Future climate projections of extreme events can help forewarn society of high-impact events and allow the development of better adaptation strategies. In this study a non-stationary model for Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions is used to analyze the trend in extreme temperatures in the context of a changing climate and compare it with the trend in average temperatures.
The analysis is performed using the climate projections of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM), under an IPCC SRES A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario, over North America. Annual extremes in daily minimum and maximum temperatures are analyzed. Significant positive trends for the location parameter of the GEV distribution are found, indicating an expected increase in extreme temperature values. The scale parameter of the GEV distribution, on the other hand, reveals a decrease in the variability of temperature extremes in some continental regions. Trends in the annual minimum and maximum temperatures are compared with trends in average winter and summer temperatures, respectively. In some regions, extreme temperatures exhibit a significantly larger increase than the seasonal average temperatures.
The CRCM projections are compared with those of its driving model and framed in the context of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 3 (CMIP3) Global Climate Model projections. This enables us to establish the CRCM position within the CMIP3 climate projection uncertainty range. The CRCM is validated against the HadEX2 dataset in order to assess the CRCM representation of temperature extremes in the present climate. The validation is also framed in the context of CMIP3 validation results. The CRCM cold extremes validate better and are closer to the driving model and CMIP3 projections than the hot extremes. 相似文献
A density-dependent numerical groundwater model was applied to study the climate change impact in a shallow aquifer in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, the Saïdia aquifer. The stresses imposed to the model were derived from the IPCC emission scenarios and included recharge variation and sea level rise. The main effect of the climate change in the Saïdia aquifer will be a decrease in renewable resources, which in the worst-case scenario may decrease to 50–60% of present-day values, due to the decline in recharge and to a reduced inflow from the adjacent Triffa aquifer. The water quality will be affected mostly in the area immediately adjacent to the seashore, where salinity may increase up to 30 g/l. Localised areas may see a decrease in salinity due to the induced freshwater recharge from Oued Moulouya River and diminished inflow from high-salinity springs. 相似文献
The Carboniferous carbonates of the Um Bogma Formation of the west-central Sinai include two rock successions. The lower succesion consists of karstic carbonates, intrakarstic products, weathering varieties, manganese deposits, and soil cover. The lower karstic rocks and the associated soil cover are preserved under a rhythmic alternation of dolostone and shale forming the upper rock succession of the Um Bogma Formation. The all over congruent relations between the manganese deposits and the fossilized karst profile, karst products, and the associated pedogenesis demonstrate the role of weathering in the accumulation of these deposits during Carboniferous karstification. It is clear that the manganese oxides were deposited during the mature stage of Carboniferous karstification, i.e., during the soil formation, preceeding initial diagenetic change of the karstic rocks and final deposition of the related late-diagenetic caliche cement. The geochemical behavior of Mn during the karstification and the microbiological processes involved in pedogenesis played an essential role in the concentration of the manganese ore in the subsoil horizon of the paleokarst profile. The Um Bogma Formation has been subjected to another episode of karstification during the Quaternary and resulted in lowering of the landforms of the Carboniferous carbonates and destruction of the Carboniferous karst and the associated manganese deposits in some localities. 相似文献
Summary ?Gabbro Akarem is a Late-Precambrian concentrically-zoned mafic-ultramafic intrusion located along a major fracture zone trending
NE-SW in the Eastern Desert of Egypt. It intruded low-grade metasedimentary rocks, and has a contact metamorphic aureole a
few meters wide. This intrusion comprises a dunite core enveloped by clinopyroxene hornblende-bearing lherzolite, olivine-hornblende
clinopyroxenite and plagioclase hornblendite. The contacts between the rock types are gradational. They have cumulate textures
and the observed crystallization sequence is: olivine ( + cotectic spinel)-orthopyroxene (Opx)-clinopyroxene (Cpx)-hornblende.
Mafic minerals from the core of the intrusion are highly magnesian, a consistent increase in the Mg# of olivine (from 69 to
87), Opx (from 62 to 89), Cpx (from 85 to 96) and hornblends (from 62 to 88) is observed from the mafic to the ultramafic
units. Spinel has a wide range of Cr# and Mg# ratios. The various rock units define a fractionation trend. The mafic rocks
are slightly LREE-enriched relative to the ultramafic units and chondrites.
