Reflections on Progression in Learning about Place

This commentary is a response to Larsen and Harrington's article titled "Developing a Learning Progression for Place" (2018). Within the author focuses learning progressions, subject structure, and the challenge of place complexity.     

Sedimentological and Geomorphological Impacts of The Jökulhlaup (Glacial Outburst Flood) In January 2002 At Kverkfjöll, Northern Iceland

Jökulhlaups (glacial outburst floods) are common hazards in many glaciated environments. However, research on the controls on the sedimentological and geomorphological impact of jökulhlaups is rare. Developing a more comprehensive understanding of flood impacts may be useful for hazard identification, prediction and mitigation. This study determines the controls on the sedimentological and geomorphological impact of a jökulhlaup in January 2002 at Kverkfjöll, northern Iceland. This jökulhlaup, caused by geothermal activity, reached a peak discharge of 490 m³s^?1 as recorded at a permanent gauging station 40 km downstream from the glacier snout. However, reconstructed peak discharges in the proximal part of the jökulhlaup channel near the glacier snout indicate a peak discharge of 2590 m³s^?1. The jökulhlaup hydrograph was characterized by a rapid rising stage and a more gradual falling stage. As a result, sedimentary and geomorphological impacts included poorly sorted, structureless, matrix‐supported deposits; massive sand units; clast‐supported units; ice‐proximal cobbles, rip‐up clasts and kettle‐holes; and steep‐sided kettle‐holes. These features are proposed to be characteristic of rapid rising stage deposition. Additionally, large‐scale gravel bars and bedload sheets prograded and migrated during the rapid rising stage. The development of these bedforms was facilitated by high bedload transport rates, due to high discharge acceleration rates during the rapid rising stage. During the more prolonged falling stage, there was sufficient time for sediment incision and erosion to occur, exhuming cobbles, ice blocks and rip‐up clasts, and creating well‐defined terrace surfaces. This study provides a clearer understanding of hydrological and sedimentological processes and mechanisms operating during jökulhlaups, and helps to identify flood hazards more accurately, which is fundamental for hazard management and minimizing risk.     

The Winchcombe fireball—That lucky survivor

On February 28, 2021, a fireball dropped ∼0.6 kg of recovered CM2 carbonaceous chondrite meteorites in South-West England near the town of Winchcombe. We reconstruct the fireball's atmospheric trajectory, light curve, fragmentation behavior, and pre-atmospheric orbit from optical records contributed by five networks. The progenitor meteoroid was three orders of magnitude less massive (∼13 kg) than any previously observed carbonaceous fall. The Winchcombe meteorite survived entry because it was exposed to a very low peak atmospheric dynamic pressure (∼0.6 MPa) due to a fortuitous combination of entry parameters, notably low velocity (13.9 km s⁻¹). A near-catastrophic fragmentation at ∼0.07 MPa points to the body's fragility. Low entry speeds which cause low peak dynamic pressures are likely necessary conditions for a small carbonaceous meteoroid to survive atmospheric entry, strongly constraining the radiant direction to the general antapex direction. Orbital integrations show that the meteoroid was injected into the near-Earth region ∼0.08 Myr ago and it never had a perihelion distance smaller than ∼0.7 AU, while other CM2 meteorites with known orbits approached the Sun closer (∼0.5 AU) and were heated to at least 100 K higher temperatures.     

Likely effects of construction of Scroby Sands offshore wind farm on a mixed population of harbour Phoca vitulina and grey Halichoerus grypus seals

Scroby Sands offshore wind farm was built close to a haul-out and breeding site for harbour seal, a species of conservation concern. An aerial survey programme conducted during a five-year period spanning wind farm construction, revealed a significant post-construction decline in haul-out counts. Multivariate model selection suggested that the decline was not related to the environmental factors considered, nor did it mirror wider population trends. Although cause and effect could not be unequivocally established, the theoretical basis of hearing in pinnipeds and previous studies suggested that extreme noise (to 257 dB re 1 μ Pa(pp) @ 1m) generated by pile-driving of turbine bases led to displacement of seals. A lack of full recovery of harbour seal during the study was also linked to their sensitivity to vessel activity and/or rapid colonisation of competing grey seal. Any impact of offshore wind farm development upon pinnipeds would be much reduced without pile-driving.     

Sensitivity of an ecosystem model to hydrology and temperature

We tested the sensitivity of a dynamic ecosystem model (LPJ-GUESS) to the representation of soil moisture and soil temperature and to uncertainties in the prediction of precipitation and air temperature. We linked the ecosystem model with an advanced hydrological model (JULES) and used its soil moisture and soil temperature as input into the ecosystem model. We analysed these sensitivities along a latitudinal gradient in northern Russia. Differences in soil temperature and soil moisture had only little influence on the vegetation carbon fluxes, whereas the soil carbon fluxes were very sensitive to the JULES soil estimations. The sensitivity changed with latitude, showing stronger influence in the more northern grid cell. The sensitivity of modelled responses of both soil carbon fluxes and vegetation carbon fluxes to uncertainties in soil temperature were high, as both soil and vegetation carbon fluxes were strongly impacted. In contrast, uncertainties in the estimation of the amount of precipitation had little influence on the soil or vegetation carbon fluxes. The high sensitivity of soil respiration to soil temperature and moisture suggests that we should strive for a better understanding and representation of soil processes in ecosystem models to improve the reliability of predictions of future ecosystem changes.     

Overcoming cross-scale challenges to climate change adaptation for local government: a focus on Australia

This paper aims to identify key cross-scale challenges to planned adaptation within the context of local government in Australia, and suggest enabling actions to overcome such challenges. Many of the impacts of climate change and variability have or will be experienced at the local level. Local governments are embedded in a larger governance context that has the potential to limit the effectiveness of planned adaptation initiatives on the ground. This study argues that research on constraints and barriers to adaptation must place greater attention to understanding the broader multi-governance system and cross-scale constraints that shape adaptation at the local government scale. The study identified seven key enabling actions for overcoming cross-scale challenges faced by local governments in Australia when undertaking climate change adaptation planning and implementation. A central conclusion of this study is that a cooperative and collaborative approach is needed where joint recognition of the scale of the issue and its inherent cross-scale complexities are realised. Many of the barriers or constraints to adaptation planning are interlinked, requiring a whole government approach to adaptation planning. The research suggests a stronger role at the state and national level is required for adaptation to be facilitated and supported at the local level.     

A novel approach to fireball modeling: The observable and the calculated

Estimating the mass of a meteoroid passing through the Earth's atmosphere is essential to determining potential meteorite fall positions. High‐resolution fireball images from dedicated camera networks provide the position and timing for fireball bright flight trajectories. There are two established mass determination methods: the photometric and the dynamic. A new approach is proposed, based on the dynamic method. A dynamic optimization initially constrains unknown meteoroid characteristics which are then used in a parametric model for an extended Kalman filter. The extended Kalman filter estimates the position, velocity, and mass of the meteoroid body throughout its flight, and quantitatively models uncertainties. Uncertainties have not previously been modeled so explicitly and are essential for determining fall distributions for potential meteorites. This two‐step method aims to automate the process of mass determination for application to any trajectory data set and has been applied to observations of the Bunburra Rockhole fireball. The new method naturally handles noisy raw data. Initial and terminal bright flight mass results are consistent with other works based on the established photometric method and cosmic ray analysis. A full analysis of fragmentation and the variability in the heat‐transfer coefficient will be explored in future versions of the model.