Update earthquake risk assessment in Cairo,Egypt

The Cairo earthquake (12 October 1992; m _b  = 5.8) is still and after 25 years one of the most painful events and is dug into the Egyptians memory. This is not due to the strength of the earthquake but due to the accompanied losses and damages (561 dead; 10,000 injured and 3000 families lost their homes). Nowadays, the most frequent and important question that should rise is “what if this earthquake is repeated today.” In this study, we simulate the same size earthquake (12 October 1992) ground motion shaking and the consequent social-economic impacts in terms of losses and damages. Seismic hazard, earthquake catalogs, soil types, demographics, and building inventories were integrated into HAZUS-MH to produce a sound earthquake risk assessment for Cairo including economic and social losses. Generally, the earthquake risk assessment clearly indicates that “the losses and damages may be increased twice or three times” in Cairo compared to the 1992 earthquake. The earthquake risk profile reveals that five districts (Al-Sahel, El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr sharq) lie in high seismic risks, and three districts (Manshiyat Naser, El-Waily, and Wassat (center)) are in low seismic risk level. Moreover, the building damage estimations reflect that Gharb is the highest vulnerable district. The analysis shows that the Cairo urban area faces high risk. Deteriorating buildings and infrastructure make the city particularly vulnerable to earthquake risks. For instance, more than 90 % of the estimated buildings damages are concentrated within the most densely populated (El Basateen, Dar El-Salam, Gharb, and Madinat Nasr Gharb) districts. Moreover, about 75 % of casualties are in the same districts. Actually, an earthquake risk assessment for Cairo represents a crucial application of the HAZUS earthquake loss estimation model for risk management. Finally, for mitigation, risk reduction, and to improve the seismic performance of structures and assure life safety and collapse prevention in future earthquakes, a five-step road map has been purposed.     

Constraint energy minimizing generalized multiscale finite element method in the mixed formulation

This paper presents a novel mass-conservative mixed multiscale method for solving flow equations in heterogeneous porous media. The media properties (the permeability) contain multiple scales and high contrast. The proposed method solves the flow equation in a mixed formulation on a coarse grid by constructing multiscale basis functions. The resulting velocity field is mass-conservative on the fine grid. Our main goal is to obtain first-order convergence in terms of the mesh size which is independent of local contrast. This is achieved, first, by constructing some auxiliary spaces, which contain global information that cannot be localized, in general. This is built on our previous work on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM). In the auxiliary space, multiscale basis functions corresponding to small (contrast-dependent) eigenvalues are selected. These basis functions represent the high-conductivity channels (which connect the boundaries of a coarse block). Next, we solve local problems to construct multiscale basis functions for the velocity field. These local problems are formulated in the oversampled domain, taking into account some constraints with respect to auxiliary spaces. The latter allows fast spatial decay of local solutions and, thus, allows taking smaller oversampled regions. The number of basis functions depends on small eigenvalues of the local spectral problems. Moreover, multiscale pressure basis functions are needed in constructing the velocity space. Our multiscale spaces have a minimal dimension, which is needed to avoid contrast dependence in the convergence. The method’s convergence requires an oversampling of several layers. We present an analysis of our approach. Our numerical results confirm that the convergence rate is first order with respect to the mesh size and independent of the contrast.     

Uranium–lead ages of apatite from iron oxide ores of the Bafq District,East-Central Iran

