Does salinity change determine zooplankton variability in the saline Qarun Lake(Egypt)?

Zooplankton and 14 abiotic variables were studied during August 2011 at 10 stations in Lake Qarun,Egypt.Stations with the lowest salinity and highest nutrient concentrations and turbidity were close to the discharge of waters from the El-Bats and El-Wadi drainage systems.A total of 15 holozooplankton species were identified.The salinity in Lake Qarun increased and fluctuated since 1901:12 g/L in 1901;8.5 g/L in 1905;12.0 g/L in 1922;30.0 g/L in 1985;38.7 g/L in 1994;35.3 g/L in 2006,and 33.4 g/L in 2011.The mean concentration of nutrients(nitrate,nitrite and orthophosphate) gradually increased from 35,0.16 and 0.38 ? g/L,respectively,in 1953–1955 to 113,16.4,and 30.26 ? g/L in 2011.From 1999–2003 some decrease of species diversity occurred.Average total zooplankton density was 30 000 ind./m 3 in 1974–1977;356 125 ind./m 3 in 1989;534 000 ind./m 3 in 1994–1995;from 965 000 to 1 452 000 ind./m 3 in 2006,and 595 000 ind./m 3 in 2011.A range of long-term summer salinity variability during the last decades was very similar to a range of salinity spatial variability in summer 2011.There is no significant correlation between zooplankton abundance and salinity in spatial and long-term changes.We conclude that salinity fluctuations since at least 1955 did not directly drive the changes of composition and abundance of zooplankton in the lake.A marine community had formed in the lake,and it continues to change.One of the main drivers of this change is a regular introduction and a pressure of alien species on the existent community.Eutrophication also plays an important role.The introduction of Mnemiopsis leidyi,first reported in 2014,may lead to a start of a new stage of the biotic changes in Lake Qarun,when eutrophication and the population dynamics of this ctenophore will be main drivers of the ecosystem change.     

Modeling the effects of the variability of temperature-related dynamic viscosity on the thermal-affected zone of groundwater heat-pump systems

Thermal perturbation in the subsurface produced in an open-loop groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant is a complex transport phenomenon affected by several factors, including the exploited aquifer’s hydrogeological and thermal characteristics, well construction features, and the temporal dynamics of the plant’s groundwater abstraction and reinjection system. Hydraulic conductivity has a major influence on heat transport because plume propagation, which occurs primarily through advection, tends to degrade following conductive heat transport and convection within moving water. Hydraulic conductivity is, in turn, influenced by water reinjection because the dynamic viscosity of groundwater varies with temperature. This paper reports on a computational analysis conducted using FEFLOW software to quantify how the thermal-affected zone (TAZ) is influenced by the variation in dynamic viscosity due to reinjected groundwater in a well-doublet scheme. The modeling results demonstrate non-negligible groundwater dynamic-viscosity variation that affects thermal plume propagation in the aquifer. This influence on TAZ calculation was enhanced for aquifers with high intrinsic permeability and/or substantial temperature differences between abstracted and post-heat-pump-reinjected groundwater.

     

Contrasting patterns of precipitation seasonality during the Holocene in the south‐ and north‐central Mediterranean

Pollen‐based quantitative estimates of seasonal precipitation from Lake Pergusa and lake‐level data from Lake Preola in Sicily (southern Italy) allow three successive periods to be distinguished within the Holocene: an early Holocene period before ca. 9800 cal a BP with rather dry climate conditions in winter and summer, a mid‐Holocene period between ca. 9800 and 4500 cal a BP with maximum winter and summer wetness, and a late Holocene period after 4500 cal a BP with declining winter and summer wetness. This evolution observed in the south‐central Mediterranean shows strong similarities to that recognized in the eastern Mediterranean. But, it contrasts with that reconstructed in north‐central Italy, where the mid‐Holocene appears to be characterized by a winter (summer) precipitation maximum (minimum), while the late Holocene coincided with a decrease (increase) in winter (summer) precipitation. Maximum precipitation at ca. 10 000–4500 cal a BP may have resulted from (i) increased local convection in response to a Holocene insolation maximum at 10 000 cal a BP and then (ii) the gradual weakening of the Hadley cell activity, which allowed the winter rainy westerlies to reach the Mediterranean area more frequently. After 4500 cal a BP, changes in precipitation seasonality may reflect non‐linear responses to orbitally driven insolation decrease in addition to seasonal and inter‐hemispheric changes of insolation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Kuramoto Model of Nonlinear Coupled Oscillators as a Way for Understanding Phase Synchronization: Application to Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

