Analysis of tsunami impact scenarios at an oil refinery

This work analyses the potential consequences of two tsunami scenarios and their impacts on an oil refinery located in Sicily. Two credible tsunamis originating in the Tyrrhenian Sea were selected based on historical data. The potential for damage and hazardous materials releases resulting from the tsunami impacts to a refinery was assessed. The results obtained by the JRC tsunami propagation and inundation code HyFlux2 indicate that in both scenarios there would be eighteen storage tanks (of 43 located within 400 m from the shoreline) at the refinery subject to flooding. Water flow velocities were found to be generally low, <1 m/s, except for a central section of the refinery near the shoreline where the water flow velocities reach 3?C4 m/s. These results indicate that any damage would most likely occur due to buoyancy loads particularly in the western part of the facility where inundation levels are higher and storage tanks are less protected. Potential damage caused by impact of floating debris may be a problem in the central area of the refinery near the shoreline due to high flow velocities (3?C4 m/s) in both tsunami scenarios. Small hazardous materials releases could occur due to breakage of connected pipes and flanges caused by floating off of almost empty storage tanks or other equipment. Salt water intrusion could affect electrical equipment, such as control panels, pumps, and motors that are not raised above the inundation level. We conclude that in the two tsunami scenarios analysed, the risk to nearby residents and neighbouring facilities from potential hazardous materials releases, fires or explosions triggered by the tsunamis is likely to be small. Nonetheless, recommendations are made on prevention measures to reduce the risk of tsunami-triggered accidents and to mitigate their consequences if they do occur. The results of this study are limited by the uncertainty in the input data and most importantly by the accuracy of the elevation data and the model resolution.     

PheniX: a new vision for the hard X-ray sky

We are proposing a mission devoted to high energy X-ray astronomy that is based on a focusing telescope operating in the 1?C200?keV energy range but optimized for the hard X-ray range. The main scientific topics concern: Physics of compact objects: The proximity of compact objects provides a unique laboratory to study matter and radiation in extreme conditions of temperature and density in strong gravitational environment. The emission of high energy photons from these objects is far from being understood. The unprecedented sensitivity in the high energy domain will allow a precise determination of the non-thermal processes at work in the vicinity of compact objects. The full 1?C200?keV energy coverage will be ideal to disentangle the emission processes produced in the spacetime regions most affected by strong-gravity, as well as the physical links: disk?Cthermal emission?Ciron line?Ccomptonisation?Creflection?Cnon-thermal emission?Cjets. Neutron stars?Cmagnetic field?Ccyclotron lines: Time resolved spectroscopy (and polarimetry) at ultra-high sensitivity of AXP, milliseconds pulsars and magnetars will give new tools to study the role of the synchrotron processes at work in these objects. Cyclotron lines?Cdirect measurement of magnetic filed?Cequation of state constraints?Cshort bursts?Cgiant flares could all be studied with great details. AGN: The large sensitivity improvement will provide detailed spectral properties of the high energy emission of AGN??s. This will give a fresh look to the connection between accretion and jet emission and will provide a new understanding of the physical processes at work. Detection of high-redshift active nuclei in this energy range will allow to introduce an evolutionary aspect to high-energy studies of AGN, probing directly the origin of the Cosmic X-ray Background also in the non-thermal range (> 20?keV). Element formation?CSupernovae: The energy resolution achievable for this mission (<0.5?keV) and a large high energy effective area are ideally suited for the 44Ti line study (68 and 78?keV). This radioactive nuclei emission will give an estimate of their quantities and speed in their environment. In addition the study of the spatial structure and spectral emission of SNR will advance our knowledge of the dynamics of supernovae explosions, of particles acceleration mechanisms and how the elements are released in the interstellar medium. Instrumental design: The progress of X-ray focusing optics techniques allows a major step in the instrumental design: the collecting area becomes independent of the detection area. This drastically reduces the instrumental background and will open a new era. The optics will be based on depth-graded multi-layer mirrors in a Wolter I configuration. To obtain a significant effective area in the hundred of keV range a focal length in the 40?C50 meters range (attainable with a deployable mast) is needed. In addition such a mission could benefit from recent progress made on mirror coating. We propose to cover the 1?C200?keV energy range with a single detector, a double-sided Germanium strip detector operating at 80?K. The main features will be: (a) good energy resolution (.150?keV at 5?keV and <.5?keV at 100?keV), (b) 3 dimensional event localization with a low number of electronic chains, (c) background rejection by the 3D localization, (d) polarisation capabilities in the Compton regime.     