Iron oxide–apatite (IOA) deposits, often referred to as Kiruna-type iron ore deposits, are known to have formed from the Proterozoic to the Tertiary. They are commonly associated with calc–alkaline volcanic rocks and regional- to deposit-scale metasomatic alteration. In the Bafq District in east Central Iran, economic iron oxide–apatite deposits occur within felsic volcanic tuffs and volcanosedimentary sequences of Early Cambrian age. In order to constrain the age of formation of these ores and their relationship with the Early Cambrian magmatic event, we have determined the U–Pb apatite age for five occurrences in the Bafq District. In a ²⁰⁶Pb/²³⁸U vs. ²⁰⁷Pb/²³⁵U diagram, apatite free of or poor in inclusions of other minerals plots along the Concordia between 539 and 527 Ma with four out of five samples from one deposit clustering at the upper end of this range. For this deposit, we interpret this cluster to represent the age of apatite formation, whereas the spread towards younger ages may reflect either minor Pb loss or several events of IOA formation. Apatite with inclusions of monazite (±xenotime) yields disturbed systems with inclusions having developed after formation of the iron ore–apatite deposits, possibly as late as 130–140 Ma ago. Obtained apatite ages confirms that (IOA) and the apatite-rich rocks (apatites) of the Bafq district formed coevally with the Early Cambrian magmatic (-metasomatic) events.     

Some Insights into Topographic,Elastic and Self-gravitation Interaction in Modelling Ground Deformation and Gravity Changes in Active Volcanic Areas

Surface displacements and gravity changes due to volcanic sources are influenced by medium properties. We investigate topographic, elastic and self-gravitation interaction in order to outline the major factors that are significant in data modelling. While elastic-gravitational models can provide a suitable approximation to problems of volcanic loading in areas where topographic relief is negligible, for prominent volcanoes the rough topography could affect deformation and gravity changes to a greater extent than self-gravitation. This fact requires the selection, depending on local relief, of a suitable model for use in the interpretation of surface precursors of volcanic activity. We use the three-dimensional Indirect Boundary Element Method to examine the effects of topography on deformation and gravity changes in models of magma chamber inflation/deflation. Topography has a significant effect on predicted surface deformation and gravity changes. Both the magnitude and pattern of the geodetic signals are significantly different compared to half-space solutions. Thus, failure to account for topographic effects in areas of prominent relief can bias the estimate of volcanic source parameters, since the magnitude and pattern of deformation and gravity changes depend on such effects.     

Comparative analysis of Lake Urmia and Lake Van water level time series

Recent decline in Lake Urmia water level makes it crucial to consider this issue more seriously. For this purpose, comparison of water level in Lake Urmia with Lake Van in Turkey, which is in relatively similar geographic and climate conditions, can be an effective approach. To follow this objective, trend analysis, regime shift, and coherency analyses are implemented. The results showed negative trend in Lake Urmia water level for the past 20 years, while in Lake Van, the trend is positive. Moreover, correlation of the lake level variations versus the basin rainfall during three common periods, identified by the regime shifts analysis, illustrated a decreasing trend in the correlation. These changes can be attributed to non-climatic factors such as different allocation disciplines in two lake’s catchments. Finally, the coherency analysis showed significant annual and inter-annual frequencies common between the two lake levels. Herein, the short-term period relations are associated with lags, while in long term, they act simultaneously.     

Geoecology of ecosystem recovery at an inactive coal mine site,New Zealand

Ecological restoration of the Wangaloa coal mine in southern New Zealand is hindered by a range of geoecological factors. The site has some substrate acidification (down to pH 1) and acid rock drainage with discharge waters initially down to pH 4, although this has since risen to ca. pH 6. Surface and ground waters develop elevated sulfate (up to 700 mg/kg) during oxidation of pyrite in coal and quartz in waste rock. Coal has elevated boron content (up to 450 mg/kg) and surface waters on coal-rich waste rock have up to 6 mg/L dissolved boron. Evaporation causes formation of salt encrustations dominated by gypsum with minor boron salts. Boron is bioavailable and may be at toxic levels (>200 mg/kg) in some plants. Quartz-rich waste rock is readily eroded, and develops a cm-scale low-nutrient quartz pebble armouring layer with low water retention properties. All waste rocks including loess siltstone have low nutrient contents, and low moisture retention properties, that are barely sufficient for plant establishment. Native plants introduced to the site during rehabilitation have grown on loess substrate (up to fivefold increase in height over 3 years), with poor or no growth on coal-rich and quartz-rich substrates. In contrast, natural colonisation of manuka (Leptospermum scoparium) has been most effective at revegetation on even the most hostile substrates. This natural revegetation has been facilitated by islands of manuka established accidentally during 60 years of mining history. Manuka from local genetic stock is most viable for this revegetation, and introduced manuka seedlings have had a 70% mortality rate. Natural plant colonisation is the key step in overall ecosystem recovery, and invertebrates rapidly colonise beneath new shrubs irrespective of the nature of the substrate from vegetation islands that have high invertebrate numbers and species richness.     

