Calibration of rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins: A regional maximum likelihood approach

Parameter estimation for rainfall-runoff models in ungauged basins is a challenging task that is receiving significant attention by the scientific community. In fact, many practical applications suffer from problems induced by data scarcity, given that hydrological observations are often sparse or unavailable. This study focuses on regional calibration for a generic rainfall-runoff model. The maximum likelihood function in the spectral domain proposed by Whittle [40] is approximated in the time domain by maximising the fit of selected statistics of the river flow process, with the aim to propose a calibration procedure that can be applied at regional scale. Accordingly, the statistics above are related to the dominant climate and catchment characteristics, through regional regression relationships. The proposed technique is applied to the case study of 4 catchments located in central Italy, which are treated as ungauged and are located in a region where detailed hydrological, as well as geomorphologic and climatic information, is available. The results obtained with the regional calibration are compared with those provided by a classical least squares calibration in the time domain. The outcomes of the analysis confirm the potential of the proposed methodology and show that regional information can be very effective for setting up hydrological models.     

Empirical seismic fragility for the precast RC industrial buildings damaged by the 2012 Emilia (Italy) earthquakes

The paper analyses the seismic fragility of precast reinforced concrete buildings using observational damage data gathered after the 2012 Emilia earthquakes that struck Northern Italy. The damage level in 1890 buildings was collected, classified and examined. Damage matrices were then evaluated, and finally, empirical fragility curves were fitted using Bayesian regression. Building damage was classified using a six‐level scale derived from EMS‐98. The completeness of the database and the spatial distribution of the buildings investigated were analysed using cadastral data as a reference. The intensity of the ground motion was quantified by the maximum horizontal peak ground acceleration, which was obtained from ShakeMaps. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The cycling of Ni,Zn, Cu in the system “mine tailings–ground water–plants”: A case study

The comparative behaviour of Ni, Cu and Zn in the system “mine tailings–ground water–plants” has been investigated at the Ni–Cu mine site operated by INCO Ltd. Thompson Operations, Thompson, Manitoba. Oxidation of sulphide minerals causes the release of metals from exposed tailings containing Ni ∼2000 ppm, Cu ∼150 ppm and Zn ∼100 ppm to the ground water, which contains 350 mg/L Ni, 0.007 mg/L Cu, and 1.6 mg/L Zn. The metal concentration in the ground water is affected by the relative proportions of sulfide minerals, the rate of oxidation of sulphide minerals (Ni-bearing pyrrhotite > sphalerite > chalcopyrite), and the affinity of the metals for secondary Fe-phases (Ni > Zn > Cu).     

Composite detrital and thermal remanent magnetization in tuffs from Aeolian Islands (southern Tyrrhenian Sea) revealed by magnetic anisotropy

This paper reports on the complex relation between rock emplacement and remanence acquisition in tuffs deposited by pyroclastic density currents, disclosed by systematic measurements of the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility and natural remanent magnetization (NRM). Thermal demagnetization shows that the NRM consists of two components with different blocking-temperature spectra. The direction of the low-temperature component is consistent with the geocentric axial dipole value, whereas the high-temperature component has dispersed directions. The magnetic fabric is oblate, the magnetic foliation is close to the bedding and the lineations are generally dispersed along a girdle within the foliation plane. The directions of the magnetic lineation and the high-temperature remanence component of individual specimens are close to each other. This correspondence suggests that the high blocking-temperature grains acquired a remanence aligned to their long dimension before deposition, while cooling within the explosive cloud and the moving pyroclastic current. Thereafter, during deposition, the traction processes at the base of the current oriented the grains along the flow direction and affected both fabric and high-temperature remanence. This NRM component results from mechanical orientation of previously magnetized grains and is thus detrital in origin. A second, thermal component was then acquired during the cooling of the low blocking-temperature grains after deposition. These results show that NRM in fine-grained pyroclastic rocks is affected by the Earth’s magnetic field as well as the emplacement processes and that magnetic fabric data are essential to unravel its complex nature.     

Isotopic and hydrochemistry spatial variation of sulfate for groundwater characterization in karstic aquifers

