Modelling background seismicity components identified by nearest neighbour and stochastic declustering approaches: the case of Northeastern Italy

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - An adequate characterization of the temporal features of background seismicity, namely after removal of temporally and spatially clustered...     

Responses of humpback whales to a changing climate in the Southern Hemisphere: Priorities for research efforts

Globally, baleen whales were severely depleted by historic whaling. Recovering populations have been observed to alter their behaviour. These changes have been attributed to climate change in some cases and raise concerns over the successful recovery of baleen whale populations. Current data-driven statistical habitat and behavioural models have proven useful for addressing questions of whale distribution changes within their limitations. Given observed changes in oceanic conditions, a new approach to managing baleen whale population recovery is necessary. Model predictions of future whale movements and distributions under climate change scenarios are vital to enable adequate conservation management. This paper presents a new perspective on understanding the impacts of climate change on humpback whales, arguing the need for a system-based multidisciplinary research approach. Our approach includes coupled, mechanistic models based upon robust ecological principles, and integrates key physical, biogeochemical, biological and ecological modules to address long-term changes associated with climate change. To illustrate the need for this system-based multidisciplinary approach, we focus on Southern Hemisphere humpback whales, the recovery of which may be impacted by rapid changes in habitat conditions brought about by anthropogenic climate change.     

Trophic modeling of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem, Part I: Comparing trophic linkages under La Niña and El Niño conditions

The El Niño of 1997–98 was one of the strongest warming events of the past century; among many other effects, it impacted phytoplankton along the Peruvian coast by changing species composition and reducing biomass. While responses of the main fish resources to this natural perturbation are relatively well known, understanding the ecosystem response as a whole requires an ecotrophic multispecies approach. In this work, we construct trophic models of the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem (NHCE) and compare the La Niña (LN) years in 1995–96 with the El Niño (EN) years in 1997–98. The model area extends from 4°S–16°S and to 60 nm from the coast. The model consists of 32 functional groups of organisms and differs from previous trophic models of the Peruvian system through: (i) division of plankton into size classes to account for EN-associated changes and feeding preferences of small pelagic fish, (ii) increased division of demersal groups and separation of life history stages of hake, (iii) inclusion of mesopelagic fish, and (iv) incorporation of the jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas), which became abundant following EN. Results show that EN reduced the size and organization of energy flows of the NHCE, but the overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators, detritus and export) of the ecosystem was maintained. The reduction of diatom biomass during EN forced omnivorous planktivorous fish to switch to a more zooplankton-dominated diet, raising their trophic level. Consequently, in the EN model the trophic level increased for several predatory groups (mackerel, other large pelagics, sea birds, pinnipeds) and for fishery catch. A high modeled biomass of macrozooplankton was needed to balance the consumption by planktivores, especially during EN condition when observed diatoms biomass diminished dramatically. Despite overall lower planktivorous fish catches, the higher primary production required-to-catch ratio implied a stronger ecological impact of the fishery and stresses the need for precautionary management of fisheries during and after EN. During EN energetic indicators such as the lower primary production/total biomass ratio suggest a more energetically efficient ecosystem, while reduced network indicators such as the cycling index and relative ascendency indicate of a less organized state of the ecosystem. Compared to previous trophic models of the NHCE we observed: (i) a shrinking of ecosystem size in term of energy flows, (ii) slight changes in overall functioning (proportion of energy flows used for respiration, consumption by predators and detritus), and (iii) the use of alternate pathways leading to a higher ecological impact of the fishery for planktivorous fish.     

Changes in biomass structure and trophic status of the plankton communities in a highly dynamic ecosystem (Gulf of Venice,Northern Adriatic Sea)

The changes in the plankton biomass structure in relation to nutrient inputs were studied in the Gulf of Venice (Northern Adriatic Sea), an area characterized by a very marked trophic state variability. The investigation was carried out at two stations, in March, May and July 2005 and 2006, considering the whole water column. The size structure (from picoplankton to mesozooplankton) of both autotrophs and heterotrophs was analysed. Signals of diluted waters and nutrient inputs were more marked in 2005 than in 2006. In 2005, the total plankton biomass was almost double (87 ± 37 μg·C·l^?1) that in 2006 (44 ± 26 μg·C·l^?1). The variations were determined mainly by phytoplankton, with a 70% decrease, and a shift from a community dominated by microphytoplankton (49 ± 12%) in 2005 to one dominated by bacteria (43 ± 11%) in 2006 was observed. The relationship between the heterotrophic (H) and autotrophic (A) biomass indicated a rapid decline of the H/A ratio with increasing phytoplankton biomass. This study, although temporally limited, is consistent with the results reported for other marine environments and it seems to confirm the importance of nutrient inputs in structuring the biomass of plankton community.     