Spatio-temporal trends of heavy metals and source apportionment in Tolo Harbour,Hong Kong

This study provided a picture of the spatial and temporal distributions of Cr, Co, Ni Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb in bottom sediments of Tolo Harbour. The concentrations of the eight heavy metals differed significantly between sites due to the poor tidal flushing in Tolo Harbour. The levels of Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were generally enriched in sediments from inner Tolo Harbour, while sediments from outer Tolo Harbour (Tolo Channel) had higher levels of Cr, Co and Ni. The redox sensitive element arsenic showed no distinct spatial pattern in Tolo Harbour. The decreasing levels of Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd in sediments with increasing distance from land demonstrated a typical diffusion pattern from land to the direction of sea. Two hot spots of Cu, Zn, Pb and Cd in sediments were located near Tai Po and Sha Tin new town, indicating that Cu, Zn, Pb and Zn were from land-derived sources. The sites with relatively high levels of Cr, Co and Ni in sediments were located in areas close to waste spoil in sea floor. The natural and anthropogenic inputs from Sha Tin and Tai Po to Tolo Harbour were mostly responsible for Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb enrichment in sediments from inner Tolo Harbour. The waste spoil in sea floor was believed to contribute to the Cr, Co and Ni in outer Tolo Harbour. The results of correlation coefficient between the eight heavy metals showed that Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were strongly positively correlated, and Cr, Co and Ni were also significantly correlated with each other. The best explanation of strong correlation was their similar source. As, however, is not well correlated with the other seven heavy metals. The average concentrations of Cu and Zn displayed general increasing trends from 1978 to 2006 in Tolo Harbour, while the mean levels of Cr and Pb displayed a substantial decrease from 1978 to 1987, then a slight increase after 1987. No distinct temporal trends of the concentrations of Ni and As were observed from 1978 due to the inconsecutive data. On the other hand, the increasing trends of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were observed since 1996.     

Paragenesis of unusual Fe-cordierite (sekaninaite)-bearing paralava and clinker from the Kuznetsk coal basin,Siberia, Russia

Sekaninaite (X_Fe > 0.5)-bearing paralava and clinker are the products of ancient combustion metamorphism in the western part of the Kuznetsk coal basin, Siberia. The combustion metamorphic rocks typically occur as clinker beds and breccias consisting of vitrified sandstone–siltstone clinker fragments cemented by paralava, resulting from hanging-wall collapse above burning coal seams and quenching. Sekaninaite–Fe-cordierite (X_Fe = 95–45) is associated with tridymite, fayalite, magnetite, ± clinoferrosilite and ±mullite in paralava and with tridymite and mullite in clinker. Unmelted grains of detrital quartz occur in both rocks (<3 vol% in paralavas and up to 30 vol% in some clinkers). Compositionally variable siliceous, K-rich peraluminous glass is <30% in paralavas and up to 85% in clinkers. The paralavas resulted from extensive fusion of sandstone–siltstone (clinker), and sideritic/Fe-hydroxide material contained within them, with the proportion of clastic sediments ≫ ferruginous component. Calculated dry liquidus temperatures of the paralavas are 1,120–1,050°C and 920–1,050°C for clinkers, with calculated viscosities at liquidus temperatures of 10^1.6–7.0 and 10^7.0–9.8 Pa s, respectively. Dry liquidus temperatures of glass compositions range between 920 and 1,120°C (paralava) and 920–960°C (clinker), and viscosities at these temperatures are 10^9.7–5.5 and 10^8.8–9.7 Pa s, respectively. Compared with worldwide occurrences of cordierite–sekaninaite in pyrometamorphic rocks, sekaninaite occurs in rocks with X_Fe (mol% FeO/(FeO + MgO)) > 0.8; sekaninaite and Fe-cordierite occur in rocks with X_Fe 0.6–0.8, and cordierite (X_Fe < 0.5) is restricted to rocks with X_Fe < 0.6. The crystal-chemical formula of an anhydrous sekaninaite based on the refined structure is | \textK_0.02 |(\textFe_1.54^{2 +} \textMg_0.40 \textMn_0.06 )_{\Upsigma 2.00}^M [(\textAl_1.98 \textFe_0.02^{2 +} \textSi_1.00 )_{\Upsigma 3.00}^T1 (\textSi_3.94 \textAl_2.04 \textFe_0.02^{2 +} )_{\Upsigma 6.00}^T2 \textO₁₈ ]. \left| {{\text{K}}_{0.02} } \right|({\text{Fe}}_{1.54}^{2 + } {\text{Mg}}_{0.40} {\text{Mn}}_{0.06} )_{\Upsigma 2.00}^{M} [({\text{Al}}_{1.98} {\text{Fe}}_{0.02}^{2 + } {\text{Si}}_{1.00} )_{\Upsigma 3.00}^{T1} ({\text{Si}}_{3.94} {\text{Al}}_{2.04} {\text{Fe}}_{0.02}^{2 + } )_{\Upsigma 6.00}^{T2} {\text{O}}_{18} ].     