We apply a Kuramoto model of nonlinear coupled oscillators to the simulation of slow variations of the phase difference between sunspot number [R _I ] and geomagnetic indices [aa and ζ]. The Kuramoto model is described for the particular case of two oscillators connected by symmetric coupling with quasi-stationary behavior, and its properties are investigated. By solving an inverse problem, we reconstruct the evolution of the couplings between pairs of indices [R _I and aa, R _I and ζ, aa and ζ], and interpret these in terms of the physics of the solar dynamo. The de-correlation between R _I and geomagnetic indices found in Solar Cycle 20 by Le Mouël et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 117, A09103, 2012) is successfully reproduced by the Kuramoto model and corresponds to the alternation of the leading oscillator. Application of the Kuramoto model to the cross-correlations [C(R _I ,ζ) and C(aa,ζ)] for ζ-indices computed in eight geomagnetic stations shows the latitudinal dependence of the mean phase difference. We discuss these results in terms of the solar-wind contribution to local geomagnetic indices [ζ].     

Reconstructions of spring/summer precipitation for the Eastern Mediterranean from tree-ring widths and its connection to large-scale atmospheric circulation

This study represents the first large-scale systematic dendroclimatic sampling focused on developing chronologies from different species in the eastern Mediterranean region. Six reconstructions were developed from chronologies ranging in length from 115 years to 600 years. The first reconstruction (1885–2000) was derived from principal components (PCs) of 36 combined chronologies. The remaining five, 1800–2000, 1700–2000, 1600–2000, 1500–2000 and 1400–2000 were developed from PCs of 32, 18, 14, 9, and 7 chronologies, respectively. Calibration and verification statistics for the period 1931–2000 show good levels of skill for all reconstructions. The longest period of consecutive dry years, defined as those with less than 90% of the mean of the observed May–August precipitation, was 5 years (1591–1595) and occurred only once during the last 600 years. The longest reconstructed wet period was 5 years (1601–1605 and 1751–1755). No long term trends were found in May–August precipitation during the last few centuries. Regression maps are used to identify the influence of large-scale atmospheric circulation on regional precipitation. In general, tree-ring indices are influenced by May–August precipitation, which is driven by anomalous below (above) normal pressure at all atmospheric levels and by convection (subsidence) and small pressure gradients at sea level. These atmospheric conditions also control the anomaly surface air temperature distribution which indicates below (above) normal values in the southern regions and warmer (cooler) conditions north of around 40°N. A compositing technique is used to extract information on large-scale climate signals from extreme wet and dry summers for the second half of the twentieth century and an independent reconstruction over the last 237 years. Similar main modes of atmospheric patterns and surface air temperature distribution related to extreme dry and wet summers were identified both for the most recent 50 years and the last 237 years. Except for the last few decades, running correlation analyses between the major European-scale circulation patterns and eastern Mediteranean spring/summer precipitation over the last 237 years are non-stationary and insignificant, suggesting that local and/or sub-regional geographic factors and processes are important influences on tree-ring variability over the last few centuries.     

Response of alpine chironomid communities (Lake Chuna, Kola Peninsula, northwestern Russia) to atmospheric contamination

A short sediment core from the deepest part of an alpine lake (Lake Chuna, Kola Peninsula, northwestern Russia), covering about the past 200 yrs of sediment accumulation, was analysed for chironomid head capsule remains. The lake has been receiving acidic precipitation and heavy metals loading from the atmosphere since the 1940's. A total of 22 chironomid taxa were recorded. The most important taxa were typical elements of oligotrophic lakes, i.e.Micropsectra insignilobus, Paratanytarsus penicillatus, Stictochironomus spp. and Heterotrissocladius marcidus. Based on the cluster analyses results for the reconstructed environmental variables and chironomid communities, three developmental stages were distinguished from the lake history: (1) Natural ontogeny stage (before ~1945); (2) Initial stage of anthropogenic ontogeny (~1945-~1982); and (3) Anthropogenic ontogeny stage (~1982-~1996). During the first period, the changes in the chironomid fauna were characterized as an anthropogenically undisturbed community, with M. insignilobus dominating (46-66%). The changes during the second period reflected the initial phase of anthropogenic succession associated with the beginning of acidification and heavy metal pollution. The main species showed opposite distributional patterns in this period; the abundance of the group M. insignilobus/Stictochironomus spp. decreased, whereas the abundance of P. penicillatus/H. marcidus increased. The third period was characterized by a major shift in the faunal assemblages, from M. insignilobus to other dominant species including P. penicillatus (19-30%). The increases of Orthocladiinae relative abundance and total organic content in the uppermost sediment layers may be explained by a decrease in lake productivity. The decreases of cold-stenothermal taxa Stictochironomus spp. and M. insignilobus in the uppermost sediment layers can be explained by the global warming during the 20th century. The lake ecosystem is likely to be affected by both inputs of airborne contaminants and climate changes.     

