Secondary phase validation—Phase classification by polarization

A long-standing problem in operational seismology is that of reliable focal depth estimation. Standard analyst practice is to pick and identify a ‘phase’ in the P-coda. This picking will always produce a depth estimate but without any validation it cannot be trusted. In this article we ‘hunt’ for standard depth phases like pP, sP and/or PmP but unlike the analyst we use Bayes statistics for classifying the probability that polarization characteristics of pickings belong to one of the mentioned depth phases given preliminary epicenter information. In this regard we describe a general-purpose PC implementation of the Bayesian methodology that can deal with complex nonlinear models in a flexible way. The models are represented by a data-flow diagram that may be manipulated by the analyst through a graphical-programming environment. An analytic signal representation is used with the imaginary part being the Hilbert transform of the signal itself. The pickings are in terms of a plot of posterior probabilities as a function of time for pP, Sp or PmP being within the presumed azimuth and incident angle sectors for given preliminary epicenter locations. We have tested this novel focal depth estimation procedure on explosion and earthquake recordings from Cossack Ranger II stations in Karelia, NW Russia, and with encouraging results. For example, pickings deviating more than 5° off ‘true’ azimuth are rejected while Pn-incident angle estimate exhibit considerable scatter. A comprehensive test of our approach is not quite easy as recordings from so-called Ground Truth events are elusive.     

Numerical reconstruction of trajectory of small-size surface drifter in the Mediterranean sea

In this study, we addressed the effects of wind-induced drift on Lagrangian trajectories of surface sea objects using high-resolution ocean forecast and atmospheric data. Application of stochastic Leeway model for prediction of trajectories drift was considered for the numerical reconstruction of the Elba accident that occurred during the period 21.06.2009–22.06.2009: a person on an inflatable raft was lost in the vicinity of the Elba Island coast; from the initial position, the person on a raft drifted southwards in the open sea and later he was found on a partially deflated raft during rescue operation. For geophysical forcing, we used high-resolution currents from the Mediterranean Forecasting System and atmospheric wind from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. To investigate the effect of wind on trajectory behavior, numerical simulations were performed using different categories of drifter-like particles similar to a person on an inflatable raft. An algorithm of spatial clustering was used to differentiate the most probable search areas with a high density of particles. Our results showed that the simulation scenarios using particles with characteristics of draft-limited sea drifters provided better prediction of an observed trajectory in terms of the probability density of particles.     

Total mercury in terrestrial systems (air-soil-plant-water) at the mining region of San Joaquín,Queretaro, Mexico

Deficient management of cinnabar mining left the San Joaquín region with high concentrations of mercury in its soils (2.4 – 4164 mg kg^-1). Numerous cinnabar mines have contributed to the dispersion of mercury into agricultural (0.5 –314 mg kg^-1) and forest (0.2 – 69 mg kg^-1) soils. Sediments are a natural means of transportation for mercury, causing its spreading, especially in areas near mine entrances (0.6 – 687 mg kg^-1). The nearness of maize crops to mines favors mercury accumulation in the different plant structures, such as roots, stems, leaves, and grain (0.04 – 8.2 mg kg^-1); these being related to mercury volatilization and accumulation in soils. Mercury vapor present in the settlements could indicate a constant volatilization from lands and soils (22 – 153 ng m^-3). The mercury levels found in the soils, in maize grain, and in the air resulted greater than the standards reported by the Official Mexican Norm (NOM) and the World Health Organization (WHO). Mercury in rainwater is due mainly to the presence of suspended atmospheric particles, later deposited on the surface (1.5 – 339 μg |^-1). Mercury dissolution was found in the drinking water (10 – 170 ng |^-1), with concentrations below those established by the NOM and the WHO. The contamination existing in the San Joaquín region does not reach the levels of the world’s greatest mercury producers: Almaden (Spain) and Idrija (Slovenia). It is, however, like that found in other important second degree world producers such as Guizhou (China). The population of San Joaquín, as well as its surrounding environment, are constantly exposed to mercury contamination, thus making a long term monitoring necessary to determine its effects, especially to people.     

