A DEM-based evaluation of potential flood risk to enhance decision support system for safe evacuation

A practical, DEM-based practical method is proposed to enhance flood risk management in fluvial areas by quantifying relative risk as a function of vulnerability to inland and evacuation difficulty. Both measures are based mainly on the topography of the region, so the method does not require detailed data on the physical characteristics of the land. First, we use the deterministic 8-node method on a digital elevation map (DEM) to trace storm waterways. Second, we repeat the process on a reversed DEM to trace evacuation routes that avoid the waterways and zones dangerously close to the rivers. Finally, on the basis of such two flow lines of evacuee and storm water, we proposed the protocol to evaluate the flood risk at every point on the map taking into account both the minimum time required for floodwater to arrive and duration of an evacuation from that location. The time that must be allocated for safe evacuation is defined as the potential flood risk of evacuation (PFRE). The method is demonstrated on a fluvial area of the Kaki River in Nagaoka city, Japan. In addition, we illustrated the application of the PFRE map to divide the region into areas of greater or lesser evacuation urgency.     

Analysis of Circular Elastic Plate Resting on Pasternak Foundation by Strain Energy Approach

In this paper, an analytical expression for the deflection of a thin circular elastic plate resting on the Pasternak foundation is derived by adopting the strain energy approach. The parametric study is carried out to observe the location of the plate lift-off and the variation of the deflection profiles for comparing the variation pattern reported in the literature based on an approximate solution technique. It is found that the radial distance of the point of lift-off of the plate decreases with increase in the values of both the shear modulus and the modulus of subgrade reaction of the foundation soil; the reduction being more for their lower values. It is also observed that the variation in deflection of the plate at any radial distance due to change in soil subgrade conditions is significant for lower values of modulus of subgrade reaction.     

Assessment of deforestation,biodiversity loss and the associated factors: case study of Ijesa-Ekiti region of Southwestern Nigeria

Deforestation is driven by a variety of factors, and has resulted in land use changes that threaten biodiversity, water and energy resources. However, lack of reliable data and survey information in Nigeria has made the estimation of the effect of deforestation difficult to establish. Consequently, the extent and rate of deforestation are less well known. The study therefore, examined and analyzed the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation over the period of 25 years (1978–2003); measured the rates, trends and explained the factors that determined deforestation in Ijesa-Ekiti region of southwestern Nigeria. The major sources of data for the study were satellites images. These were Landsat MSS 1978, with spatial resolution of 80 m, SPOT XS 1986, SPOT XS 1994, with 20 m spatial resolution and NigeriaSat_1 2003, with 32 m spatial resolution. To make them comparable, they were georeferenced to the same coordinates system, filtered, resampled and enhanced for visualization in a GIS environment. Furthermore, Ilesa, Ijebu-Ijesa, Efon-Alaaye, Iloko-Ijesa, Erin-Oke and Erin-Ijesa were identified and selected for ground truthing to validate the tonal values recorded in the images with the features on the ground. The result of ground truthing was combined with visual image interpretation as training sites for supervised classification. Focus Group Discussions were held with people who had lived in the area for over 20 years as a means of eliciting factors of deforestation and the effects on forest biodiversity. The results indicated forest loss of 53,469.23 ha over the period of 25 years at an annual deforestation rate of 7.21, 2.47, and 5.40% per year for 1978–1986, 1986–1994 and 1994–2003, respectively. FGDs with various categories of people in the bigger towns confirmed deforestation in the area and were due to illegal lumbering, intensive agricultural practices and growth of settlements resulted from increase in human population. FGDs also revealed extinction of many forest species in their communities. In conclusion, the study advanced our understanding on techniques of analyzing deforestation using geo-spatial technology. It also generated a synthesis of information on the rates of deforestation and its driving forces, which are a complex mix of anthropogenic factors, the chief of which has been the conversion of forest resources to agricultural land use.     