Testing potential bias in marine plankton respiration rates by dark bottle incubations in the NW Iberian shelf: incubation time and bottle volume

The accurate determination of the balance between plankton production and respiration in the ocean is important for C budgets and global change predictions. Disagreements on the measurement of such a balance at different scales (from microbiological to biogeochemical) have produced a controversy over the trophic status of the ocean. This is especially striking in the oligotrophic open ocean, where plankton community O₂ consumption rates in 24 h incubations have frequently produced a net heterotrophic balance, but similar difficulties emerge in coastal systems. These results have been criticised due to the possibility that the standard 24 h in vitro incubations are biased because of the long incubation time needed and the so-called “bottle effect”.To study the influence of the incubation time and bottle volume on the measurement of plankton net metabolism, we carried out several time series experiments in the NW Iberian coastal system. Here we present measurements of plankton community respiration rates concurrently obtained through (1) standard in vitro changes in dissolved oxygen concentration after different incubation times ranging from 2 to 48 h, and with bottle volumes of 50, 125 and 570 mL, and (2) the decrease in the oxygen concentration measured every 20 s with oxygen microsensors, during 48 h. Our results refute the contention that 24 h dark 125 mL bottle incubations are systematically biased, and highlight the validity of oxygen microsensors to study the dynamics of natural marine plankton respiration.     

EOF analysis of a time series with application to tsunami detection

Fragments of deep-ocean tidal records up to 3 days long belong to the same functional sub-space, regardless of the record’s origin. The tidal sub-space basis can be derived via Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of a tidal record of a single buoy. Decomposition of a tsunami buoy record in a functional space of tidal EOFs presents an efficient tool for a short-term tidal forecast, as well as for an accurate tidal removal needed for early tsunami detection and quantification [Tolkova, E., 2009. Principal component analysis of tsunami buoy record: tide prediction and removal. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 46 (1–4), 62–82] EOF analysis of a time series, however, assumes that the time series represents a stationary (in the weak sense) process. In the present work, a modification of one-dimensional EOF formalism not restricted to stationary processes is introduced. With this modification, the EOF-based de-tiding/forecasting technique can be interpreted in terms of a signal passage through a filter bank, which is unique for the sub-space spanned by the EOFs. This interpretation helps to identify a harmonic content of a continuous process whose fragments are decomposed by given EOFs. In particular, seven EOFs and a constant function are proved to decompose 1-day-long tidal fragments at any location. Filtering by projection into a reduced sub-space of the above EOFs is capable of isolating a tsunami wave within a few millimeter accuracy from the first minutes of the tsunami appearance on a tsunami buoy record, and is reliable in the presence of data gaps. EOFs with ∼$\sim$3-day duration (a reciprocal of either tidal band width) allow short-term (24.75 h in advance) tidal predictions using the inherent structure of a tidal signal. The predictions do not require any a priori knowledge of tidal processes at a particular location, except for recent 49.5 h long recordings at the location.     

Slow and Fast Rotating Coronal Holes from Geomagnetic Indices

The evolution of the 27-day recurrence in the series of two solar indices (Wolf number WN and 10.7 cm radio flux F) and two geomagnetic indices (Dst and ζ, variance of the geomagnetic field recorded at a magnetic observatory) have been studied over the 1957 – 2007 time span. Spectral energies contained in two period domains (25 – 27.3 and 27.3 – 31 days), designated as E ₁ and E ₂, have been computed. Whereas the evolution of E ₁ is the same for the four indices, that of E ₂ is essentially different for WN and F on the one hand, Dst and ζ on the other hand. Some general conclusions on the dynamics of the solar outer layers are inferred from these results. First the solar activity, as measured by WN, and when averaged over a few years, evolves in the same way whatever the latitude. Second, two families of coronal holes (CHs) are identified; the rapidly and the slowly rotating CHs evolve quite differently.