Regularized Bayesian estimation for GEV-B-splines model

Large observed datasets are not stationary and/or depend on covariates, especially, in the case of extreme hydrometeorological variables. This causes the difficulty in estimation, using classical hydrological frequency analysis. A number of non-stationary models have been developed using linear or quadratic polynomial functions or B-splines functions to estimate the relationship between parameters and covariates. In this article, we propose regularised generalized extreme value model with B-splines (GEV-B-splines models) in a Bayesian framework to estimate quantiles. Regularisation is based on penalty and aims to favour parsimonious model especially in the case of large dimension space. Penalties are introduced in a Bayesian framework and the corresponding priors are detailed. Five penalties are considered and the corresponding priors are developed for comparison purpose as: Least absolute shrinkage and selection (Lasso and Ridge) and smoothing clipped absolute deviations (SCAD) methods (SCAD1, SCAD2 and SCAD3). Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been developed for each model to estimate quantiles and their posterior distributions. Those approaches are tested and illustrated using simulated data with different sample sizes. A first simulation was made on polynomial B-splines functions in order to choose the most efficient model in terms of relative mean biais (RMB) and the relative mean-error (RME) criteria. A second simulation was performed with the SCAD1 penalty for sinusoidal dependence to illustrate the flexibility of the proposed approach. Results show clearly that the regularized approaches leads to a significant reduction of the bias and the mean square error, especially for small sample sizes (n < 100). A case study has been considered to model annual peak flows at Fort-Kent catchment with the total annual precipitations as covariates. The conditional quantile curves were given for the regularized and the maximum likelihood methods.     

利用瞬变电磁和多频电磁方法监测地下水位及其对Hawara遗址的影响

利用瞬变电磁（TEM）和地面电磁（GEM）方法,本文研究了埃及Hawara遗址区的地下水对遗址的影响.这个遗址包括Hawara金字塔、北区墓地、以及被称作“迷宫”的南区墓葬场所.现今Hawara遗址已经完全荒废,被耕作区和Bahr Wahba运河包围.地表水和地下水会破坏Hawara金字塔和“迷宫”遗址的地基,现在金字塔入口已被淹没至地面下约6 m深处.本文在耕作区、金字塔以及“迷宫”等三个地区进行了TEM勘察;在“迷宫”地区进行了GEM勘察.综合分析以上两种勘察数据,我们发现,农业灌溉是浸入到地下的水的主要来源;本地区地下水位随着观测点及海拔的不同,在地面以下2~7 m之间变化.     

Factors and processes of permanent gully evolution in a Mediterranean marly environment (Cape Bon,Tunisia)

Abstract

Gully erosion is considered to be one of the most important soil erosion processes in Mediterranean marly environments, but its actual contribution to total soil loss is still under discussion. The objectives of this paper are: (a) to acquire the distributed value of erosion rate in a permanent gully developed on a marly substratum in a Mediterranean environment; and (b) to quantify the key factors responsible for the spatial and temporal differences in erosion rates observed within the gully. A permanent gully located in Cap Bon (northeastern Tunisia) has been intensively and regularly monitored over a 7-year period with electronic survey equipment (total station) to give five field topographic surveys, as well as hydrological measurements at the gully outlet. The net soil loss for the 7-year period comprised a denudation of 51 m³ of sediment on the gully bank slopes, which corresponds to a mean soil loss of 61 m³ ha^?1 year^?1 or 6.1 mm year^?1. Denudation was observed on bed units with a slope gradient greater than 20%, while the remainder showed deposition. By confirming the factors involved in gully evolution, and by refining the statistical link between factors and erosion rates within the gully, the results provide important information to predict gully erosion rates in Mediterranean marly environments.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor G. Mahé

Citation El Khalili, A., Raclot, D., Habaieb, H., and Lamachère, J.M., 2013. Factors and processes of permanent gully evolution in a Mediterranean marly environment (Cape Bon, Tunisia). Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (7), 1519–1531.     

Hydrology and geomorphology of the Upper White Nile lakes and their relevance for water resources management in the Nile basin

Remote sensing data and digital elevation models were utilized to extract the catchment hydrological parameters and to delineate storage areas for the Ugandan Equatorial Lakes region. Available rainfall/discharge data are integrated with these morphometric data to construct a hydrological model that simulates the water balance of the different interconnected basins and enables the impact of potential management options to be examined. The total annual discharges of the basins are generally very low (less than 7% of the total annual rainfall). The basin of the shallow (5 m deep) Lake Kioga makes only a minor hydrological contribution compared with other Equatorial Lakes, because most of the overflow from Lake Victoria basin into Lake Kioga is lost by evaporation and evapotranspiration. The discharge from Lake Kioga could be significantly increased by draining the swamps through dredging and deepening certain channel reaches. Development of hydropower dams on the Equatorial Lakes will have an adverse impact on the annual water discharge downstream, including the occasional reduction of flow required for filling up to designed storage capacities and permanently increasing the surface areas of water that is exposed to evaporation. On the basis of modelling studies, alternative sites are proposed for hydropower development and water storage schemes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Anhydrite pseudomorphs and the origin of stratiform Cu–Co ores in the Katangan Copperbelt (Democratic Republic of Congo)