The 3 December 1828 moderate earthquake at the border between Belgium and Germany

On 3 December 1828 at half past six in the evening, the border region between Belgium and Germany was stricken by a moderate earthquake. Up to now, the available information on this event has been essentially provided by a few contemporaneous scientific studies. To better evaluate its impact, location and magnitude, we have searched for new original historical reports. We collected 57 additional witness testimonies, which complete those previously collected about the earthquake effects. Among the testimonies, we also retrieved a questionnaire sent by the Prussian government to local authorities with the purpose of quickly obtaining information on the earthquake effects in the western part of the kingdom of Prussia. This inquiry is the oldest of its kind that has been discovered to date in this part of Europe, suggesting a rare concern by a national authority about the seismic hazard, and prefiguring the seismic inquiries that scientific institutions use today. The analysis of these new data made it possible to evaluate the intensity in 50 cities out of the 75 where the earthquake was observed. From these intensity data, we determine that the epicentre was in the Hautes-Fagnes region [lat. 50.38°N/long. 6.19°E?±?30 km] where moderate damage, corresponding to EMS-98 intensity VI–VII, was observed. At large distances, the earthquake was felt as far as Düsseldorf to the north, Brussels to the west, Metz to the south and Wiesbaden to the east. These distances correspond to a perceptibility radius of about 150 km. The magnitude of this earthquake is evaluated to be M_L?=?4.7 (?0.2/+0.5) and M_W?=?4.2 (+0.4/?0.2).     

Some relationships between VAN Seismic Electric Signals (SES) and earthquake parameters: Study for the 1995–2007 period

A 12-year period experimental data, from 1 January 1995, to 20 August 2007, have been examined for possible correlations between Seismic Electric Signals (SES) of the VAN method and source parameters of the corresponding earthquakes in Western Greece. During that period 13 earthquakes of magnitude M _W ≥ 5 with epicenters in the area 19–24°E, 36–41°N and available the CMT solutions (Centroid Moment Tensor focal mechanism solutions) have been found to be preceded by a SES each time at one of the three VAN stations of IOA, PIR or PAT. The results of IOA and PIR stations are compared to those reported by Uyeda et al. 1999, for the previous period 1983–1994. The IOA station seems to be sensitive to earthquakes with thrust type mechanisms being mainly consistent to its past behavior. The PIR station, which is moved from its previous position by few kilometers, exhibits some changes. It detects now both strike slip and thrust type earthquakes and becomes sensitive to new areas indicating probably the strong dependence of the SES station detection ability upon its location.     

A simple carbon cycle representation for economic and policy analyses

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) that couple the climate system and the economy require a representation of ocean CO₂ uptake to translate human-produced emissions to atmospheric concentrations and in turn to climate change. The simple linear carbon cycle representations in most IAMs are not however physical at long timescales, since ocean carbonate chemistry makes CO₂ uptake highly nonlinear. No linearized representation can capture the ocean’s dual-mode behavior, with initial rapid uptake and then slow equilibration over ∽10,000 years. In a business-as-usual scenario followed by cessation of emissions, the carbon cycle in the 2007 version of the most widely used IAM, DICE (Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy), produces errors of ∽2^°C by the year 2300 and ∽6^°C by the year 3500. We suggest here a simple alternative representation that captures the relevant physics and show that it reproduces carbon uptake in several more complex models to within the inter-model spread. The scheme involves little additional complexity over the DICE model, making it a useful tool for economic and policy analyses.     

Mid-latitude Southern Indian Ocean response to Northern Hemisphere Heinrich events

The lack of temporal resolution and accurate chronology of Southern Ocean marine cores has hampered comparison of glacial millennial-scale oscillations between the Southern Ocean, Antarctic ice and other records from both hemispheres. In this study, glacial climate variability is investigated over the last 50 ka using a multi-proxy approach. A precise chrono-stratigraphy was developed on the high-sedimentation rate core MD94-103 (Indian Southern Ocean, 45°35′S 86°31′E, 3560 m water depth) by geomagnetic synchronization between the later core and NAPIS75, and ¹⁴C dates. High-resolution time-series of δ¹⁸O in planktonic foraminifera Globigerina bulloides and Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) estimated from the alkenone U^K′₃₇ index and foraminifera assemblages have been generated. Temporal evolution of the two temperature proxy records is notably different during the last glacial period. While foraminifera data indicate a consistent cooling towards the last glacial maximum, anomalous warm glacial alkenone temperatures suggest a strong advection of warm “detrital” alkenones by surface waters of the Agulhas current. Superimposed to this general trend, during Heinrich events, foraminiferal SSTs point to warmer surface waters, while concurrent alkenone SSTs exhibit apparent coolings probably caused by enhanced local alkenone production. By analogy to modern observations, possible influence of ENSO-like conditions on the subantarctic Southern Ocean SSTs is discussed.