Analysis of correlations between time series with the use of the phase spectrum

In connection with the problem of revealing cause-effect relations among different climatic characteristics, methods for determining the dependence between time series on the basis of selected auto-and cross-covariance functions and periodograms expressed in terms of the Fourier coefficients of the initial series are discussed. Real time series do not always satisfy the conditions of statistical stationarity, so that their analysis requires a combination of statistical and deterministic approaches. The possibility of using the above numerical characteristics in relation to such series is considered. Characteristic features of describing finite segments of time series with the use of their Fourier coefficients is studied in detail. The main emphasis is on the determination of the time shifts (delays) at which the covariance between the series is maximal. The problems that appear during a practical implementation of the periodogram method for shift estimation are discussed. A previously unknown formula that is necessary for further studies and relates the Fourier transform of a selected correlation function to the periodogram of the series is derived.     

Water vapor in the atmosphere over the northern Tien Shan

Refined data of systematic measurements of total water vapor in the atmosphere from May 1980 to April 2005 are presented. The data were obtained at the Issyk Kul atmospheric-monitoring station by the method of solar molecular-absorption spectroscopy. Over 25 years, the annual mean water-vapor content in the atmosphere increased by 4.5% at a mean rate of increase of 0.18% per year. However, the water-vapor content decreased in the last five years. The results of statistical processing of experimental data (general statistical characteristics, correlation coefficients, composite oscillations) are described. A refined model is proposed for forecasts of temporal variations in the monthly mean and annual mean water-vapor contents for the coming years. The model includes a linear trend and the sum of oscillations with periods close to the periods of a number of well-known geophysical phenomena. Regression equations are proposed to relate the water-vapor content in the atmospheric column to the surface temperature and absolute humidity.     

Probable gas hydrate/free gas model over western continental margin of India

Multi-channel seismic reflection data from the western continental margin of India (WCMI) have been analyzed to construct a plausible model for gas hydrate formation. A reflector at 2950 ms two way travel time (TWT) on one of the sections is interpreted to represent the base of the layer of the methane hydrate, identified by a bottom simulating reflector (BSR) that lies almost 500 ms beneath the sea floor. BSRs of similar origin are common world wide, where they are usually interpreted to mark the base of gas hydrate bearing clastic sediment, with or without underlying free gas. In this study we present a model with the contrasting physical properties that produce synthetic wavelets that match with the observed BSR amplitude and waveforms for varying source-receiver offsets of multi-channel seismic reflection data. The preliminary results presented here put important constraints on models that predict the distribution and formation of hydrate. Offset-dependent amplitude recovery also gives an appropriate response for hydrate characterization.     

Relationship between the anomalies of temperature and air pressure over the ocean

This paper considers the relationship between multi-year air temperature and pressure fluctuations over the ocean, based on an approximate solution of the problem on the determination of large-scale seawater temperature anomalies from the conditions predominating at the sea surface. The dependence derived is numerically analysed using observations made in the North Atlantic. It is shown that the variability of annual mean air temperature anomalies is largely controlled by the air pressure field which has taken place during the preceding long-term period. The dependence derived may be applied to generate long-term forecasts of the ocean's hydrometeorological regime.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

Transfer-function modelling between environmental variation and mesozooplankton in the Baltic Sea

Time series of freshwater runoff, seawater salinity, temperature and oxygen were used in transfer functions (TF) to model changes of mesozooplankton taxa in the Baltic Sea from the 1960’s to the 1990’s. The models were then compared with long term zooplankton monitoring data from the same period. The TF models for all taxa over the whole Baltic proper and at different depth layers showed statistically significant estimates in t-tests. TF models were further compared using parsimony as a criterion. We present models showing 1) r² > 0.4, 2) the smallest residual standard error with the combination of exploratory variables, 3) the lowest number of parameters and 4) the highest proportional decrease in error term when the TF model residual standard error was compared with those of the univariate ARIMA model of the same response variable. Most often (7 taxa out of a total of 8), zooplankton taxa were dependent on freshwater runoff and/or seawater salinity. Cladocerans and estuarine copepods were more conveniently modelled through the inclusion of seawater temperature and oxygen data as independent variables. Our modelling, however, explains neither the overall increase in zooplankton abundance nor a simultaneous decrease found in the neritic copepod, Temora longicornis. Therefore, biotic controlling agents (e.g. nutrients, primary production and planktivore diets) are suggested as independent variables for further TF modelling. TF modelling enabled us to put the controlling factors in a time frame. It was then possible, despite the inherent multiple correlation among parameters studied to deduce a chain-of-events from the environmental controls and biotic feedback mechanisms to changes in zooplankton species. We suggest that the documented long-term changes in zooplankton could have been driven by climatic regulation only. The control by climate could be mediated to zooplankton through marine chemical and physical factors, as well as biotic factors if all of these were responding to the same external control, such as changes in the freshwater runoff. Increased runoff would explain both the increasing eutrophication, causing the overall increase of zooplankton, and the changes in selective predation, contributing to decline of Temora.     

Effect of ice cover on oscillations of fluid in a closed basin

Within the framework of the linear theory of long waves, the problem of the effect of ice cover on seiche oscillations of fluid in a two-dimensional constant-depth basin is solved. The eigenfrequencies and eigenfunctions of seiche oscillations are obtained for different boundary conditions at ice edges: rigid coupling and free edges. The forced oscillations of fluid and ice under the action of a moving disturbance of atmospheric pressure are investigated. The change in the stress of ice bending is considered and it is shown that the coast ice can be broken.     

Three-parameter model of turbulence for the atmospheric boundary layer over an urbanized surface

A modified three-parameter model of turbulence for a thermally stratified atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is presented. The model is based on tensor-invariant parametrizations for the pressure-strain and pressure-temperature correlations that are more complete than the parametrizations used in the Mellor-Yamada model of level 3.0. The turbulent momentum and heat fluxes are calculated with explicit algebraic models obtained with the aid of symbol algebra from the transport equations for momentum and heat fluxes in the approximation of weakly equilibrium turbulence. The turbulent transport of heat and momentum fluxes is assumed to be negligibly small in this approximation. The three-parameter E ? ε ? 2> model of thermally stratified turbulence is employed to obtain closed-form algebraic expressions for the fluxes. A computational test of a 24-h ABL evolution is implemented for an idealized two-dimensional region. Comparison of the computed results with the available observational data and other numerical models shows that the proposed model is able to reproduce both the most important structural features of the turbulence in an urban canopy layer near the urbanized ABL surface and the effect of urban roughness on a global structure of the fields of wind and temperature over a city. The results of the computational test for the new model indicate that the motion of air in the urban canopy layer is strongly influenced by mechanical factors (buildings) and thermal stratification.     

Electronic atlas of the Russian Arctic coastal zone

A set of digital maps including geology, Quaternary sediments, landscapes, engineering-geological, vegetation, geocryological and the series of regional sources have been selected to characterize the Russian Arctic coast. Based on this data, new maps of engineering geocryological zoning and zoning of the coast with respect to the intensity of exogenous geological processes and risk of technogenic impacts have been generated at the scales of 1:4,000,000–1:8,000,000. These maps are a tool to assess the impact of industry on the Arctic coast of the country.