In many aspects, the Gabbro Akarem intrusion is similar to Alaskan-type complexes. Mineralogical and geochemical data suggest
that the different rock units were fractionated from a hydrous picritic magma with no apparent crustal contamination. A petrogenetic
model involving a rapid rise of hydrous mantle magma along a major fracture zone is proposed. Extensive fractional crystallization
led to magma chamber stratification; internal circulation and strong vertical stretching up the center of the rapidly rising
diapir increased the rate of magma ascent towards the core. Due to cooling and high viscosity the marginal mafic magma was
partly crystallized while the unsolidified core ultramafic magma continued its ascent. As a result, different mineral phases
crystallized at different pressure-temperature paths. Field relations, geophysical, petrological and experimental studies
support this model which explains many of the characteristics of the Gabbro Akarem and some other concentrically zoned mafic-ultramafic
intrusions.
Received April 24, 2001; revised version accepted November 20, 2001 相似文献
The assessment of anthropogenic impact in the urban environment can be evaluated according to heavy metal contents of soils such as Pb, Cu, Zn, Cd and Fe. These elements have more affinity to establish metallic bond with ferrous material leading to enhancement of soil magnetic susceptibility. The objective of this study was to undertake joint magnetic and geochemical investigations of road-side urban soil materials to address the environmental pollution of Beni Mellal city that has been subjected to environmental stress, due to population overpressure and related urbanization. Twenty three soils magnetic susceptibility profiles were made along 5 km peripheral national road (N8) in Beni Mellal. The magnetic survey reported here for the first time on this City’s topsoils tries to establish the link between magnetic properties and the content of heavy metals. High magnetic susceptibility values and high contents of heavy metals were found near the paved edge of the road and within the place reserved as large engine park. Magnetic extracts of highly polluted areas and unpolluted soil (olive plantation) were analyzed by SEM coupled with RDX in order to discriminate anthropogenic magnetic spherules and pedo-lithogenic magnetite-like minerals. Magnetic mineralogy determined by Mössbauer spectroscopy suggests the presence of hematite, magnetite and goethite in highly polluted areas. The iron oxides and especially goethite are efficient in incorporating and/or adsorbing foreign ions. 相似文献
In the current study, an integration of Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), field, and laboratory data have been used for lithological mapping of different granitic phases in the Kadabora area, Eastern Desert, Egypt. Application of enhancement techniques, including a new proposed band ratio combination (ratio 5/3, 3/1, 7/5 in RGB, respectively) and supervised classification images are used in discriminating different granitic phases in the Kadabora pluton from each other and from their environs. The data have been proved with the help of field and geochemical investigations. The results revealed that: (1) the Kadabora granitic pluton could be distinguished into three phases that recognized by field and laboratory investigation including granodiorite (phase I), monzogranite (phase II), and syeno-alkali feldspar granite (phase III). These phases are arranged according to their relative ages while the country rocks include ophiolitic mélange and metagabbro–diorite complex. It is also confirmed that the granitic pluton is invaded by dyke swarms which is trending in N–S direction. Geochemically, results show that the granodiorite is calc-alkaline, I-type and formed under subduction tectonic regime. Monzogranite falls within the alkaline and highly fractionated calc-alkaline granites, whereas syeno-alkali feldspar granite extends into proper alkaline granitoids field. Monzogranite and syeno-alkali feldspar granite belong to the A2-subtype granite. This A2-subtype granite was probably formed in an extensional regime, subsequent to subduction which can lead to tensional break-up of the crust (i.e., post-collisional, post-orogenic granites). The monzogranite and the syeno-alkali feldspar granite were probably formed by partial melting of relatively anhydrous lower crust source and/or tonalite to granodiorite is viable alternative to the granulite source. 相似文献
The paper presents results of a laboratory experimental program performed on limestone rock samples, using both physical and mechanical methods. The studied rocks (Simsima Formation, Upper Cretaceous) can be classified as highly ferruginous and highly fossilliferous limestone. The lower part of the Simsima Formation contains common fauna such as Orbittoids, rhodolithic and rudists, whereas the upper part of the limestone is interbedded with conglomerates. Detailed geological, petrographic in addition to physical and mechanical tests were carried out on some representative samples from the Faiyah area, aiming at getting a better understanding of the important properties of these rocks. It is shown that the uniaxial unconfined compressive stress is the controlling factor of classification of the Faiyah limestone. 相似文献
We have constructed a reaction system containing the chemical families of H, C, O, N, S, Si, Cl, metals (Me) and grains. A total of 104 species have been included and a network of 557 reactions has been studied. The chemical kinetic equations were integrated as a function of time by using gear program. The chemical reaction system was followed at low, intermediate and high cloud densities i.e. from 10–107 particles cm-3. The calculated fractional abundances of N2, CN, HCN, and CH which are in good agreement with the results of observations and with those of previous theoretical studies. 相似文献