The Sierra Gorda aquifer is one of the most extensive of southern Spain. The main groundwater discharge is produced at its northern boundary through several high‐flow springs. In this study, stable isotopes of dissolved sulfate (δ³⁴S and δ¹⁸O) and groundwater chemistry were used to determine the origin of the sulfate and to characterize the groundwater flow. We sampled the main springs, as well as other minor outlets related to perched water tables, in order to determine the different sources of SO₄^2? (e.g., dissolution of evaporites and atmospheric deposition). The substantial difference in the amount of dissolved SO₄^2? between the springs located in its northwestern part (≈25 mg/L) and those elsewhere in the northern part (≈60 mg/L) suggests zones with separate groundwater flow systems. A third group of springs, far from the northeastern boundary of the permeable outcrops, shows higher SO₄^2? content than the rest (≈125 mg/L). The isotopic range of sulfate (?0.3‰ to 14.82‰ V‐CTD) points to several sources, including dissolution of Triassic or Miocene evaporites, atmospheric deposition, and decomposition of organic material in the soil. Among these, the dissolution of Triassic gypsum—which overlies the saturated zone as a consequence of the folds and faults that deform the aquifer—is the main source of SO₄^2? (range from 12.79‰ to 14.82‰ V‐CTD). This range is typical for Triassic gypsum. The higher karstification in the western sector, together with important differences in the saturated thickness between the western and eastern sectors, would also be due to the tectonic structure and could explain the difference in SO₄^2? contents in the water. This singular arrangement may cause a higher residence time of groundwater in the eastern sector; thus, a higher contact time with Triassic evaporitic rocks is inferred. Accordingly, the stable isotopes of SO₄^2? are found to be a valuable tool for identifying areas with different flow systems in the saturated zone of karstic aquifers, as well as for evaluating aspects such as the degree of karstification .     

Middle to Late Pleistocene lake‐level fluctuations of Lake El'gygytgyn,far‐east Russian Arctic

Lake El'gygytgyn, located in central Chukotka, Russian Arctic, was the subject of an international drilling project that resulted in the recovery of the longest continuous palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental record for the terrestrial Arctic covering the last 3.6 million years. Here, we present the reconstruction of the lake‐level fluctuations of Lake El'gygytgyn since Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 7 based on lithological and palynological as well as chronological studies of shallow‐water sediment cores and subaerial lake terraces. Reconstructed lake levels show an abrupt rise during glacial–interglacial terminations (MIS 6/5 and MIS 2/1) and during the MIS 4/3 stadial–interstadial transition. The most prominent lowstands occurred during glacial periods associated with a permanent lake‐ice cover (namely MIS 6, MIS 4 and MIS 2). Major triggering mechanisms of the lake‐level fluctuations at Lake El'gygytgyn are predominantly changes in air temperature and precipitation. Regional summer temperatures control the volume of meltwater supply as well as the duration of the lake‐ice cover (permanent or seasonal). The duration of the lake‐ice cover, in turn, enables or hampers near‐shore sediment transport, thus leading to long‐term lake‐level oscillations on glacial–interglacial time scales by blocking or opening the lake outflow, respectively. During periods of seasonal ice cover the lake level was additionally influenced by changes in precipitation. The discovered mechanism of climatologically driven level fluctuations of Lake El'gygytgyn are probably valid for large hydrologically open lakes in the Arctic in general, thus helping to understand arctic palaeohydrology and providing missing information for climate modelling.     

Coverage of Mars by Probes Slightly Off the Areostationary Orbit

This paper aims at investigating the feasibility of gaining complete and continuous coverage of an extended equatorial belt of Mars, under the effects of orbital perturbations. The problem could be solved by considering a minimum number of three probes, which move slightly off the Martian Areostationary Orbit. The proposed configurations allow the achievement of the goal without entailing corrective manoeuvres and presenting only a longitudinal motion with respect to the surface of Mars.     

贝加尔湖的污染与富营养化

The long term systematic investigations of ion composition components (bicarbonates, chlorides, sulphates, magnesium, calcium, sodium, potassium) and trophic status components (suspension, chlorophyll-a, mineral and organic forms phosphorus and nitrogen, carbon, silica) of water from the lake proper, its tributaries and atmospheric precipitation, which make up the main share of substance supply in to the lake, as well as the Angara river, being the source of substance discharge allowed the lake recent state to be evaluated in terms of both chemical pollution and possible eutrophication of its water. The similar (in terms of river runojf) periods of 50-ies and 80-ies have been compared. It was revealed that as a result of industrial activity 409 thousand tons of mineral substances (27.2 thousand tons of chlorides, 162 thousand tons of sulphates and over 200 thousand tons of organic substances) are supplied in the lake annually. The supply of substances of the anthropogenic origin is higher for the South Baikal than that for the North and Middle Baikal (the sum of mineral substances in 3.6 times; sulphates in 5 times, organic substances, including hydrocarbons in 7 times).The absence of abundant phytoplankton in the period studied when the ratio of silica to phosphorus is optimum (over 100), as well as a revers correlation between winter nitrogen content and spring of chlorophyll-a concentration in the Baikal water and revers dependence between the suspension and chlorophyll-a along the Selenga river valley lead to the conclusion that Baikal water contains toxicants. It is verified by the presence of polychlorbiphenyls (PCB), poly-chlordibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and dibenzofurans (PCDF) for the whole food web with the maximum PCDD/PCDF (TEQ to 175 P g · g^-1) concentration in the seal blubber. The levels are comparable with those reported for ringed seal (phoca hispida), living in the Baltic sea and Bar-row Strait Inlet in the Canadian Arctic.     

Contribution to knowledge regarding the sources of earthquakes on the island of Ischia (Southern Italy)

Natural Hazards - This paper analyses data regarding the seismicity and ground deformations of the island of Ischia. The goal is to describe these phenomena as a space–time process, exploring...