Trace metals in porewater of surface sediments and their bioavailability in Jiaozhou Bay,Qingdao, China

Samples of porewater and the edible tissue of mottled clams, Ruditapes variegatus, were collected simultaneously at each of 12 stations from Jiaozhou Bay near Qingdao, China, in June of 2003. Chemical analysis focused on trace metals and major elements. Porewater concentrations of Cd, Cr, Pb, and Zn were distributed in a bimodal fashion among the 12 stations, with mean concentrations at six of the stations being 8–32 times mean values at the other six stations. The concentrations of the same metals in clams were remarkably similar among stations, the coefficients of variation being only 12–37%. Calculations performed with the computer program PHREEQC indicated that Pb and Cr in porewater were present only in the +2 and +3 states, respectively, and because dissolved Cd and Zn exist only in the +2 state, the bimodal distribution of these four metals likely reflects secondary effects associated with their scavenging by Fe and/or Mn under oxidizing conditions and subsequent dissolution in the reducing environment of the porewaters. Consistent with this hypothesis is the fact that the distribution of high and low metal concentrations was closely correlated with the granularity of the sediment, with lower metal concentrations associated with relatively coarse sediment. Comparison of published biological concentration factors with the ratios of metal concentrations in the clams to porewater metal concentrations indicated that the porewaters were not the primary sources of the metals in the clams. Mixing processes in the bay likely account for the rather uniform concentrations of metals in clam tissue.     

Probabilistic Methods Applied to Unsaturated Numerical Modeling

The numerical modeling of unsaturated soil processes is becoming more prevalent worldwide. Although numerical modeling is becoming increasingly accepted in geotechnical engineering practice, care must be exercised and improper modeling techniques and procedures must be avoided. Many issues such as nodal resolution and imperfect convergence can result in inaccurate solutions. Unfortunately, analyses of highly nonlinear unsaturated soil flow and slope stability models can significantly increase the modeling time required. As a result, there is a trend to reduce the number of model runs. Results are often presented to client as single model runs or simplistic sensitivity analysis. This paper presents methodologies for applying probabilistic methods to unsaturated soils seepage and slope stability analysis models. The focus is on the application of the alternative point estimate method to practical problems in such a way as to minimize the number of model runs. The demonstration of a successful application to a waste rock pile is presented.     

Carbonate cements in Miller field of the UK North Sea: a natural analog for mineral trapping in CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> geological storage

Miller field of the North Sea has had high concentrations of natural CO₂ for ~70 Ma. It is an ideal analog for the long-term fate of CO₂ during engineered storage, particularly for formation of carbonate minerals that permanently lock up CO₂ in solid form. The Brae Formation reservoir sandstone contains an unusually high quantity of calcite concretions; however, C and O stable isotopic signatures suggest that these are not related to the present-day CO₂ charge. Margins of the concretions are corroded, probably because of reduced pH due to CO₂ influx. Dispersed calcite cements are also present, some of which postdate the CO₂ charge and, therefore, are the products of mineral trapping. It is calculated that only a minority of the reservoired CO₂ in Miller (6–24%) has been sequestrated in carbonates, even after 70 Ma of CO₂ emplacement. Most of the CO₂ accumulation is dissolved in pore fluids. Therefore, in a reservoir similar to the Brae Formation, engineered CO₂ storage must rely on physical retention mechanisms because mineral trapping is both incomplete and slow.     

Biocalcification in the Eastern Oyster (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Crassostrea virginica)</Emphasis> in Relation to Long-term Trends in Chesapeake Bay pH

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduce pH of marine waters due to the absorption of atmospheric CO₂ and formation of carbonic acid. Estuarine waters are more susceptible to acidification because they are subject to multiple acid sources and are less buffered than marine waters. Consequently, estuarine shell forming species may experience acidification sooner than marine species although the tolerance of estuarine calcifiers to pH changes is poorly understood. We analyzed 23 years of Chesapeake Bay water quality monitoring data and found that daytime average pH significantly decreased across polyhaline waters although pH has not significantly changed across mesohaline waters. In some tributaries that once supported large oyster populations, pH is increasing. Current average conditions within some tributaries however correspond to values that we found in laboratory studies to reduce oyster biocalcification rates or resulted in net shell dissolution. Calcification rates of juvenile eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, were measured in laboratory studies in a three-way factorial design with 3 pH levels, two salinities, and two temperatures. Biocalcification declined significantly with a reduction of ∼0.5 pH units and higher temperature and salinity mitigated the decrease in biocalcification.     

