Prediction of time to slope failure: a general framework

The prediction of time to slope failure (TSF) is a goal of major importance for both landslide researchers and practitioners. A reasonably accurate prediction of TSF allows human losses to be avoided, damages to property to be reduced and adequate countermeasures to be designed. A pure “phenomenological” approach based on the observation and interpretation of the monitored data is generally employed in TSF prediction. Such an approach infers TSF mainly from the ground surface displacements using regression techniques based on empirical functions. These functions neglect the rheological soil parameters in order to reduce the prediction uncertainties. This paper presents an overlook of the methods associated with this approach and proposes a unique expression encompassing most of the previously proposed equations for TSF prediction, thus offering a general framework useful for comparisons between different methods. The methods discussed in this paper provide an effective tool, and sometimes the only tool, for TSF prediction. The fundamental problem is always one of data quality. A full confidence in all assumptions and parameters used in the prediction model is rarely, if ever, achieved. Therefore, TSF prediction models should be applied with care and the results interpreted with caution. Documented case studies represent the most useful source of information to calibrate the TSF prediction models.     

A spectroscopic method for identifying terrestrial biocarbonates and application to Mars

Searching for traces of extinct and/or extant life on Mars is one of the major objectives for remote-sensing and in situ exploration of the planet. In previous laboratory works we have investigated the infrared spectral modifications induced by thermal processing on different carbonate samples, in the form of fresh shells and fossils of different ages, whose biotic origin is easily recognizable. The goal was to discriminate them from their abiotic counterparts. In general, it is difficult to identify biotic signatures, especially when the organisms inducing the carbonate precipitation have low fossilization potential (i.e. microbes, bacteria, archaea). A wide variety of microorganisms are implicated in carbonate genesis, and their direct characterization is very difficult to evaluate by traditional methods, both in ancient sedimentary systems and even in recent environments.In the present work we apply our analysis to problematic carbonate samples, in which there is no clear evidence of controlled or induced biomineralization. This analysis indicates a very likely biotic origin of the aragonite samples under study, in agreement with the conclusion previously reported by Guido et al. (2007) who followed a completely different approach based on a complex set of sedimentary, petrographic, geochemical and biochemical analyses. We show that our method is reliable for discriminating between biotic and abiotic carbonates, and therefore it is a powerful tool in the search for life on Mars in the next generation of space missions to the planet.     

The SCUBA HAlf Degree Extragalactic Survey – VI. 350-μm mapping of submillimetre galaxies

A follow-up survey using the Submillimetre High-Angular Resolution Camera (SHARC-II) at 350 μm has been carried out to map the regions around several 850-μm-selected sources from the Submillimetre HAlf Degree Extragalactic Survey (SHADES). These observations probe the infrared (IR) luminosities and hence star formation rates in the largest existing, most robust sample of submillimetre galaxies (SMGs). We measure 350-μm flux densities for 24 850-μm sources, seven of which are detected at ≥2.5σ within a 10 arcsec search radius of the 850-μm positions. When results from the literature are included the total number of 350-μm flux density constraints of SHADES SMGs is 31, with 15 detections. We fit a modified blackbody to the far-IR (FIR) photometry of each SMG, and confirm that typical SMGs are dust-rich  ( M _dust≃ 9 × 10⁸ M_⊙)  , luminous  ( L _FIR≃ 2 × 10¹² L_⊙)  star-forming galaxies with intrinsic dust temperatures of ≃35 K and star formation rates of  ≃400 M_⊙ yr⁻¹  . We have measured the temperature distribution of SMGs and find that the underlying distribution is slightly broader than implied by the error bars, and that most SMGs are at 28 K with a few hotter. We also place new constraints on the 350-μm source counts, N ₃₅₀(>25 mJy) ∼ 200–500 deg⁻².     

Activity cycle of the giant star of Z Andromedae and its spin period

We have re-analysed the long-term optical light curve (LC) of the symbiotic star Z Andromedae, covering 112 yr of mostly visual observations. Two strictly periodic cycles and one quasi-periodic cycle can be identified in this LC. A   P 1 = 7550  d quasi-periodicity characterizes the repetition time of the outburst episodes of this symbiotic star. Six such events have been recorded so far. During quiescence states of the system, that is, in time-intervals between outbursts, the LC is clearly modulated by a stable coherent period of   P 2 = 759.1  d. This is the well-known orbital period of the Z Andromedae binary system that has been measured also spectroscopically. A third coherent period of   P 3 = 658.4  d is modulating the intense fluctuations in the optical brightness of the system during outbursts. We attribute the trigger of the outburst phenomenon and the clock that drives it, to a solar-type magnetic dynamo cycle that operates in the convection and the outer layers of the giant star of the system. We suggest that the intense surface activity of the giant star during maximum phases of its magnetic cycle is especially enhanced in one or two antipode regions, fixed in the atmosphere of the star and rotating with it. Such spots could be active regions around the North Pole and the South Pole of a general magnetic dipole field of the star. The P3 periodicity is half the beat of the binary orbital period of the system and the spin period of the giant. The latter is then either 482 or 1790 d. If only one pole is active on the surface of the giant, P3 is the beat period itself, and the spin period is 352 d. It could also be 5000 d if the giant is rotating in a retrograde direction. We briefly compare these findings in the LC of Z Andromedae to similar modulations that were identified in the LC of two other prototype symbiotics, BF Cyg and YY Her.     

