Evaluating Lost Person Behavior Models

US wilderness search and rescue consumes thousands of person‐hours and millions of dollars annually. Timeliness is critical: the probability of success decreases substantially after 24 hours. Although over 90% of searches are quickly resolved by standard “reflex” tasks, the remainder require and reward intensive planning. Planning begins with a probability map showing where the lost person is likely to be found. The MapScore project described here provides a way to evaluate probability maps using actual historical searches. In this work we generated probability maps the Euclidean distance tables in (Koester 2008 ), and using Doke's ( 2012 ) watershed model. Watershed boundaries follow high terrain and may better reflect actual barriers to travel. We also created a third model using the joint distribution using Euclidean and watershed features. On a metric where random maps score 0 and perfect maps score 1, the Euclidean distance model scored 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74–0.82, on 376 cases). The simple watershed model by itself was clearly inferior at 0.61, but the Combined model was slightly better at 0.81 (95%CI: 0.77–0.84).     

Erosion processes in karst landscapes of the Russian plain northern taiga,based on digital elevation modeling

This paper considers the problems of the potential development of erosion processes in the natural landscapes of northern taiga in the Russian plain. It is considered that in forest ecosystems, erosion processes are slow and are weakly reflected in the terrain. However, the situation changes radically if the vegetation cover integrity is violated, which is inevitable with the modern methods of developing northern territories. Furthermore, global changes in average annual temperatures and the occurrence of karst processes may be the reason behind the development of erosion processes. The authors suggest a method for determining territories with a varying occurrence probability of erosional processes, based on digital elevation modelling. The territory of the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve (Arkhangelsk region) was chosen as the test plot. Direct field studies were previously used to detect exogenous geological processes in this territory. The authors were the first to suggest digital elevation modelling as a method that allows determining the potential danger of erosion in karst landscapes of the northern taiga. The geomorphometric studies resulted in the determination of areas with the greatest and lowest occurrence probability of erosion processes in the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve. It was established that the most significant erosion type was linear erosion, represented by incised river valleys and karst ravines. Sheet erosion is less significant and occurs as sinkholes, local declines, and chasms over the valleys of subterranean rivers.     

The Juchatengo complex: an upper-level ophiolite assemblage of late Paleozoic age in Oaxaca,southern Mexico

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The Juchatengo complex (JC) suite is located between the Proterozoic Oaxacan complex to the north and the Xolapa complex to the south, and was amalgamated...     

Impact of model complexity and multi-scale data integration on the estimation of hydrogeological parameters in a dual-porosity aquifer

This study investigates the impact of model complexity and multi-scale prior hydrogeological data on the interpretation of pumping test data in a dual-porosity aquifer (the Chalk aquifer in England, UK). In order to characterize the hydrogeological properties, different approaches ranging from a traditional analytical solution (Theis approach) to more sophisticated numerical models with automatically calibrated input parameters are applied. Comparisons of results from the different approaches show that neither traditional analytical solutions nor a numerical model assuming a homogenous and isotropic aquifer can adequately explain the observed drawdowns. A better reproduction of the observed drawdowns in all seven monitoring locations is instead achieved when medium and local-scale prior information about the vertical hydraulic conductivity (K) distribution is used to constrain the model calibration process. In particular, the integration of medium-scale vertical K variations based on flowmeter measurements lead to an improvement in the goodness-of-fit of the simulated drawdowns of about 30%. Further improvements (up to 70%) were observed when a simple upscaling approach was used to integrate small-scale K data to constrain the automatic calibration process of the numerical model. Although the analysis focuses on a specific case study, these results provide insights about the representativeness of the estimates of hydrogeological properties based on different interpretations of pumping test data, and promote the integration of multi-scale data for the characterization of heterogeneous aquifers in complex hydrogeological settings.     

Modeling the effects of the variability of temperature-related dynamic viscosity on the thermal-affected zone of groundwater heat-pump systems

Thermal perturbation in the subsurface produced in an open-loop groundwater heat pump (GWHP) plant is a complex transport phenomenon affected by several factors, including the exploited aquifer’s hydrogeological and thermal characteristics, well construction features, and the temporal dynamics of the plant’s groundwater abstraction and reinjection system. Hydraulic conductivity has a major influence on heat transport because plume propagation, which occurs primarily through advection, tends to degrade following conductive heat transport and convection within moving water. Hydraulic conductivity is, in turn, influenced by water reinjection because the dynamic viscosity of groundwater varies with temperature. This paper reports on a computational analysis conducted using FEFLOW software to quantify how the thermal-affected zone (TAZ) is influenced by the variation in dynamic viscosity due to reinjected groundwater in a well-doublet scheme. The modeling results demonstrate non-negligible groundwater dynamic-viscosity variation that affects thermal plume propagation in the aquifer. This influence on TAZ calculation was enhanced for aquifers with high intrinsic permeability and/or substantial temperature differences between abstracted and post-heat-pump-reinjected groundwater.