Surface energy balance of Bayi Ice Cap in the middle of Qilian Mountains,China

Energy balance at the glacier surface is important for understanding the impacts of climate change on glaciers. Here, we analyzed the characteristics of the glacier surface energy fluxes along with their contributions to glacier melt on Bayi Ice Cap in Qilian Mountains by using a point-scale energy balance model. The half-hourly meteorological data from an automatic weather station (AWS) located on the glacier was used to drive the energy balance model. The model simulated results could accurately represent the mass-balance observations from the stake near the weather station during summer 2016. Our results showed the net radiation (86%) played an important role in the surface energy balance, and the contribution of the turbulent heat fluxes (14%) to the energy budget was relatively less important. A distinct behavior of energy balance, as compared to other continental glaciers in China (e.g., two adjacent glaciers Laohugou No. 12 Glacier and Qiyi Glacier), is the fact that a sustained period of positive turbulent latent flux exists on Bayi Ice Cap during August, causing faster melt rate in the month of August. Our study also presented the effect of frequent summer snowfall in slowing down surface melt by changing the surface albedo during the beginning of the melting season.     

Spatial and temporal constraints on regional-scale groundwater flow in the Pampa del Tamarugal Basin,Atacama Desert,Chile

Aquifers within the Pampa del Tamarugal Basin (Atacama Desert, northern Chile) are the sole source of water for the coastal city of Iquique and the economically important mining industry. Despite this, the regional groundwater system remains poorly understood. Although it is widely accepted that aquifer recharge originates as precipitation in the Altiplano and Andean Cordillera to the east, there remains debate on whether recharge is driven primarily by near-surface groundwater flow in response to periodic flood events or by basal groundwater flux through deep-seated basin fractures. In addressing this debate, the present study quantifies spatial and temporal variability in regional-scale groundwater flow paths at 20.5°S latitude by combining a two-dimensional model of groundwater and heat flow with field observations and δ¹⁸O isotope values in surface water and groundwater. Results suggest that both previously proposed aquifer recharge mechanisms are likely influencing aquifers within the Pampa del Tamarugal Basin; however, each mechanism is operating on different spatial and temporal scales. Storm-driven flood events in the Altiplano readily transmit groundwater to the eastern Pampa del Tamarugal Basin through near-surface groundwater flow on short time scales, e.g., 10⁰–10¹ years, but these effects are likely isolated to aquifers in the eastern third of the basin. In addition, this study illustrates a physical mechanism for groundwater originating in the eastern highlands to recharge aquifers and salars in the western Pampa del Tamarugal Basin over timescales of 10⁴–10⁵ years.