Integrated rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modeling for flash flood risk assessment under data scarcity in arid regions: Wadi Fatimah basin case study,Saudi Arabia

This paper presents a proposed integrated approach for flood hazardous evaluation in arid and semi-arid areas. Wadi Fatimah in Saudi Arabia is utilized for implementation of such an approach. The approach consists of four stages. In the first stage, a statistical analysis of rainfall data is performed to determine the design storms at specified return periods. In the second stage, geological and geomorphologic analyses are followed to estimate the geomorphic parameters. The third stage concerned with land use and land cover analyses linked with hydrological analysis to estimate the hydrographs. The fourth stage is related to the delineation of the inundation area under two scenarios: the presence and absence of the dam. The statistical analysis proved that some rainfall stations do not follow a Gumbel distribution. The presence of the dam reduces the inundation depth by about 10 %. The reduction in the inundation area due the presence of the dam is about 25 %.     

The impact of rainfall distribution patterns on hydrological and hydraulic response in arid regions: case study Medina,Saudi Arabia

Rainfall distribution patterns (RDPs) are crucial for hydrologic design. Hydrologic modeling is based on Soil Conservation Services (SCS) type RDPs (SCS type I, IA, II, and III). SCS type II method is widely used by hydrologists in arid regions. These RDPs were designed for the USA and similar temperate regions. There is no scientific justification for using SCS type II method in arid regions. The consequences of using SCS type II have impacts on the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling studies. The current paper investigates the validity of the SCS type II and in arid regions. New temporal RDPs were applied and compared with SCS type II RDPs. The produced peak discharges, volumes, maximum inundation depths, top widths, and velocities from both approaches were analyzed. An application is made on the protection channel in Taibah and Islamic Universities campuses in Medina, Saudi Arabia. A methodology was followed which included frequency analysis, catchment modeling, hydrological modeling, and hydraulic modeling. Results indicated that there are considerable consequences on infrastructural design, and hydrologic and hydraulic parameters if inappropriate RDPs are used. The investigation confirmed that the SCS type RDPs do not reflect the actual flood features in arid regions.     

Influence of temporal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity on pollution transport in porous media

The combined influence of temporal fluctuations and spatial heterogeneity on non-reactive solute transport mechanisms in porous media can be understood by performing simulations of steady and unsteady flow and transport in heterogeneous media. The study focuses on issues such as the degree of heterogeneity, correlation length, separation of the combined effects of temporal and spatial variations, and ergodicity conditions under unsteady flow conditions. It is shown that the effect of temporal variations on solute transport is masked by the strong effect of spatial heterogeneity. There is no obvious difference in plume shape between steady and unsteady flow conditions; the first and the second spatial moments of the plume of the unsteady-state flow condition fluctuate around the steady-state flow condition with the same period of oscillations as the input signal at small storage coefficient (S????0.001). At a relatively high standard deviation in hydraulic conductivity and a small storage coefficient, the unsteady flow condition sharpens the temporal variations in macrodispersion coefficients. The magnitude of the longitudinal macrodispersion coefficient under unsteady flow condition is almost doubled at the maximum values. However, the transverse macrodispersion coefficient fluctuates around zero. The Kubo number and Peclet number ranges are 1.2?C64 and 10?C250, respectively.     

Stochastic modelling of a diffusive wave for flood propagation using the random walk particle tracking method in a hypothetical city

Deterministic numerical schemes have been widely used for the solution of the diffusive wave (DW) equation, however, these schemes are computationally costly and suffer instability issues. This paper presents a stochastic random walk particle tracking (RWPT) method to solve such an equation for a dam‐break flow problem. Three different wave duration scenarios are presented for simulations of the DW for flood flows in a hypothetical city. The hypothetical city is represented by a domain of size 2,000 m by 500 m in x and y directions, respectively. The domain is divided into 25 m by 25 m cells. A dam is located at the upstream of the hypothetical city. Each scenario has a distinct propagation pattern after the dam is breached. Analysed and presented are 18 different simulations, which are composed of three different building configurations, two different bed slopes, and three different shapes of hydrographs. In this method, the flood volume is divided into a large number of particles where each particle carries a fixed amount of the flood volume. These particles undergo convective and diffusive movements, and their superposition represents propagation of the DW in the flow domain. The solution algorithm of the RWPT‐based equations is used to compute flood inundation depths in the hypothetical city. Comparison is drawn among the simulated results from three different shapes of the inflow hydrographs. The proposed stochastic method has two major advantages over traditional deterministic schemes: (a) greater efficiency, thus lesser computational costs, and (b) no instability issues.     

Optimizing groundwater monitoring systems for landfills with random leaks under heterogeneous subsurface conditions

Landfills are one of the most common human activities threatening the natural groundwater quality. The landfill may leak, and the corresponding plumes may contaminate an area, entailing costly remediation measures. The objective of the installation of monitoring systems at landfill sites is to detect the contaminant plumes before they reach the regulatory compliance boundary in order to enable cost-effective counter measures. In this study, a classical decision analysis approach is linked to a stochastic simulation model to determine the optimal groundwater monitoring system given uncertainties due to the hydrogeological conditions and contaminant source characteristics. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate uncertainties. Hydraulic conductivity and the leak location are the random inputs of the simulation model. The design objectives are to: (1) maximize the detection probability, (2) minimize the area of contamination at the time of detection, and (3) minimize the total cost of the monitoring system. A synthetic test case based on a real-world case in the Netherlands is analyzed. The results show that monitoring systems located close to the source are optimal except for the cases with very high unit installation and sampling cost and/or very cheap unit remediation.     

Aquifer recharge from flash floods in the arid environment: A mass balance approach at the catchment scale

Estimation of the infiltration/natural recharge to groundwater from rainfall is an important issue in hydrology, particularly in arid regions. This paper proposes the application of The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) mass balance model to develop infiltration (F)–rainfall (P) relationship from flash flood events. Moreover, the NRCS method is compared with the rational and the Ф-index methods to investigate the discrepancies between these methods. The methods have been applied to five gauged basins and their 19 sub-basins (representative basins with detailed measurements) in the southwestern part of Saudi Arabia with 161 storms recorded in 4 years. The F–P relationships developed in this study based on NRCS method are: F = 39% P with R² = 0.932 for the initial abstraction factor, λ = 0.2. However, F = 77% P with R² = 0.986 for λ = 0.01. The model at λ = 0.01 is the best to fit the data, therefore, it is recommended to use the formula at λ = 0.01. The results show that the NRCS model is appropriate for the estimation of the F–P relationships in arid regions when compared with the rational and the Ф index methods. The latter overestimates the infiltration because they do not take λ into account. There is no significant difference between F–P relationships at different time scales. This helps the prediction of infiltration rates for aquifer recharge at ungauged basins from monthly and annual rainfall data with a single formula.