental conservation: A review of models and their applications

Conservation managers and policy makers need tools to identify coastal habitats and human communities that are vulnerable to sea-level rise. Coastal impact models can help determine the vulnerability of areas and populations to changes in sea level. Model outputs may be used to guide decisions about the location and design of future protected areas and development, and to prioritize adaptation of existing protected area investments. This paper reviews state-of-the-art coastal impact models that determine sea-level rise vulnerability and provides guidance to help managers and policy makers determine the appropriateness of various models at local, regional, and global scales. There are a variety of models, each with strengths and weaknesses, that are suited for different management objectives. We find important trade-offs exist regarding the cost and capacity needed to run and interpret the models, the range of impacts they cover, and regarding the spatial scale that each operates which may overstate impacts at one end and underestimate impacts at the other. Understanding these differences is critical for managers and policy makers to make informed decisions about which model to use and how to interpret and apply the results.     

Special Issue Introduction: Adding insult to injury: Climate change and the inequities of climate intervention

Climate change will injure vulnerable communities. In response, coordinated global action has emerged to mitigate climate change, to gauge and map climate-related risks, and to plan for adaptation, which in turn has opened new avenues of funding, power, knowledge and opportunity. The identification of climate risks, analysis and diffusion of ‘impact’ scenarios, incorporation of carbon into economic regimes, and interventions to enhance adaptive capacity will necessarily be experienced differently by different groups. As climate-related crises produce winners and losers, so may discourses and plans made to avert such crises. In the process both the bio-physical events and the social responses shape and reshape social stratification and the distribution of risk. They produce new inequalities and needs for new kinds of responses to guard against injustice. From the emergence of desalination water projects and contested water access, to relocation planning in the Arctic and the South Pacific due to sea-level rise, to increasingly centralized forest management; mitigation and adaptation responses and interventions create their own critical outcomes. This essay and the articles in this special issue examine some new opportunities and risks associated with climate-change discourses and interventions. This special issue shows that vulnerable communities may be at risk of material injury following climate change or climate change intervention; and, be further insulted and injured by lack of representation and recognition, and by misrecognition as simplified, stereotyped victims in local, national and international climate conversations. Using a mixture of theoretical insight and case study research, this collection of articles explores the injuries of climate change as it applies to both direct physical stress scenarios and exposure to adaptation and mitigation policies and planning, as well as the discursive insults of being discounted, stereotyped, or ignored.     

Crowdsourcing The National Map

Using crowdsourcing techniques, the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) project known as “The National Map Corps (TNMCorps)” encourages citizen scientists to collect and edit data about man-made structures in an effort to provide accurate and authoritative map data for the USGS National Geospatial Program’s web-based The National Map. VGI is not new to the USGS, but past efforts have been hampered by available technologies. Building on lessons learned, TNMCorps volunteers are successfully editing 10 different structure types in all 50 states as well as Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.     

Environmental tolerance of Caprella mutica: implications for its distribution as a marine non-native species

Physiological tolerances limit the distribution of marine species, with geographical ranges being set by environmental factors, such as temperature and salinity, which affect the rates of vital processes and survival of marine ectotherms. The physiological tolerances of the non-native marine amphipod Caprella mutica were investigated in laboratory experiments. Adult C. mutica were collected from a fish farm on the west coast of Scotland and exposed to a range of temperatures and salinities for 48 h. C. mutica were tolerant of a broad range of temperature and salinity conditions, with 100% mortality at 30 degrees C (48 h LT50, 28.3+/-0.4 degrees C), and salinities lower than 16 (48 h LC50, 18.7+/-0.2). Although lethargic at low temperatures (2 degrees C), no mortality was observed, and the species is known to survive at temperatures as low as -1.8 degrees C. The upper LC(50) was greater than the highest salinity tested (40), thus it is unlikely that salinity will limit the distribution of C. mutica in open coastal waters. However, the species will be excluded from brackish water environments such as the heads of sea lochs or estuaries. The physiological tolerances of C. mutica are beyond the physical conditions experienced in its native or introduced range and are thus unlikely to be the primary factors limiting its present distribution and future spread.     