Annual dynamics of the mesozooplankton communities in a highly variable ecosystem (North Adriatic Sea,Italy)

Mesozooplankton community composition at the species/taxa level was investigated from January to December 2001, at eight stations in the northern Adriatic Sea. Annual dynamics, taxonomic composition and spatial diversity in relation to different trophic conditions are discussed as related to previous studies and to different conditions, such as the presence of mucilage events. Zooplankton communities all over the northern sub‐basin were dominated by the cladoceran Penilia avirostris in summer, and by the calanoids Paracalanus parvus, Acartia clausi and the poecilostomatoids Oncaea spp. during the rest of the year. Whereas coastal communities were more variable with time and location, we were able to identify a group of offshore stations with a similar species/taxa composition and annual dynamics. Comparing the present results with previous studies, we observed significant changes in community composition in the time scale of 20 years, mostly due to a general decrease of A. clausi as the dominant species, being replaced by P. parvus. Also, P. avirostris swarms appear to have extended their temporal occurrence, and were present for longer periods of time when compared to past records. These changes might be related to the observed general increase of the average sea water temperature in the northern Adriatic Sea.     

Competition may mediate recovery from damage in an encrusting bryozoan

Disturbance is a ubiquitous feature of ecosystems, and the ability of a species to persist in a habitat with frequent disturbance is largely determined by the ways in which individual organisms respond. In modular species, indeterminate growth by module addition allows recovery from colony damage through disturbance, and the number of modules – colony size – is a good predictor of colony success. A growing body of evidence suggests that the recovery capacity of a modular animal is related not only to its size, an important indicator of likely survivorship and reproductive potential, but also to the age structure of its component modules. We tested whether the age structure of modules altered the recovery capacity of colonies of the encrusting bryozoan Parasmittina delicatula at two sites in South‐eastern Australia that differed in their levels of cover by competing sessile invertebrates. Damage incurred at different colony regions had a negligible effect on the subsequent growth of colonies at both sites, but for different reasons. At one site, where competition from neighbouring sessile invertebrates was low, growth rates were very similar across colonies, regardless of colony size and amount of damage to the colony edge. At the second site, neighbouring sessile invertebrates were abundant, and competitive interactions were more important in determining a colony’s success than any history of damage. Colonies that were overgrown once or more had lower growth rates and lower numbers of embryos at the final census than those that were never overgrown. These results imply that the importance of the age structure of modules to a colony’s recovery rate is reduced in the presence of natural competition, and that these factors need to be considered when predicting the responses of modular animals to disturbance.     

The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes

Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km² to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff.     

Acoustic emission processes occurring during high-pressure sand compaction

Granular materials submitted to uniaxial compression undergo pore space reduction due to mechanisms such as particle rearrangement and grain crushing. These changes in the internal structure of the material release energy in the form of elastic waves that can be detected by sensors sensitive to acoustic emission. In this study, Acoustic emission monitoring with a wavelet-based signal processing technique is used to identify the various mechanisms occurring during high-pressure sand compaction. Particle movement, grain failure, friction between grains and the surface of the compression cell and intergranular friction are studied. Acoustic emission data recorded during these simplified tests are used to characterize each phenomenon. Wavelet transform analyses allow the identification of useful features, making possible frequency discrimination among sliding, rolling, friction and grain fragmentation processes. For instance, we observe that at low stress, grain flow is characterized by the lowest centroid and peak frequencies, while at greater stresses, intergranular friction and grain fragmentation have the higher values. In the tests performed, the stress–strain evolution and final condition of the tested sand are broadly consistent, irrespective of the condition employed: continuous, stepwise or even variable loading rate or temperature. However, Acoustic emission data manifest much more complex behaviour (including thermal, load-rate dependency and delayed fragmentation phenomena) than that suggested by stress–strain relationships. At low stress levels, grain flow (sliding/rolling) is a relevant strain-accommodation mechanism, but so is crushing due to the effect of concentrated forces at the grain contact level. At high stresses, when crushing is generalized, intergranular friction is also a relevant phenomenon due to the increase in the coordination number produced by previous fragmentation.