Stepwise selection of functional covariates in forecasting peak levels of olive pollen

High levels of airborne olive pollen represent a problem for a large proportion of the population because of the many allergies it causes. Many attempts have been made to forecast the concentration of airborne olive pollen, using methods such as time series, linear regression, neural networks, a combination of fuzzy systems and neural networks, and functional models. This paper presents a functional logistic regression model used to study the relationship between olive pollen concentration and different climatic factors, and on this basis to predict the probability of high (and possibly extreme) levels of airborne pollen, selecting the best subset of functional climatic variables by means of a stepwise method based on the conditional likelihood ratio test.     

Study of Local Seismic Events in Lithuania and Adjacent Areas Using Data from the PASSEQ Experiment

The territory of Lithuania and adjacent areas of the East European Craton have always been considered a region of low seismicity. Two recent earthquakes with magnitudes of more than 5 in the Kaliningrad District (Russian Federation) on 21 September 2004 motivated re-evaluation of the seismic hazard in Lithuania and adjacent territories. A new opportunity to study seismicity in the region is provided by the PASSEQ (Pasive Seismic Experiment) project that aimed to study the lithosphere–asthenosphere structure around the Trans-European Suture Zone. Twenty-six seismic stations of the PASSEQ temporary seismic array were installed in the territory of Lithuania. The stations recorded a number of local and regional seismic events originating from Lithuania and adjacent areas. This data can be used to answer the question of whether there exist seismically active tectonic zones in Lithuania that could be potentially hazardous for critical industrial facilities. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to find any natural tectonic seismic events in Lithuania and to obtain more general view of seismicity in the region. In order to do this, we make a manual review of the continuous data recorded by the PASSEQ seismic stations in Lithuania. From the good quality data, we select and relocate 45 local seismic events using the well-known LocSAT and VELEST location algortithms. In order to discriminate between possible natural events, underwater explosions and on-shore blasts, we analyse spatial distribution of epicenters and temporal distribution of origin times and perform both visual analysis of waveforms and spectral analysis of recordings. We show that the relocated seismic events can be grouped into five clusters (groups) according to their epicenter coordinates and origin and that several seismic events might be of tectonic origin. We also show that several events from the off-shore region in the Baltic Sea (at the coasts of the Kaliningrad District of the Russian Federation) are non-volcanic tremors, although the origin of these tremor-type events is not clear.     

Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay’s normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.     

Soil acidity adaptive control problem

Problem of soil acidity regularization is modeled as stochastic adaptive control problem with a linear difference equation of the dynamics of a field pH level. Stochastic component in the equation represents an individual time variability of soil acidity of an elementary section. We use Bayesian approach to determine a posteriori probability density function of the unknown parameters of the stochastic transition process. The Kullback–Leibler information divergence is used as a measure of difference between true distribution and its estimation. Algorithm for the construction of an adaptive stabilizing control in such a linear control system is proposed in the paper. Numerical realization of the algorithm is represented for a problem of a field soil acidity control.     

Testing potential bias in marine plankton respiration rates by dark bottle incubations in the NW Iberian shelf: incubation time and bottle volume

The accurate determination of the balance between plankton production and respiration in the ocean is important for C budgets and global change predictions. Disagreements on the measurement of such a balance at different scales (from microbiological to biogeochemical) have produced a controversy over the trophic status of the ocean. This is especially striking in the oligotrophic open ocean, where plankton community O₂ consumption rates in 24 h incubations have frequently produced a net heterotrophic balance, but similar difficulties emerge in coastal systems. These results have been criticised due to the possibility that the standard 24 h in vitro incubations are biased because of the long incubation time needed and the so-called “bottle effect”.To study the influence of the incubation time and bottle volume on the measurement of plankton net metabolism, we carried out several time series experiments in the NW Iberian coastal system. Here we present measurements of plankton community respiration rates concurrently obtained through (1) standard in vitro changes in dissolved oxygen concentration after different incubation times ranging from 2 to 48 h, and with bottle volumes of 50, 125 and 570 mL, and (2) the decrease in the oxygen concentration measured every 20 s with oxygen microsensors, during 48 h. Our results refute the contention that 24 h dark 125 mL bottle incubations are systematically biased, and highlight the validity of oxygen microsensors to study the dynamics of natural marine plankton respiration.