The stratiform Cu–Co ore mineralisation in the Katangan Copperbelt consists of dispersed sulphides and sulphides in nodules and lenses, which are often pseudomorphs after evaporites. Two types of pseudomorphs can be distinguished in the nodules and lenses. In type 1 examples, dolomite precipitated first and was subsequently replaced by Cu–Co sulphides and authigenic quartz, whereas in type 2 examples, authigenic quartz and Cu–Co sulphides precipitated prior to dolomite and are coarse-grained. The sulphur isotopic composition of the copper–cobalt sulphides in the type 1 pseudomorphs is between −10.3 and 3.1‰ relative to the Vienna Canyon Diablo Troilite, indicating that the sulphide component was derived from bacterial sulphate reduction (BSR). The generation of during this process caused the precipitation and replacement of anhydrite by dolomite. A second product of BSR is the generation of H₂S, resulting in the precipitation of Cu–Co sulphides from the mineralising fluids. Initial sulphide precipitation occurred along the rim of the pseudomorphs and continued towards the core. Precipitation of authigenic quartz was most likely induced by a pH decrease during sulphide precipitation. Fluid inclusion data from quartz indicate the presence of a high-salinity (8–18 eq. wt.% NaCl) fluid, possibly derived from evaporated seawater which migrated through the deep subsurface. ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios of dolomite in type 1 nodules range between 0.71012 and 0.73576, significantly more radiogenic than the strontium isotopic composition of Neoproterozoic marine carbonates (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7056–0.7087). This suggests intense interaction with siliciclastic sedimentary rocks and/or the granitic basement. The low carbon isotopic composition of the dolomite in the pseudomorphs (−7.02 and −9.93‰ relative to the Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite, V-PDB) compared to the host rock dolomite (−4.90 and +1.31‰ V-PDB) resulted from the oxidation of organic matter during BSR.     

Paleogeography and paleomagnetism of the Nubian Sandstone Eastern Desert of Egypt

The present work gives the results of the paleomagnetic investigations carried out on the Cretaceous Nubian Sandstone and associated volcanics and hematitic oolitic iron ores in the Eastern Desert of Egypt. The paleogeography of the Nubian Sandstone especially for the Eastern Desert is discussed in the light of the various geological data as well as the paleomagnetic results, both of which point to certain conceptions. The position of the paleoequator and paleolatitude 20° S were derived from the paleomagnetic data indicating that the Nubian Sandstone was originally deposited in the paleoequatorial to subequatorial zone. The paleomagnetic results corroborate previous African data that there has been no polar wandering and continental drift for Africa during 210 to 110 million years and extend this period to 85 million years.It is concluded that the Nubian Sandstone is deposited under tropical to subtropical climate and that it is formed under various continental conditions excluding eolian merging intermittently into shallow marine.

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Zusammenfassung Die vorliegende Arbeit ist das Ergebnis paläomagnetischer Untersuchungen, die in kretazischer Nubischer Serie und zugehörigen vulkanischen Gesteinen sowie in hämatitischoolithischen Eisenerzen in der östlichen Wüste in Ägypten durchgeführt wurden. Es wird die Paläogeographie der Nubischen Serie, besonders der östlichen Wüste, diskutiert, einmal anhand verschiedener geologischer Beobachtungen und darüber hinaus anhand der paläomagnetischen Daten; beides weist auf ähnliche Deutungen hin. Die Lage des Paläoäquators und des Paläobreitenkreises 20° S zeigt an, daß die Nubische Serie in der Umgebung des damaligen Äquators abgelagert wurde. Die paläomagnetischen Ergebnisse bestätigen frühere afrikanische Daten, nach denen keine Kontinentaldrift für diesen Raum zwischen 210 und 110 Mill. Jahren stattfand, und erweitern diese Periode bis 85 Mill. Jahre. Es wird angenommen, daß die Nubische Serie in tropischem bis subtropischem Klima abgelagert wurde, und zwar unter den verschiedensten kontinentalen Ablagerungsbedingungen.

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Résumé Le présent travail est le résultat des recherches paléomagnétiques effectuées sur le grès nubien crétacé, les volcanites associées et les minerais de fer hématitiques et oolithiques dans le désert oriental de l'Egypte. La paléogéographie du grès nubien, surtout celui du désert oriental, est discutée à la lumière des différentes observations géologiques variées et, en outre, des données paléomagnétiques; toutes deux concluent a la même signification. La position du paléoéquateur et de la paléolatitude 20° S montre que la série nubienne a été déposée dans le domaine proche de l'équateur relatif à cette époque.Les résultats paléomagnétiques corroborent les données africaines antérieures d'après lesquelles il n'y aurait pas eu, pour ces régions, de dérive continentale entre 210 à 110 millions d'années; ils prorogent cette période jusqu'à 85 millions d'années.On admet que le grès nbien fut déposé sous le climat tropical à sub-tropical et effectivement sous les différentes conditions de dépôt continentales.

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A comparison of surface fitting algorithms for geophysical data

Many treatments in geophysics require regular grids of data. Since the data are generally recorded irregularly (e.g. gravity measurements along roads) or even on tracks (e.g. satellite measurements), it is necessary to grid the observed data. We present the result of a comparison of various surface fitting algorithms carried out in order to check their reliability. Two different types of sampling have been verified: (i) clouds of points and (ii) points along tracks. Five algorithms have been extensively tested: (1) polynomial fit, (2) algorithm using a combination of spline-laplace, (3) krigeage (4) least-squares fitting method, and (5) finite element method. The suitability of each method for different sets of data and the limitations (in terms of amplitude and gradient) are discussed.     

Adaptation to climate change in desertified lands of the marginal regions in Egypt through sustainable crop and livestock diversification systems

Environmental degradation resulting from current climate changes, including prolonged drought, land degradation, desertification, and loss of biodiversity, is presenting enormous challenges to achieve ...