Using ocean quahog (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Arctica islandica</Emphasis>) shells to reconstruct palaeoenvironment in Öresund,Kattegat and Skagerrak,Sweden

Shells of Arctica islandica collected between 1884 and 2004 from Öresund, Kattegat and Skagerrak (Swedish West Coast) were used to monitor local climate variations and the influence of human activities on the local environment. For this purpose, we analysed the growth, structure and chemical composition of these shells and compared them with shells collected from Kiel Bay, Norway and Iceland. The growth rate of the studied shells registers an NAO periodicity of ca 8 years. However, the observed signal is weak because of other environmental interferences that are either of natural or anthropogenic origin. For example, the oxygen isotope ratios show temperature fluctuation, but also the influx of low salinity water. Higher contents of S, N, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and P in shell portions formed during the last century are related to human activities such as mining and industrial development. Our study indicates that in order to use Arctica shells as archives of climate change it is necessary to study the full range of environmental data that is recorded in the shells by using a multi element and isotope approach in combination with different analytical techniques including investigation of growth rates and shell structure.     

Soil erosion and its response to the changes of precipitation and vegetation cover on the Loess Plateau

Soil erosion is a major threat to our terrestrial ecosystems and an important global environmental problem. The Loess Plateau in China is one of the regions that suffered more severe soil erosion and undergoing climate warming and drying in the past decades. The vegetation restoration named Grain-to-Green Program has now been operating for more than 10 years. It is necessary to assess the variation of soil erosion and the response of precipita- tion and vegetation restoration to soil erosion on the Loess Plateau. In the study, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation （RUSLE） was applied to evaluate annual soil loss caused by water erosion. The results showed as follows. The soil erosion on the Loess Plateau between 2000 and 2010 averaged for 15.2 t hm-2 a 1 and was characterized as light for the value less than 25 t hm-2 a-1. The severe soil erosion higher than 25 t hm-2 a-~ was mainly distributed in the gully and hilly regions in the central, southwestern, and some scattered areas of earth-rocky mountainous areas on the Loess Plateau. The soil erosion on the Loess Plateau showed a deceasing trend in recent decade and reduced more at rates more than 1 t hm 2 a 1 in the areas suffering severe soil loss. Benefited from the improved vegetation cover and ecological construction, the soil erosion on the Loess Plateau was significantly declined, es- pecially in the east of Yulin, most parts of Yah＇an prefectures in Shaanxi Province, and the west of Luliang and Linfen prefectures in Shanxi Province in the hilly and gully regions. The variation of vegetation cover responding to soil erosion in these areas showed the relatively higher contribution than the precipitation. However, most areas in Qingyang and Dingxi pre- fectures in Gansu Province and Guyuan in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region were predomi- nantly related to precipitation.     

An OLS regression model for context-aware tile prefetching in a web map cache

The increasing popularity of web map services has motivated the development of more scalable services in the spatial data infrastructures. Tiled map services have emerged as a scalable alternative to traditional map services. Instead of rendering map images on the fly, a collection of pre-generated image tiles can be served very fast from a server-side cache. However, during the start-up of the service, the cache is initially empty and users experience a poor quality of service. Tile prefetching attempts to improve hit rates by proactively fetching map images without waiting for client requests.

While most popular prefetching policies in traditional web caching consider only the previous access history to make predictions, significant improvements could be achieved in web mapping by taking into account the background geographic information.

This work proposes a regressive model to predict which areas are likely to be requested in the future based on spatial cross-correlation between an unconstrained catalog of geographic features and a record of past cache requests. Tiles that are anticipated to be most frequently requested can be pre-generated and cached for faster retrieval. Trace-driven simulations with several million cache requests from two different nation-wide public web map services in Spain demonstrate that accurate predictions and performance gains can be obtained with the proposed model.     

Stepwise selection of functional covariates in forecasting peak levels of olive pollen

High levels of airborne olive pollen represent a problem for a large proportion of the population because of the many allergies it causes. Many attempts have been made to forecast the concentration of airborne olive pollen, using methods such as time series, linear regression, neural networks, a combination of fuzzy systems and neural networks, and functional models. This paper presents a functional logistic regression model used to study the relationship between olive pollen concentration and different climatic factors, and on this basis to predict the probability of high (and possibly extreme) levels of airborne pollen, selecting the best subset of functional climatic variables by means of a stepwise method based on the conditional likelihood ratio test.     

Forecasting tsunamis in Poverty Bay, New Zealand, with deep-ocean gauges

The response/transfer function of a coastal site to a remote open-ocean point is introduced, with the intent to directly convert open-ocean measurements into the wave time history at the site. We show that the tsunami wave at the site can be predicted as the wave is measured in the open ocean as far as 1,000+ km away from the site, with a straightforward computation which can be performed almost instantaneously. The suggested formalism is demonstrated for the purpose of tsunami forecasting in Poverty Bay, in the Gisborne region of New Zealand. Directional sensitivity of the site response due to different conditions for the excitation of the shelf and the bay’s normal modes is investigated and used to explain tsunami observations. The suggested response function formalism is validated with available records of the 2010 Chilean tsunami at Gisborne tide gauge and at the nearby deep-ocean assessment and reporting of tsunamis (DART) station 54401. The suggested technique is also demonstrated by hindcasting the 2011 Tohoku tsunami and 2012 Haida Gwaii tsunami at Monterey Bay, CA, using an offshore record of each tsunami at DART station 46411.     