Leaf wax δ2H and varve-thickness climate proxies from proglacial lake sediments, Baffin Island, Arctic Canada

We present a multiproxy paleoclimate record using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes (??²H_wax) and varve thickness from Arctic proglacial lake sediments. We also provide one of the first evaluations of the utility of ??²H_wax as a paleoclimate proxy in Arctic proglacial lakes. We compare varve thickness and ??²H_wax at sub-decadal resolution from 1948 to 2004 AD, and at sub-centennial resolution from 1450 to 2004 AD. Varve thickness and ??²H_wax both contain large interannual variability and are anti-correlated during the late twentieth century, suggesting that both proxies respond rapidly, but by different mechanisms, to catchment-scale forcings. At longer time scales, varve thickness exhibits a strong response to Little Ice Age cooling (1661?C1827 AD in this record) but does not show evidence for twentieth century warming recorded throughout the Arctic. ??²H_wax does record regional-scale temperature changes, with more ²H-depleted values during the Little Ice Age and an abrupt change to more ²H-enriched values in the twentieth century. This corresponds well with a recent Arctic-wide temperature reconstruction in which the seventeenth century is the coldest interval, and the twentieth century is the warmest interval. Our results suggest that ??²H_wax is a promising proxy that can be applied at high resolution in proglacial Arctic lakes.     

Mesoscale raised rim depressions (MRRDs) on Earth: A review of the characteristics,processes, and spatial distributions of analogs for Mars

Fields of mesoscale raised rim depressions (MRRDs) of various origins are found on Earth and Mars. Examples include rootless cones, mud volcanoes, collapsed pingos, rimmed kettle holes, and basaltic ring structures. Correct identification of MRRDs on Mars is valuable because different MRRD types have different geologic and/or climatic implications and are often associated with volcanism and/or water, which may provide locales for biotic or prebiotic activity. In order to facilitate correct identification of fields of MRRDs on Mars and their implications, this work provides a review of common terrestrial MRRD types that occur in fields. In this review, MRRDs by formation mechanism, including hydrovolcanic (phreatomagmatic cones, basaltic ring structures), sedimentological (mud volcanoes), and ice-related (pingos, volatile ice-block forms) mechanisms. For each broad mechanism, we present a comparative synopsis of (i) morphology and observations, (ii) physical formation processes, and (iii) published hypothesized locations on Mars. Because the morphology for MRRDs may be ambiguous, an additional tool is provided for distinguishing fields of MRRDs by origin on Mars, namely, spatial distribution analyses for MRRDs within fields on Earth. We find that MRRDs have both distinguishing and similar characteristics, and observation that applies both to their mesoscale morphology and to their spatial distribution statistics. Thus, this review provides tools for distinguishing between various MRRDs, while highlighting the utility of the multiple working hypotheses approach.     

Pingos on Earth and Mars

Pingos are massive ice-cored mounds that develop through pressurized groundwater flow mechanisms. Pingos and their collapsed forms are found in periglacial and paleoperiglacial terrains on Earth, and have been hypothesized for a wide variety of locations on Mars. This literature review of pingos on Earth and Mars first summarizes the morphology of terrestrial pingos and their geologic contexts. That information is then used to asses hypothesized pingos on Mars. Pingo-like forms (PLFs) in Utopia Planitia are the most viable candidates for pingos or collapsed pingos. Other PLFs hypothesized in the literature to be pingos may be better explained with other mechanisms than those associated with terrestrial-style pingos.     

Using helicopter electromagnetic data to predict groundwater quality in fractured crystalline bedrock in a semi-arid region, Northeast Brazil

Geostatistical modeling, using airborne and borehole electromagnetic data, was used to estimate electrical conductivity in groundwater within fractured paragneisses and migmatites in a semi-arid climate in northeastern Brazil. Despite the geologic heterogeneity of crystalline aquifers, the use of high resolution helicopter electromagnetic (HEM) data enabled the characterization of groundwater electrical conductivity where data from drilled wells were insufficient. The tacit assumption is that HEM measurements can be used to relate rock electrical conductivity to groundwater electrical conductivity. In this study, the HEM data were used as an external drift variable in non-stationary estimation and stochastic simulation to identify the variability of groundwater electrical conductivity. Validation tests, comparing predicted values for groundwater conductivity with measurements in new wells, confirmed the success of these models in locating fresh groundwater sources in crystalline bedrock.     

Vulnerability and adaptation in a dryland community of the Elqui Valley, Chile

Livelihoods in drylands are already challenged by the demands of climate variability, and climate change is expected to have further implications for water resource availability in these regions. This paper characterizes the vulnerability of an irrigation-dependent agricultural community located in the Elqui River Basin of Northern Chile to water and climate-related conditions in light of climate change. The paper documents the exposures and sensitivities faced by the community in light of current water shortages, and identifies their ability to manage these exposures under a changing climate. The IPCC identifies potentially increased aridity in this region with climate change; furthermore, the Elqui River is fed by snowmelt and glaciers, and its flows will be affected by a warming climate. Community vulnerability occurs within a broader physical, economic, political and social context, and vulnerability in the community varies amongst occupations, resource uses and accessibility to water resources, making some more susceptible to changing conditions in the future. This case study highlights the need for adaptation to current land and water management practices to maintain livelihoods in the face of changes many people are not expecting.