A cross-border regional earthquake early warning system: PRESTo@CE<Superscript>3</Superscript>RN

Since 2002 the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS) in Udine (Italy), the Agencija Republike Slovenije za Okolje (ARSO) in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna (Austria), are collecting, analyzing, archiving and exchanging seismic data in real time, initially in the framework of the EU Interreg IIIa Italia-Austria project “Trans-national seismological networks in the South-Eastern Alps”. As outcome of the successful cooperation, in the 2013 OGS, ARSO and ZAMG decided to officially merge their seismic monitoring efforts into the “Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network—CE³RN”. This work reports the results of a nine-month real-time test of the earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm probabilistic and evolutionary early warning system carried out at the CE³RN. The study allowed identifying the actions to be implemented in order to let the CE³RN become in the next future an efficient cross-border EEW system.     

Photo's from Proceedings of the Third MicroQuasar Workshop; Granada Worshop on Galactic Relativistic Jet Sources – Granada,Spain, 11–13 September 2000

The X-Ray Spectroscopic Explorer (XRASE) has a unique combination of features that will make it possible to address many of NASA's scientific goals. These include how galaxy clusters form, the physics and chemistry of the ISM, the heating of stellar coronae, the amount and content of intergalactic baryonic matter, the mass of black holes and the formation of disks and jets in AGN and galactic binaries. XRASE has a thin foil, multilayered telescope with a large collecting area up to 10 keV, especially in the Fe K region (1100 cm²). Its microcalorimeter array combines high energy resolution (7 eV at 6 keV) and efficiency with a field-of-view of 26 arcmin² . A deep orbit allows for long, continuous observations. Monitoring instruments in the optical (WOM-X), UV (TAUVEX) and hard X-RAY (GRAM) bands will offer exceptional opportunities to make simultaneous multi-wavelength observations.     

Tectonic indentation in the central Alboran Sea (westernmost Mediterranean)

The Alboran Sea constitutes a Neogene–Quaternary basin of the Betic–Rif Cordillera, which has been deformed since the Late Miocene during the collision between the Eurasian and African plates in the westernmost Mediterranean. NNE–SSW sinistral and WNW–ESE dextral conjugate fault sets forming a 75° angle surround a rigid basement spur of the African plate, and are the origin of most of the shallow seismicity of the central Alboran Sea. Northward, the faults decrease their transcurrent slip, becoming normal close to the tip point, while NNW–SSE normal and sparse ENE–WSW reverse to transcurrent faults are developed. The uplifting of the Alboran Ridge ENE–WSW antiform above a detachment level was favoured by the crustal layering. Despite the recent anticlockwise rotation of the Eurasian–African convergence trend in the westernmost Mediterranean, these recent deformations—consistent with indenter tectonics characterised by a N164°E trend of maximum compression—entail the highest seismic hazard of the Alboran Sea.     

Effect of post-fire defoliation on bud viability and plant mortality of Piptochaetium napostaense (Speg.) Hack. and Poa ligularis Ness.

The objective of this work was to evaluate the effects of post-fire defoliation on axillary bud viability and mortality of Piptochaetium napostaense (Speg.) Hack. and Poa ligularis Nees. at different phenological stages. Both species are cool-season perennial native grasses highly preferred by cattle in the semi-arid region of central Argentina. The following treatments were established for each species: no defoliation (control), early-season defoliation (vegetative stage) and late-season defoliation (internode elongation stage). Ten plants were assigned randomly to each treatment. Fire treatment was applied at the end of the annual growing cycle of both species.Our results would suggest that early-season defoliation during the first year after fire might reduce axillary bud viability in P. napostaense and P. ligularis. In addition, P. napostaense was more susceptible to early-season defoliation than P. ligularis. Post-fire defoliation, principally early-season defoliation, might increase plant mortality in P. napostaense, but it does not seem to affect P. ligularis. Therefore, a period with no grazing after fire might be the key factor to protect axillary buds, and subsequently permit the re-establishment of the photosynthetic canopy through the production of new tillers, favouring mainly the persistence of P. napostaense in the community.     

PRESTo,the earthquake early warning system for Southern Italy: Concepts,capabilities and future perspectives

PRESTo (PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem) is a software platform for regional earthquake early warning that integrates recently developed algorithms for real-time earthquake location and magnitude estimation into a highly configurable and easily portable package. The system is under active experimentation in Southern Italy on the Irpinia Seismic Network (ISNet), which is deployed in a seismogenic area that is expected to produce a large earthquake within the next 20 years. In this paper we describe the architecture of the system and test its performances using both small earthquakes (M<3.5) recorded at the ISNet and a large event recorded in Japan, through a simulation mode. The results show that, when a dense seismic network is deployed in the fault area, PRESTo can produce reliable estimates of earthquake location and size within 5–6 s from the event origin. Each estimate is provided as a probability density function, with an uncertainty that typically decreases with time: a stable solution is generally reached within 10 s from the origin.