Interactions between basalts and oil source rocks in rift basins： CO2 generation

Basalts interbedded with oil source rocks are discovered frequently in rift basins of eastern China, where CO2 is found in reservoirs around or within basalts, for example in the Binnan reservoir of the Dongying Depression. In the reservoirs, CO2 with heavy carbon isotopic composition (δ13C>-10‰ PDB) is in most cases accounts for 40% of the total gas reserve, and is believed to have resulted from degassing of basaltic magma from the mantle. In their investigations of the Binnan reservoir, the authors suggested that the CO2 would result from interactions between the source rocks and basalts. As the source rocks around basalts are rich in carbonate minerals, volcanic minerals, transition metals and organic matter, during their burial history some of the transition metals were catalyzed on the thermal degradation of organic matter into hydrocarbons and on the decomposition of carbonate minerals into CO2, which was reproduced in thermal simulations of the source rocks with the transition metals (Ni and Co). This kind of CO2 accounts for 55%-85% of the total gas reserve generated in the process of thermal simulation, and its δ13C values range from -11‰- -7.2‰ PDB, which are very similar to those of CO2 found in the Binnan reservoir. The co-generation of CO2 and hydrocarbon gases makes it possible their accumulation together in one trap. In other words, if the CO2 resulted directly from degassing of basaltic magma or was derived from the mantle, it could not be accumulated with hydrocarbon gases because it came into the basin much earlier than hydrocarbon generation and much earlier than trap formation. Therefore, the source rocks around basalts generated hydrocarbons and CO2 simultaneously through catalysis of Co and Ni transition metals, which is useful for the explanation of co-accumulation of hydrocarbon gases and CO2 in rift basins in eastern China.     

A model for estimating the value of sampling programs and the optimal number of samples for contaminated soil

A model is presented for estimating the value of information of sampling programs for contaminated soil. The purpose is to calculate the optimal number of samples when the objective is to estimate the mean concentration. A Bayesian risk–cost–benefit decision analysis framework is applied and the approach is design-based. The model explicitly includes sample uncertainty at a complexity level that can be applied to practical contaminated land problems with limited amount of data. Prior information about the contamination level is modelled by probability density functions. The value of information is expressed in monetary terms. The most cost-effective sampling program is the one with the highest expected net value. The model was applied to a contaminated scrap yard in Göteborg, Sweden, contaminated by metals. The optimal number of samples was determined to be in the range of 16–18 for a remediation unit of 100 m². Sensitivity analysis indicates that the perspective of the decision-maker is important, and that the cost of failure and the future land use are the most important factors to consider. The model can also be applied for other sampling problems, for example, sampling and testing of wastes to meet landfill waste acceptance procedures.     

Synthesis,characterization of CdS/rectorite nanocomposites and its photocatalytic activity

CdS/rectorite nanocomposite was synthesized via a cation-exchange reaction followed by a sulfurization process. The obtained samples were characterized by using X-ray diffraction (XRD), fourier transform infrared spectra (FTIR), transmission electron microscope (TEM), UV-Vis diffuse reflectance spectra (DRS), and thermal analysis. The measured results indicate that CdS species in the composites exist in the form of pillars and nanoparticles, the crystallized CdS particles are in the hexagonal symmetry. The photocatalytic activities of the pillared nanocomposite were enhanced significantly comparing with the bare rectorite and the pure CdS. Moreover, the photostabilities of the obtained nanocomposites are also better than that of the pure CdS due to the hosts retard the photocorrosion of the CdS.