Study of Local Seismic Events in Lithuania and Adjacent Areas Using Data from the PASSEQ Experiment

The territory of Lithuania and adjacent areas of the East European Craton have always been considered a region of low seismicity. Two recent earthquakes with magnitudes of more than 5 in the Kaliningrad District (Russian Federation) on 21 September 2004 motivated re-evaluation of the seismic hazard in Lithuania and adjacent territories. A new opportunity to study seismicity in the region is provided by the PASSEQ (Pasive Seismic Experiment) project that aimed to study the lithosphere–asthenosphere structure around the Trans-European Suture Zone. Twenty-six seismic stations of the PASSEQ temporary seismic array were installed in the territory of Lithuania. The stations recorded a number of local and regional seismic events originating from Lithuania and adjacent areas. This data can be used to answer the question of whether there exist seismically active tectonic zones in Lithuania that could be potentially hazardous for critical industrial facilities. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to find any natural tectonic seismic events in Lithuania and to obtain more general view of seismicity in the region. In order to do this, we make a manual review of the continuous data recorded by the PASSEQ seismic stations in Lithuania. From the good quality data, we select and relocate 45 local seismic events using the well-known LocSAT and VELEST location algortithms. In order to discriminate between possible natural events, underwater explosions and on-shore blasts, we analyse spatial distribution of epicenters and temporal distribution of origin times and perform both visual analysis of waveforms and spectral analysis of recordings. We show that the relocated seismic events can be grouped into five clusters (groups) according to their epicenter coordinates and origin and that several seismic events might be of tectonic origin. We also show that several events from the off-shore region in the Baltic Sea (at the coasts of the Kaliningrad District of the Russian Federation) are non-volcanic tremors, although the origin of these tremor-type events is not clear.     

Predictive modeling of the permafrost thermal regime in Russian railroad subgrade support systems

The goal of a predictive thermotechnical calculation is to model the behavior of the top permafrost boundary under current operational conditions as well as increasing average annual air temperatures that results in degradation of the permafrost layer. Numerical modeling was used to assess the efficient application of construction measures to create sustainable operation of the railroad. The numerical modeling was carried out in the programming complex FEM-models developed by geotechnical engineers of St. Petersburg, Russia under Prof. V. M. Ulitsky’s guidance. The Termoground Program as a part of the FEM-models enables the research of freezing, heaving and thawing in different design solutions. Research was carried out in space resolution for a year cycle. The performed model has shown that the designing measures accepted for permafrost protection from retreat in the subgrade support were generally effective.     

砂土液化大变形本构模型的三维化及其数值实现

基于砂土液化大变形机理和适用于二维条件的边界面弹塑性本构模型,发展了符合三维应力空间中边界面和剪胀面上的应力映射规则,建立了三维应力空间中砂土液化大变形本构模型.针对模型特点采用半显式的Cutting Plane算法进行应力积分,并采用Pegasus求根算法根据映射规则计算边界面上的应力映射点,在OpenSees开源有限元平台上实现了三维模型的数值化.结合完全耦合的u-p格式有限元单元,对饱和砂土不排水循环扭剪试验进行了模拟,并进行了一个真三维倾斜地基的动力反应分析.计算结果表明模型和所采用的数值算法具有很好的模拟和分析三维条件下砂土液化后大变形的能力.     

滑坡稳定性评价中地震作用力计算的讨论

阐述了目前国内外在滑坡地震稳定性评价方面的理论研究成果和实际应用情况,指出地质矿产行业规范在采用静力法计算地震力时没有乘以0.25的综合影响系数,和其它规范的差别是巨大的.分析后认为这个规定是值得商榷的.最后根据宏观震害现象提出易引起滑坡的地质情况并对其进行了分析,为滑坡治理工程设计和以后的规范修编提供了方法和思路.     

不同掏蚀深度下古城墙的稳定性数值分析

以浙江良渚古城的宽顶古场面墙稳定性问题为研究对象,本文针对古城墙可能出现的不同深度的风沙掏蚀的实际工况,通过有限差分软件FLAC3D,建立计算模型进行了稳定性分析,探讨了不同掏蚀深度下城墙破坏机理和规律.研究表明:当城墙墙根掏蚀深度不是很大时,城墙整体稳定,土体开始出现比较小的位移量,掏蚀部位及其周围出现局部塑性破坏现象.随着掏蚀深度的增加,城墙塑性破坏区域不断向城墙体内部、顶部及顶部后缘范围发展,城墙上的土体位移量随着掏蚀深度的增加而呈数量级的增加,直至城墙出现整体崩塌破坏.掏蚀作用加剧了地震作用下城墙体的破坏,在掏蚀部位形成潜在破坏口,内部形成塑性贯通区,造成墙体整体崩塌.