     

Assessment of the acid drainage neutralization capacity and the toxic metals lixiviation of tailing from Guanajuato mining district,Mexico

In Mexico, many environmental problems are generated by large mining activities taking place in several mining districts. These mining activities produce great quantities of residues; large majorities of these have high sulfur content, which could generate acid drainage due to their interaction with the oxygen in the environment. The study area was located in the Mining District of Guanajuato, Mexico with abandoned tailings generated mainly by the gold and silver production. Two areas, called as Monte de San Nicolás (SN) and Peregrina (P) were selected for this study. The results study shows that there was no risk of production of acid drainage, since these tailings contained high amount of carbonates, which neutralized the generation of acidity and consequently decreased the possibility of leaching of some elements. However, not all elements leach in acid pH, as arsenic bound to oxyhydroxides, which is in a basic environment and its increased release by increasing the pH.     

Magma evolution beneath Bequia,Lesser Antilles,deduced from petrology of lavas and plutonic xenoliths

Extrusive and intrusive igneous rocks represent different parts of a magmatic system and ultimately provide complementary information about the processes operating beneath volcanoes. To shed light on such processes, we have examined and quantified the textures and mineral compositions of plutonic and cumulate xenoliths and lavas from Bequia, Lesser Antilles arc. Both suites contain assemblages of iddingsitized olivine, plagioclase, clinopyroxene and spinel with rare orthopyroxene and ilmenite. Mineral zoning is widespread, but more protracted in lavas than xenoliths. Plagioclase cores and olivine have high anorthite (An?≤?98) and low forsterite (Fo?≤?84) compositions respectively, implying crystallisation from a hydrous mafic melt that was already fractionated. Xenolith textures range from adcumulate to orthocumulate with variable mineral crystallisation sequences. Textural criteria are used to organize the xenoliths into six groups. Amphibole, notably absent from lavas, is a common feature of xenoliths, together with minor biotite and apatite. Bulk compositions of xenoliths deviate from the liquid line of descent of lavas supporting a cumulate origin with varying degrees of reactive infiltration by evolved hydrous melts, preserved as melt inclusions in xenolith crystals. Volatile saturation pressures in melt inclusions indicate cumulate crystallization over a 162–571 MPa pressure range under conditions of high dissolved water contents (up to 7.8 wt% H₂O), consistent with a variety of other thermobarometric estimates. Phase assemblages of xenoliths are consistent with published experimental data on volatile-saturated low-magnesium and high-alumina basalts and basaltic andesite from the Lesser Antilles at pressures of 200–1000 MPa, temperatures of 950–1050 °C and dissolved H₂O contents of 4–7 wt%. Once extracted from mid-crustal mushes, residual melts ascend to higher levels and undergo H₂O-saturated crystallization in shallow, pre-eruptive reservoirs to form phenocrysts and glomerocrysts. The absence of amphibole from lavas reflects instability at low pressures, whereas its abundance in xenoliths testifies to its importance in mid-crustal differentiation processes. A complex, vertically extensive (6 to at least 21 km depth) magmatic system is inferred beneath Bequia. Xenoliths represent fragments of the mush incorporated into ascending magmas. The widespread occurrence of evolved melts in the mush, but the absence of erupted evolved magmas, in contrast to islands in the northern Lesser Antilles, may reflect the relative immaturity of the Bequia magmatic system.     

Structure and distribution of the benthic macrofauna on a Northwest African sandy beach close to a freshwater river discharge

The effects of the freshwater discharge of the Oued Sebou River on the macroinfauna, was studied on the sandy beach of Mehdia through the analysis of the abiotic parameters and of the macrozoobenthos. In autumn 2002 and spring 2003, three beach sites, each with two transects, localized at 50, 3500 and 5720 m from the river mouth respectively, were studied. Positive correlations were recorded for beach slope and pH whereas negative ones were obtained for organic matter content and salinity at increasing distances from the river mouth. Significant differences between beach sites and seasons occurred for median grain size, organic matter content and pH. For each beach site, mean macroinfauna abundance varied between 30 and 100 ind.·m⁻² and in spring there was a significant correlation between this parameter and the increasing distance from the river mouth. No significant correlation was instead found between species richness and the increasing distance, although the farthest beach site from the mouth had the highest number of species during both seasons. The results indicated the importance of organic matter content and salinity for the macrofaunal abundance whereas the diversity indices were more affected by beach slope and grain size. The results showed that there was no clear spatial trend in compound indices of the macrofauna across the sampled sites and the influence of the river discharge of Sebou River did not seem to be significant and consistent on the macrobenthos of this mesotidal shore. Comparison with microtidal shores revealed the influence of the tidal excursion and swell characteristics on the response of the benthic structures of sandy beaches to discharges of freshwater.     

Lakes of the Jom-Bolok Volcanoes Valley in the East Sayan Mts., Baikal region

Journal of Geographical Sciences - This article describes the lake basins of the Jom-Bolok volcanic region in the East Sayan (the largest manifestation of the Holocene eruptions in Central Asia)....